Ranking the 10 Most Unforeseen Stars of the 2013 MLB Season

Imagine an MLB player whose WAR (win-above-replacement) has never been greater than 1.3 during his five-year career. Imagine that same player has never managed a 90-RBI season and has never hit .300 for a year. This player has also averaged about one strikeout every three at-bats.

Would you, in your wildest dreams, expect this player to currently be ranked in the top three in runs, doubles, home runs, RBI, slugging percentage, and OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage)?

As a matter of fact, he does exist and his name is Chris Davis (pictured above). The Orioles first baseman leads the majors with 46 home runs and could not have done so in more surprising fashion.

Or could he?

Perhaps a rookie made a bigger splash this year, or maybe an unsung hero being mentioned as one of the game's best leadoff hitters has been more surprising.

Whether it's a rookie sensation straight from Cuba or an aging starting pitcher whose career was all but decided, baseball finds a way to surprise us every year with a few unexpected superstars.

When Toronto Blue Jays outfielder Jose Bautista began changing his stance at the plate in 2008, no one cared. But by the end of the 2010 season, this average-at-best hitter had become the recipient of the Silver Slugger Award and the Hank Aaron Award, the year's home run champion, and a first-time All-Star.

He hit 54 home runs that season when he only managed 74 to that point in his career (2004-2009).

Understandably, this list may draw impassioned disagreement, but this ranking is based on two big criteria: statistical success in 2013 and relative anonymity in 2012. It lies with me to determine how much emphasis one criteria holds over the other, but my goal is to find a happy middle-ground.

Just as we could not have screamed, "They are who we thought they were!" when Bautista burst onto the home run-hitting scene, we cannot foresee every curveball baseball has to throw at us.

The following list contains 10 players who have come seemingly out of nowhere this year. Compared with their other seasons (if they even have any), 2013 has been especially kind to them.

*ESPN Statistics were used unless otherwise noted

Honorable Mentions

The Replacement Yankees

After losing major pieces including Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Mark Texiera, Michael Pineda, Joba Chamberlain, Curtis Granderson, Ivan Nova, Francisco Cervelli and Kevin Youkilis for the better part of 2013, countless second-string Yankees have stepped up and kept the ship afloat.

The injury bug turned the Bronx Bombers into the Bronx Bunters, but thanks to small ball, the Replacement Yankees are maintaining a record above .500, giving the battered team at least a fighting chance at the postseason.

Key performers include Eduardo Nunez, Lyle Overbay, Alfonso Soriano, Jayson Nix, Chris Stewart, Shawn Kelley and Preston Claiborne.

Marlon Byrd

Three-quarters through his 12th year in the big leagues, Marlon Byrd should not be exceeding previous season highs. Sitting on the highest single-season home run total (21) and OPS (.856) of his career, Byrd has apparently enjoyed the move to New York.

Even though he has usually been known more as a guy who hits for average and a run scorer rather than a home run and RBI man, Byrd's success would not floor the average baseball statistician. His multiple seasons of near-.300 AVG reveal his raw hitting ability. He deserves an honorable mention because of how bad he was in 2012 (Byrd mustered a .210 AVG in only 143 at-bats).

Paul Goldschmidt

Would you be happy with this stat line? .286 AVG, 20 HR, 86 RBI. Those are the numbers Goldschmidt put up in 2012. He is making the Honorable Mention list because his 2013 stats have already blown those out of the water. With a .296 AVG, 31 HR and 100 RBI resume, Goldschmidt is having an impressive year, but because of the potential shown during his first two years, season three's numbers raise my eyebrows, but are not necessarily unforeseen.

Bartolo Colon

The only reason Colon avoided the actual list was because perhaps his "surprise" success should not be a surprise after all. Last season Colon shocked the baseball world when, at the age of 39, he was putting up numbers like he hadn't since 2005—the last year he managed double-digit wins and the year he won the Cy Young Award.

With his 2013 numbers, Colon is making a convincing argument that his career is indeed revitalized, and with two consecutive years of proof, maybe we should start jumping on the bandwagon.

He is currently flaunting a 2.97 ERA. The only other time in his 16-year career he was under 3.00 was in 2002.

10. Patrick Corbin

Position: Starting Pitcher

Team: Arizona Diamondbacks

Patrick Corbin finds himself onto this list because he is currently 13-3 with the sixth-best ERA in Major League Baseball (2.45). He has two complete games under his belt and his impressive stats earned him his first All-Star appearance (Interestingly enough, Corbin actually took the Loss for the National League in the game).

