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Start Em Sit Em Week 1: Breaking Down Toughest Fantasy Football Lineup Decisions

Mike ChiariSep 3, 2013

While it's obvious that any fantasy owner who drafted the likes of Drew Brees, Adrian Peterson and Jimmy Graham are going to start those players regardless of which team they face on a weekly basis, almost every owner is faced with difficult lineup decisions when it comes to borderline guys.

Making the right decision could lead you to victory, but one misstep could put a crucial loss on your record. Every owner wants to get off to a great start as it sets the tone for the rest of the season. Having to dig yourself out of a hole is never fun, so doing everything possible to win Week 1 is of the utmost importance.

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Here is a look at some of the most difficult lineup decisions you may face this week, as well as analysis on how you should handle them.

Start 'Em: QB Ben Roethlisberger (PIT)

Depending upon how big your league is, Roethlisberger is a borderline fantasy starter. There are likely owners out there who missed out on the top quarterbacks available, so they have decided to play matchups on a week-to-week basis. Big Ben won't always be an advisable start, but he is in Week 1.

The Steelers have an awful running game situation with Isaac Redman as the de facto starter, so they'll be throwing plenty on Sunday. Also, the Tennessee Titans were among the worst pass defenses in the league last season as they allowed 31 passing touchdowns, which was second-worst in the NFL. Roethlisberger should have a solid day.

Sit 'Em: QB Andy Dalton (CIN)

Like Roethlisberger, Dalton is a guy who shouldn't necessarily be counted upon as a fantasy starter every week. He can be very useful in the right situation; however, it wouldn't be wise to use him this week as he'll have to contend with the stingy Chicago Bears defense.

The Bears made life miserable for opposing signal callers last season as they led the league with 24 interceptions, allowed just 19 passing touchdowns and gave up about 214 passing yards per contest.

Knowing that Cincinnati will probably lean on the running game, so Dalton's ceiling will be capped.

Start 'Em: RB Ahmad Bradshaw (IND)

Injuries have long been a concern for Bradshaw, and that continues to be the case. When he is on the field, though, he normally produces as he is a capable touchdown scorer and a solid pass receiver as well. Owners may have some reservations when it comes to playing Bradshaw this week, but he is expected to be ready for Week 1, according to NFL Fantasy Football on Twitter.

Also, Bradshaw may not have an easier matchup all year as the Colts will face the Oakland Raiders. Oakland was in the middle of the pack in terms of rushing yards allowed last season, but they gave up more than one rushing score per game on average with 18. Also, Indy figures to take an early lead, so it will need to run the ball late in order to preserve it.

Sit 'Em: RB Chris Ivory (NYJ)

Ivory is one of the biggest running back sleepers heading into the season as he will have the first opportunity of his career to truly be the go-to guy this season. With that said, you would be best off pumping the breaks in Week 1. Ivory is probably a flex candidate for most of the people who own him, but it's hard to imagine him putting up respectable numbers this week.

For starters, Ivory will have to contend with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' run defense. The Bucs had the No. 1 run defense in the league last season as they gave up just 82.5 yards per game on the ground. Also, the Jets are awful as a whole, so this could be a one-sided affair. If that is the case, the run game may very well be abandoned by the second half.

Start 'Em: WR Cecil Shorts (JAC)

Shorts was one of last season's most-surprising breakout players, and he'll look to build on that momentum in 2013. He certainly has an advantageous schedule to start as the Jaguars will take on the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 1. Also, quarterback Blaine Gabbert is on track to start at quarterback, according to Pro Football Talk, so Shorts will have familiar surroundings.

Gabbert admittedly is one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league, but he made progress during the preseason and should be an asset to Shorts. Most importantly, the Chiefs allowed 29 passing touchdowns last season, so Shorts will be a definite threat to score. Also, with Justin Blackmon suspended for the first four weeks of 2013, Shorts is the only game in town when it comes to Jags receivers.

Sit 'Em: WR Steve Smith (CAR)

Smith has been one of the best and most consistent pass-catchers in the NFL over the past several years, and he is almost always a safe fantasy start. With the emergence of the passing game in the NFL, though, it seems like there are more quality receivers than ever. Smith is now a low-end No. 2 and high-end No. 3 receiver option in fantasy terms, so he is going to be a borderline starter on a weekly basis.

If you can afford to, you should keep Smith on the bench this week. The Panthers have an incredibly tough matchup against the Seattle Seahawks, which means Smith will be covered by cornerback Richard Sherman. Since Sherman is arguably the best corner in the league, and Seattle's pass defense as a whole is great, Smith is going to have a difficult time making any big plays on Sunday.

Start 'Em: TE Fred Davis (WAS)

Most fantasy owners are going to have a heck of a time deciding which tight end to start on a weekly basis this season as there is so much uncertainty outside the top five or six guys. Davis is one tight end that will be under consideration throughout the year depending upon his matchup. Davis happens to have a great one in Week 1, so he'll be a nice, sneaky play.

The Redskins have a Monday Night Football battle against the division rival Philadelphia Eagles on tap, and it could potentially be a shootout. With Chip Kelly pulling the strings for the Eagles' new-look offense, Washington will want to keep pace. Philly gave up the most passing touchdowns in the league last season with 33 against, and with Robert Griffin III likely to take it easy with his legs to start, Davis will be a great safety valve for him.

Sit 'Em: TE Martellus Bennett (CHI)

The Bears have gotten absolutely no production out of the tight end position since dealing Greg Olsen to the Carolina Panthers, but they are hoping that will change with the arrival of Bennett. The big, athletic tight end got his first taste of being a starter last season with the New York Giants, and he had a career year. Bennett could potentially put up even bigger numbers this year, but Week 1 could be a tough one.

Cincinnati has one of the best past defenses in the league as the Bengals allowed 212.5 passing yards per game last season and just 16 passing touchdowns. Since the bulk of quarterback Jay Cutler's attention goes to Brandon Marshall anyway, Bennett may be an afterthought in this game. Both teams seem likely to run the ball and play strong defense, so Bennett probably won't have more than a couple of catches.

Start 'Em: D/ST Indianapolis Colts

One of the most popular strategies among fantasy football owners is streaming defenses. Rather than spending a high pick on a defense as some people inexplicably do, it's often best to pick up the defense with the best matchup on a weekly basis in order to maximize scoring. It's far from foolproof, but it's a strategy that has worked well for me in the past. This week, I'm endorsing the Colts defense for that very strategy.

Indy certainly doesn't have one of the league's best defenses, but it could be great against the punchless Oakland Raiders. That is especially true now that the Raiders have committed to starting Terrelle Pryor at quarterback, according to Vic Tafur of the San Francisco Chronicle.

Pryor is extremely talented, but he's also inexperienced and mistake prone. It's difficult to imagine the Raiders putting up a lot of points in this game, so even if the Colts don't force a ton of turnovers, they'll have a respectable outing.

Sit 'Em: D/ST Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens have had one of the NFL's best defenses for many years, but this isn't the same Baltimore defense that won the Super Bowl last February. Linebacker Ray Lewis and a slew of other starters are out of the picture, and it's going to take some time for the team to gel. Unfortunately, they won't have much of an opportunity to settle in as they will face the Denver Broncos' explosive offense in Thursday's season opener.

With Peyton Manning, Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker and Eric Decker to contend with, the Ravens defensive backs will have their hands full. Also, the Broncos have revenge in mind after Baltimore ousted them in the playoffs last season. The Ravens defense should be better than most expect over the course of the season, but Week 1 is going to be a major struggle.

Follow @MikeChiari on Twitter

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