Updating The NFL Draft Trade Value Chart

Back in the 1990s when Jimmy Johnson and the Cowboys created the Trade Value Chart it was revolutionary. The Cowboys manipulated the draft with remarkable efficiency.

As other teams picked up the concept the chart began to lose its value. Part of the problem is the trade value chart has remained a constant over the years.

While the chart varies slightly from team to team it but has not varied from year to year.  Two major considerations have not been taken into account.

First, the economics of draft picks has changed drastically over the years. The value of picks at the top of the drafts have diminished as the salary cap costs have risen.

For example, the number one overall pick in the 2008 draft, Jake Long, received a contract making him one of the highest paid offensive tackles without ever playing a down. The salary cap era also increased the value of the later round picks as well because those players are less expensive than veterans.

Secondly, the players at the top of the draft only hold a lofty value if the players available in those slots are worth the value. The past two drafts have lacked a sure-fire #1 overall pick as groups of players are rated closely together. 

As a result the value of the #1 overall pick is diminished. The 2009 draft follows a similar path as QB Matthew Stafford, OT Jason Smith and OLB Aaron Curry are all considerations at the top of the draft but none of them are considered an instant Pro Bowler. 

The value of the group behind these players including OT Eugene Monroe, WR Michael Crabtree, QB Mark Sanchez, DE Brian Orakpo and DT BJ Raji is not much different either.  When there is not a great disparity among the value of the top players the value of the top picks is again diminished.  

An example of the disparity in the value of top 10 picks can be found in Jacksonville’s trade up from #26 to #8 overall with Baltimore.  According to the trade value chart the 8^th overall selection should have been worth 1,400 points.  

By trading picks 26, 71, 89 and 125 the Jaguars gave up only 1,127 points.  Even with the recommended adjustments in the chart the 8^th pick is 1,350 points and the points given up have only closed the gap from 273 points to 178 points. 

In other words from a chart standpoint the Jaguars still got the better end of the deal just not quite as good.  It just goes to show how hard it is for a team to make a move from the 20s into the top 10.  Which leads to the next point of the trade decision.

As the Ravens-Jaguars trade demonstrates economics and the draft pool lowered the value of the players at the top of the draft.  In addition, with the need to add as many quality young players as possible to one’s roster the value of the later round picks has increased a little as well.

In other words with the supply (i.e. teams wanting to trade) outweighing the demand (team’s wanting to move up), it is time to update the trade value chart. (see chart below). 

With the top overall pick having less value than in the past due to lack of a marquee talent and the increased price tag of the top picks, the baseline has been reduced to 600 points to 2400. The chart then drops 225 points to #2, 175 to #3 and 150 points for picks four and five.

The drop continues to gradually work its way closer to the current chart around pick 18. The side benefit of the new chart is the increased value (at least proportionally) of second round picks.

The value in the draft the past few seasons has been the depth of talent between picks 25-50 and 2009 appears that way as well. The new chart takes this into account as teams in the top 10 should be able to move up 4-5 spots by using their 1st and 2nd rounder.

Teams outside the top 10 need to dig a little deeper to move up but the price is not nearly as prohibitive. A team in the 20s will still need to make a major commitment to get into the top 5.

The late round pick value is increased slightly there is minor tweak to the chart to account for compensation picks after rounds 3, 4, 5, and 6 as those picks can not be traded.

Prior to last year’s Ravens-Jaguars trade, moves into the top 10 had been almost non-existent and the constraints of the trade value chart and subsequent backlash were partially to blame.  Sometimes teams may have determined that they needed to accumulate picks, did not believe a player on the board was worth the draft position’s salary slot or the player the team wanted would be available a few picks later and getting an additional pick allows them to add another player.   It just goes to show if teams at the top of the draft really want to trade down they need to lower their expectations.

The best demonstration of changing expectations is provided by the Carolina Panthers in 1995. The Panthers valued QB Kerry Collins but did not want to pay him #1 money.

They subsequently traded down from the #1 pick in exchange for the 5th overall pick and a 2nd rounder. They still managed to select Collins and acquired another top 40 pick in the process. In the end whether you use the traditional trade chart or the updated one, remember the Draft Trade Chart is a tool not a rule.

Chris Maier is senior editor for NFLDraft101.com.  He can be reached at [e-mail].  Check out our 7 round mock draft coming Monday April 13th. Trade Chart is on the next page or clicking here.

Pick	Round 1	Pick	Round 2	Pick	Round 3	Pick	Round 4	Pick	Round 5	Pick	Round 6	Pick	Round 7
1	2400	33	590	65	275	97	110	129	43.5	161	26.5	193	14.1
2	2175	34	580	66	270	98	107	130	42.7	162	26.1	194	13.8
3	2000	35	570	67	265	99	104	131	41.9	163	25.7	195	13.5
4	1850	36	560	68	260	100	101	132	41.1	164	25.3	196	13.2
5	1700	37	550	69	255	101	98	133	40.3	165	24.9	197	12.9
6	1575	38	540	70	250	102	96	134	39.8	166	24.5	198	12.6
7	1450	39	530	71	245	103	94	135	39.3	167	24.1	199	12.3
8	1350	40	520	72	240	104	92	136	38.8	168	23.7	200	12
9	1250	41	510	73	235	105	90	137	38.3	169	23.3	201	11.7
10	1200	42	500	74	230	106	88	138	37.8	170	23	202	11.4
11	1150	43	490	75	225	107	86	139	37.3	171	22.5	203	11.1
12	1100	44	480	76	220	108	84	140	36.8	172	22.1	204	10.8
13	1050	45	470	77	215	109	82	141	36.3	173	21.7	205	10.5
14	1000	46	460	78	210	110	80	142	35.8	174	21.3	206	10.2
15	975	47	450	79	205	111	78	143	35.3	175	20.9	207	9.9
16	950	48	440	80	200	112	76	144	34.9	176	20.5	208	9.6
17	925	49	430	81	195	113	74	145	34.5	177	20.1	209	9.3
18	900	50	420	82	190	114	72	146	34.1	178	19.7	210	9
19	875	51	410	83	185	115	70	147	33.7	179	19.3	211	8.7
20	850	52	400	84	180	116	68	148	33.3	180	18.9	212	8.4
21	825	53	390	85	175	117	66	149	32.9	181	18.6	213	8.1
22	800	54	380	86	170	118	64	150	32.5	182	18.3	214	7.8
23	780	55	370	87	165	119	62	151	32.1	183	18	215	7.5
24	760	56	360	88	160	120	60	152	31.7	184	17.7	216	7.2
25	740	57	350	89	155	121	58	153	31.3	185	17.4	217	6.9
26	720	58	340	90	150	122	56.5	154	30.9	186	17.1	218	6.6
27	700	59	330	91	145	123	55	155	30.5	187	16.8	219	6.3
28	680	60	320	92	140	124	53.5	156	30.1	188	16.5	220	6
29	660	61	310	93	135	125	52	157	29.7	189	16.2	221	5.7
30	640	62	300	94	130	126	50.5	158	29.3	190	15.9	222	5.4
31	620	63	290	95	125	127	49	159	28.9	191	15.6	223	5.1
32	600	64	280	96	120	128	47.5	160	28.5	192	15.3	224	4.8
				4 comp picks		4 comp picks		5 comp picks		4 comp picks		15 comp picks