In 2012, his rookie year, Corbin started 17 games for the Diamondbacks and finished 6-8 with a 4.54 ERA. His WHIP was a dangerous 1.33 and his job was not set in stone going into 2013.

Because Corbin's rookie season wasn't necessarily terrible, he only finds himself at No. 10 on the list, but his sophomore success and tricky delivery have even impressed the likes of John Smoltz.

9. Chris Johnson

Position: Third Base

Team: Atlanta Braves

Hitting .330 on the year, second only to Yadier Molina (.332) in the NL among qualified players, Chris Johnson has found his groove in Atlanta. Other than his average, Chris Johnson doesn't have any other impressive accomplishments on the year.

In addition, his previous four years in the pros were not bad. He hit .308 in 2010, .251 in 2011 and .281 in 2012. It is unexpected for him to be competing for the batting title—and apparently he is not concerning himself with the chase—but not beyond belief.

A guy who has hovered around .300 for a couple years is obviously a good hitter already, and that is why Johnson only lands at No. 9 despite his relative anonymity in 2012 and impressive batting average.

8. Jean Segura

Position: Shortstop

Team: Milwaukee Brewers

As USA Today's Ron Shandler stated, Jean Segura's unlikely success in 2013 may hit a wall soon, but this being a ranking based on what you've done and not what you're going to do, Segura can sit comfortably at No. 8 on this list forever.

With just 151 at-bats last season, Segura only had a chance to get his feet wet in the majors. This year, as the starting shortstop for a struggling Brewers team, Segura has impressed with a .306 AVG and 12 home runs (he hit 0 home runs in 2012). The unexpected power boost and consistency at the dish are the main reasons why he ranks slightly more surprising than Johnson.

Segura has also found his way into the top 10 for multiple offensive stats. His 9 triples are tied for second, his 37 stolen bases are tied for third, his 152 hits are seventh and his 496 at-bats are tied for 10th.

7. Josh Donaldson

Position: Third Base

Team: Oakland Athletics

It seems like Billy Beane and the fellows down in Oakland are up to their old tricks again and are still playing "Moneyball" into the 2013 season.

Who is Josh Donaldson? Exactly. 

With a salary around $500,000 and a stat line of .295/18/71 as well as a relatively high walk rate (.108) and number of pitches seen (2127), Donaldson was a steal for the Athletics organization. His importance to the team is evidenced by his 5.2 WAR, 13th in the league.

Considering he hit just .241 last season, played the full 2011 season in triple-A (hit just .261) and only managed 32 MLB at-bats in 2010, it's fair to say that Donaldson's numbers are a surprise.

He sits at a modest No. 7 because although very unexpected, his numbers, in-and-of-themselves, are not flooring.

6. Jose Fernandez

Position: Starting Pitcher

Team: Miami Marlins

The first Cuban rookie sensation to break the top-10 unforeseen stars rankings, Jose Fernandez finds himself in quite the predicament playing in Miami.

Frankly, he is probably not in the majors this early if he is in any other system (save, perhaps, the Astros). The same organization that gave him an opportunity, however, may be the only thing standing between him and the NL Rookie of the Year Award (other than No. 1 on this list, of course): the Marlins are likely to cut Fernandez off at around 170 innings to ensure the youngster doesn't throw his arm out in his first season.

Fernandez, who turned 21 this July, was fairly successful during his 2012 minor league campaign, but even the Marlins' organization could not have foreseen their 14th overall pick from 2011 making such a significant MLB impact so early in his career.

He represented the Marlins at this year's All-Star Game and took home Rookie of the Month honors in July.

Fernandez's current numbers put him in elite company. He is one of five starting pitchers with at least 100 innings who has given up less than 100 hits and Fernandez has the most innings (145.2) of that group (we will meet another member of this group very soon). The rookie's 2.41 ERA is tied for third best in the league and his 1.02 WHIP ranks fifth.

All this becomes even more impressive when realizing Fernandez went straight from single-A to the majors.

5. Francisco Liriano

Position: Starting Pitcher

Team: Pittsburgh Pirates

Francisco Liriano is the other member on this list who has pitched at least 100 innings and given up less than 100 hits.

Not since 2006 has Liriano finished a season with an ERA under 3.00. With a 2.53 ERA so far in 2013, the lefty in his eighth-year is on pace to have his best complete season yet.

Liriano's 14 wins—tying a career high—are tied with six other pitchers for second in the league, but he has been the most efficient to that number, needing only 19 starts (all other pitchers with 10+ wins have at least 21 starts). So far this season, Liriano boasts his lowest ERA since 2006, the year he was an All-Star and finished third in the Rookie of the Year vote.

