College Basketball Conference Power Rankings at Week 18

With the way the 2012-13 college basketball season is going, 50 teams are going to lose in the first round of the NCAA tournament.

In the last week, every team in the Top Five of the AP Poll lost except the one from the “mid-major” conference, and there were 10 total losses from the Top 12 teams. March is going to be pure chaos.

With conference races heating up (or winding down, in the case of the Missouri Valley and West Coast), read on to see how all of these upsets are impacting the conference power rankings.

No. 10: Missouri Valley Conference

Wichita State had the Missouri Valley Conference crown within its grasp and let it slip through its fingertips.

The Shockers lost their one-game lead in the standings after a crushing two-loss week. They kicked it off by inexplicably dropping a game to Evansville for the second time this season and then went into Creighton and were victims of one of the year’s best individual performances across all of college basketball by Doug McDermott.

McDermott’s 41 points gave the Bluejays the regular-season MVC title and capped off a week in which they crushed Bradley as well. It was a rough February for Creighton, so its fans should be encouraged by a great March start.

Elsewhere, Northern Iowa split two games this week and finished third in the standings.

I'd expect a third Wichita State versus Creighton matchup in the conference tournament’s championship contest.

No. 9: West Coast Conference

Considering the fact that Gonzaga plays in the West Coast Conference, it is truly remarkable that it is now the No. 1 team in America. Yes, it is a testament to how topsy-turvy this season has been, but the Zags had to overcome a weaker schedule and mid-major bias in the minds of the voters.

They didn’t get there without a scare, however. BYU gave Gonzaga all it could handle this week in a 70-65 Bulldogs win before the Zags destroyed Portland in the regular-season finale.

It was another disappointing result for BYU against a quality opponent. The Cougars have a grand total of zero victories over marquee teams this year, and barring a run in the West Coast Conference tournament, it will likely cost them a NCAA tournament spot.

As for Saint Mary’s, it was a relatively easy two-win week against Pepperdine and Santa Clara. The Gaels have to be careful not to overlook anyone in the conference tournament, but it would be a surprise if they didn’t get a third chance against mighty Gonzaga in the finals.

No. 8: SEC

RealTimeRPI.com has the SEC ninth in its conference power rankings, but these ones will be slightly less cruel.

To say Saturday was a day to forget for SEC bubble teams would be a massive understatement.

Kentucky—the one everyone is keeping his or her eye on—was steamrolled by an Arkansas team that is nearly unbeatable at home. Alabama blew a sizable lead against Florida, Tennessee dropped a heartbreaker at Georgia and Mississippi lost to Mississippi State.

Yes, you read that right. Ole Miss was beaten by a team that has lost to Troy, Alabama A&M and Vanderbilt by a whopping 41 points.

Even bubble team Arkansas lost to LSU earlier in the week before beating the Wildcats.

The conference-leading Gators are safely in the NCAA tournament and clinched at least a share of the SEC title with the win over the Crimson Tide (let’s be honest, they are going to win it outright). It was an impressive bounce-back effort after losing to Tennessee earlier in the week (that win for the Volunteers could go a long way on Selection Sunday).

Elsewhere, Missouri exorcised some road demons at South Carolina and knocked off LSU.

No. 7: Atlantic 10

So much for those doubts about VCU.

The Rams eviscerated early-season darling Butler by 32 points in their only game of the week. In the process of doing so, they made a strong push for no-brainer status when it comes to a NCAA tournament spot and moved into second place in the Atlantic 10.

It was also the Bulldogs’ only contest of the week, but it was their second straight defeat to the conference's elite teams. It is entirely possible that Butler peaked too soon this year, although it is always wise not to count Brad Stevens out in March.

Meanwhile, the best team in the league is finally starting to get some respect. Saint Louis is climbing in the polls and picked up two more wins against Saint Joseph’s and George Washington. The Billikens control their own destiny for the A-10 crown.

Elsewhere, La Salle destroyed Duquesne in a game it had to have, and Temple continued its late charge with wins over Detroit and Rhode Island. The Owls are making a serious push in bubble discussions, much to the chagrin of many power conference teams in the same precarious position.

No. 6: Pac-12

The Pac-12 may not be the best conference in the country, but the league title race is shaping into one of the most entertaining.

UCLA defended home court against Arizona on Saturday and survived overtime against Arizona State earlier in the week to move into a tie atop the standings with the Oregon Ducks. With two road trips to the Washington schools remaining, the Bruins’ talented freshmen could be celebrating a league title in their first year on campus.

Oregon may have something to say about that, however, after knocking off rival Oregon State. The Ducks have a tricky game at Colorado and then a trip to Utah remaining. If nothing else, there will be plenty of scoreboard watching in the final week.

If either leader trips up, California is sitting one game back in the loss column after knocking off Utah and Colorado. The Golden Bears have won seven straight games, including contests against Oregon, UCLA and Arizona, and have probably done enough to ensure a NCAA tournament bid.

As for the Wildcats, the preseason favorites will have to settle for a decent seed in March in lieu of a conference crown after coming up short against USC and UCLA this week. Colorado hopes it too can make the tournament after splitting games with Stanford and Cal.

