NCAA Tournament 2013: Breaking Down Potential Upset Specials in Sweet 16

Plenty of drama awaits after the initial wave of March Madness, with the Sweet 16 kicking off on Thursday to determine which squads will survive and make it to the regional finals.

An incredible past week of action has the remaining field sporting several tough mid-major programs. Also still alive are perennial powerhouses, but there are some surprising members from less-respected power conferences that have been nothing short of spectacular to date.

Here is a breakdown of the matchups that would be the biggest upsets of the weekend, and the ultimate chances of whether or not they will materialize.

(9) Wichita State Shockers vs. (13) La Salle Explorers—Thursday at 10:17 p.m. ET on TBS

An argument could be made that there are bigger upsets potentially looming for the higher seeds, but this is based on the notion that a No. 13 seed has never made it to the Elite Eight.

While the Shockers weren't expected to get to this position of possibly advancing to the regional finals, the Explorers definitely were not supposed to—and it's shown.

Wichita State has been relatively decisive in both of their victories, even against the West's top seed in Gonzaga. This La Salle squad, though, pulled out its two prior tournament wins on the final possession and could just as easily be sitting at home right now. Heck, the Explorers were in a play-in game.

There isn't much reason to bet against the Shockers.

Their first victory was over a hard-nosed defensive squad in Pittsburgh, which Wichita attacked and shot a ridiculous 41 free throws against. Although they yielded 20 offensive rebounds to the Zags, the Shockers decided to do a perpetual rain dance from beyond the arc, nailing seven three-pointers in a row down the stretch.

That type of clutch play is incredible, but the Explorers clearly know how to pull out a close game. When they beat Ole Miss 76-74, it marked an historic occasion, as ESPN Stats & Info pointed out:

The wild ride ends at this stage for La Salle, unfortunately.

The length and athleticism of forward Cleanthony Early is something the Explorers can't adequately account for, and combined with Carl Hall's physical play on the inside, Wichita should have the edge.

La Salle's backcourt of Ramon Galloway and Tyreek Duren will need to be extraordinary for La Salle to pull this off. But given how well the Shockers have defended their most recent opposition in that regard, it doesn't look good for the Explorers' Cinderella run to continue.

(3) Florida Gators vs. (15) Florida Gulf Coast Eagles—Friday at 9:57 p.m. ET on TBS

So the other 13-or-lower seed in the Sweet 16—you might have heard—is Florida Gulf Coast. This is only the second year the Eagles have been eligible for the NCAA tournament, but courtesy of an Atlantic Sun Conference tournament title, here they are.

A matchup with Billy Donovan's prolific Gators awaits, and this Florida squad certainly presents a lot of challenges for the unprecedented, upstart underdog.

The Eagles are deceptively athletic, and have thrown down several highlight reel dunks to punctuate their stunningly dominant, double-digit victories over Georgetown and San Diego State.

However, the Hoyas' recent struggles in March Madness are well-documented, and their plan to be around "for a while" clearly didn't work out. The Aztecs relied on one player in Jamaal Franklin to drive them to victory. Even in spite of his best efforts, SDSU was in big trouble due to poor defense.

Donovan's squad has no problem with defense. In fact, that is the biggest strength of this team. Patric Young prowls the paint, and even without versatile forward Will Yeguete off the bench, the Gators have figured out how to get it done.

The battle between Florida's Erik Murphy and the Eagles' Chase Fieler will be interesting to watch, but Murphy should definitely have the upper hand.

What will be the difference is the playmaking ability of Gators' guard Kenny Boynton. His quickness and ability to get into the paint will offset any heroics that FGCU standout guard Sherwood Brown can provide, and Brown is likely to be stymied on the perimeter by Florida's outstanding rotation.

Look for Mike Rosario to be the beneficiary of Boynton's slashing ability, and get open looks from beyond the arc which he capitalized on to the tune of a team-high 25 points versus Minnesota.

(1) Louisville Cardinals vs. (12) Oregon Ducks—Friday at 7:15 p.m. ET on CBS

It's easy to argue that the Cardinals have looked like the best team in the country in light of their two commanding victories to kick off their March run.

Despite hailing from a heavily criticized Pac-12 conference and enduring somewhat of a collapse after a 18-2 start to the year, the Ducks are playing some of the best basketball of anyone still remaining.

A very balanced offensive attack led by senior E.J. Singler makes Oregon a legitimate threat to beat any team on any given day. Considering how high the stock is on Louisville despite its modest tournament opponents, this has all the makings of a stunner.

Having said that, it's almost impossible to pick against a Rick Pitino-coached team at this juncture, taking on a No. 12 seed.

Then again, the matchup here isn't too bad. Even with Big East Defensive Player of the Year Gorgui Dieng on the inside, the Ducks have an answer with Arsalan Kazemi. The senior forward is an outstanding rebounder who pulled down 16 rebounds in the third-round win over Saint Louis—seven of which were on the offensive glass.

Four Louisville players score roughly 10 points per game, led by streaky shooter Russ Smith. As hinted at before, the Ducks have similar balance.

Freshman guard Daymean Dotson proved the assertion that multiple Oregon players could explode against the Billikens, as he scored a career-high 24 points on one of the best defensive teams in America.

It's too late to go back and cross out picks on brackets now, but with hindsight being 20/20, this might have been the wacky Sweet 16 upset to pick.

Link to Printable PDF

Link to Live Bracket

 

Follow all the exciting NCAA Tournament action with March Madness Live