A major reason why he is finding success in 2013—other than staying healthy—has been his ability to throw his changeup consistently for strikes, something he wasn't doing in recent years. Also, as Jon Tayler from Sports Illustrated's The Strike Zone points out, Liriano does not throw a four-seamer anymore.

To boot, Liriano started the season on the Pirates' 15-day disabled list, so it was even more unlikely that anyone could have predicted the numbers he is accomplishing.

He ranks slightly more surprising than Fernandez because unlike the Marlins' rookie, we saw Liriano struggle mightily the last two seasons and, consequently, made the educated assumption that his career was on the decline.

4. Matt Carpenter

Position: Second Base

Team: St. Louis Cardinals

Matt Carpenter may be the best leadoff man in Major League Baseball (save Mike Trout). He leads the league in runs scored with 94, tied for sixth with 153 hits, second with 42 doubles and 15th with a 5.0 WAR—the highest on his team. His discipline at the plate has improved as evidenced by his BB/K ratio improving from 0.54 to 0.74 since last year.

He had a fairly impressive rookie campaign in 2012, hitting .294 in 296 at-bats. As the Cardinals starting second baseman and leadoff hitter, however, Carpenter is supplying much more production, setting the table for Allen Craig, Carlos Beltran and Matt Holiday.

Basically, Carpenter has become a star in 2013 when he was essentially a spot starter in 2012. He did contribute solid innings in the face of injuries, but now that he is more important to the Cardinals than ever, he deserves the No. 4 spot.

3. Edward Mujica

Position: Relief Pitcher

Team: St. Louis Cardinals

Before the 2013 season Edward Mujica had more blown saves (13) than saves (4) in his seven-year career.

In his first season as a closer, Mujica has responded amazingly well. As the Cardinals 9th-inning man, he is tied for sixth in the league with 33 saves. His WHIP (0.80) is the lowest of any closer with at least 15 saves.

He has not had success by striking batters out (only 42), but he has not issued many free passes either. With just 3 BB in 56 innings of work, Mujica has been one of the most efficient closers in the game.

Among all pitchers with at least 15 saves, only Joe Nathan and Craig Kimbrel have a higher WAR than Mujica.

As a reliable arm out of the pen during the last two years, it is not shocking to see Mujica putting up some good numbers, but his seamless transition into the closer's role for one of the best teams in baseball has been rather unexpected and worthy to kick off our top 3.

2. Chris Davis

Position: First Base

Team: Baltimore Orioles

Chris Davis is only No. 2 because, contrary to what people may think, he was not a lost cause when he struggled in 2010 and 2011. You should never give up on a 23-year-old. Baseball is tough and it takes a lot of practice to get good at it.

His explosion this year is nothing short of unforeseen, but the power was always there, seemingly just waiting for something to click. In 2012, Davis hit 33 home runs, but his .270 average revealed his tendency as an all-or-nothing hitter.

He currently leads the major leagues with 46 home runs, second in runs scored with 91, third in doubles with 36, second in RBI with 116, first in slugging with .689, and a 6.1 WAR.

The Chris Davis stat that has to have Orioles fans most excited, however, is his .306 BA.

When a player whose career average was .258 is hitting .306 it means he is seeing the ball especially well. Hopefully for the Orioles and Davis himself, this season is just the beginning. Don't expect Davis to become a consistent .300 hitter, because that's just not the kind of hitter he is, but I believe this unforeseen superstar is this year's Jose Bautista and we will see him drop 40+ home runs from now on.

Saying all the above, I don't think anyone saw this coming.

1. Yasiel Puig

Position: Right Field

Team: Los Angeles Dodgers

Yasiel Puig, pictured above driving a pinch-hit, go-ahead home run against the Marlins in the eighth inning of Wednesday's game in Miami, has taken the league by storm since his debut on June 3.

Just 266 at-bats later, Puig has put his hat into the Rookie of the Year conversation. Hitting .346 with 12 home runs and causing controversy with his cocky style, Puig's arrival to the big leagues was a shock to the system. Though he only has a small sample size, his impact has been felt to the tune of a 3.7 WAR (Hanley Ramirez is the only Dodger with a higher WAR [3.9]).

We had heard of a rather expensive signing made by the Dodgers organization in the summer of 2012, but most doubted the sanity of the front office for giving such an unknown talent a 7-year/$42 million contract.

The outfielder played for the Cuban national team before the Dodgers signed him. He performed well in the minors during 2012 and was optioned to Double-A ball despite an impressive 2013 spring training, before being called up this summer.

A relative nobody playing in Cuba just 18 months ago, now the 22-year-old is one of the most recognizable figures in baseball. I would definitely call Puig's rise unforeseeable.