No. 5: ACC

Even in defeat, Saturday’s effort at Duke for Miami was one of its best of the season. The Hurricanes fought valiantly against the Cameron Crazies and the inexplicably hot Ryan Kelly, but ultimately came up three points short.

As long as they take care of business against either Georgia Tech or Clemson, they are the regular-season ACC champs.

As for the Blue Devils, the return of Kelly means they are once again one of the nation’s elite teams. Even with a loss to Virginia earlier in the week, it is hard for Duke fans not to be encouraged by where their squad stands at full strength, especially if Kelly consistently plays half as well as he did against Miami.

Meanwhile, rival North Carolina will be dancing after knocking off Clemson and Florida State this week, even if the game against the Tigers was tricky. The same can be said about NC State after victories over Boston College and Georgia Tech.

The ACC inconsistency award of the week goes to Virginia after squandering any momentum it had from a monumental win over Duke. The Cavaliers went to Boston College and were upset by the lowly Eagles, which will not sit well with the Selection Committee. It just continues a season-long pattern for Virginia of beating the good teams and losing to the poor ones.

No. 4: Big 12

Games against Texas Tech and Baylor are all that stand in the way of Kansas clinching at least a share of its (approximately) 450th consecutive Big 12 crown after beating West Virginia this week.

The Jayhawks are tied with Kansas State after the Wildcats stunned Baylor on a buzzer-beating three, but KSU still has to travel to Oklahoma State to close out the season. The Cowboys, who beat Texas and TCU this week, will have their eyes on the No. 2 seed in the Big 12 tournament during that game.

The argument can be made that there is a considerable drop in quality after the top three in the Big 12, especially after Oklahoma blew a commanding second-half lead against lowly Texas this week. The Sooners did bounce back nicely against Iowa State, however, and are basically a lock to make the tournament at this point.

Those Cyclones are not a lock, though, after that game and could really use an upset of Oklahoma State to kick start the final week of the regular season.

No. 3: Mountain West

Almost anyone or any media outlet that has watched or covered college basketball this season is in agreement that the Big Ten is the best conference. Anyone, that is, except the official RPI rankings.

The Mountain West finds itself ahead of the mighty Big Ten and every other league in the latest ratings heading into the stretch run largely due to its lack of poor teams. With only nine squads in the entire conference, five of which are serious NCAA tournament contenders (sorry, Air Force, you can’t lose to Fresno State this late when you’re on the bubble), there is a dearth of the poor teams that other leagues have at the bottom of the standings.

New Mexico clinched the Mountain West title by beating San Diego State and Wyoming this week, but the race for second became very interesting after Colorado State fell to Boise State and UNLV stretched its winning streak to four by beating Nevada.

San Diego State is also in that mix, even after a loss to the first-place Lobos.

Perhaps more interesting is Boise State’s battle to claim a fifth NCAA tournament spot for this league. The Broncos picked up a monumental victory over Colorado State and have golden opportunities against the Aztecs and Rebels to end the season. A split may just be enough.

No. 2: Big East

If you are a Georgetown fan and still have any nails left after this week, give yourself a pat on the back. The Hoyas survived double overtime against Connecticut and then staved off a tricky Rutgers team to stretch their impressive winning streak to 11 and maintain a one-game lead in the Big East.

Louisville, after knocking off Syracuse and DePaul, and Marquette, after beating the Orange and Notre Dame, are right on Georgetown’s tail. Both will likely finish the season strong, so the Hoyas would be wise to push that streak to 13.

Pittsburgh took care of business against South Florida and Villanova, while the Irish lost their only contest of the week to the Golden Eagles. With so many quality teams continuously beating each other, the Big East tournament will be appointment viewing for college basketball followers.

One team that keeps getting beaten is Syracuse, which has now dropped three in a row after falling to Louisville and Marquette. The Orange are running out of time to turn things around.

As for life on the Big East bubble, Villanova took two crippling losses to Seton Hall and Pitt, Cincinnati survived against Shabazz Napier-less Connecticut and St. John’s took an ill-advised loss to Providence.

No. 1: Big Ten

While fans of other conferences will be keeping close tabs on league title races, Big Ten followers are more intrigued by the four-way battle for second.

Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State and Wisconsin are all square with five conference losses and two games remaining, thanks to the Wolverines’ victory over the Spartans and Purdue’s shocking upset of the Badgers in Madison.

Both the Buckeyes and Wolverines (who somehow lost to Penn State this week before beating archrival Michigan State) still have to play Indiana, while the Badgers and Spartans face off with each other next. Barring any upsets, the winner of that head-to-head showdown between Tom Izzo and Bo Ryan will probably have the No. 2 seed in Chicago next week.

The No. 1 seed will belong to Indiana as long as it can beat either Ohio State or Michigan in the final week. The Hoosiers did lose at Minnesota in a game that meant more to the Gophers, but they bounced back impressively against Iowa.

The Golden Gophers made a strong push on the Big Ten bubble by beating Indiana and destroying Penn State. Tubby Smith will undoubtedly be dancing again this season. Illinois, which beat Nebraska in its only game of the week, will likely be joining him as the conference’s seventh bid.