March Madness 2013: Why March Is Always 'Madness'

We’ve all been there before.  It’s the classic dinner-table dispute over the quality of any two given sports teams.  For me, the dispute always arises with one of my best friends from Pittsburgh:

The matchup?  A diehard Pitt Panther versus a Penn Stater who bleeds blue and white. 

The result?  A conversation that usually ends up looking a little something like this:

Me:  “Penn State could crush Pitt this year, Pitt looked terrible against Wagner.”

Him: “Stop it, Penn State is an embarrassment to the Big Ten.”

Me:  “Oh really?  Well, we beat South Florida this year, who beat Pitt TWICE!”

Him: “You want that game? Pitt took care against Duquesne, something I believe Penn State couldn’t accomplish.”

A game indeed.  And a game that most of us have probably played our entire lives.  Well, we beat Team X who beat Team Y who crushed Team Z, so theoretically we should handle Team Z with ease.

And it makes sense, right?

I think in mathematical terms it is called the transitive property.  You know, that property we are all brainwashed with in sixth grade?  If a is greater than b, and b is greater than c, then we can conclude that a is greater than c. 

Logical enough…except when it isn’t.  Extrapolation of the property is dangerous.

Take basketball, for instance.  Haven’t you wondered why March Madness is always madness?  Why isn’t there ever a year when the favorites simply win?

So have I.

In the 2011 NFL season, I stumbled upon a graphic the week after the Chiefs knocked off the Packers.  It was entitled, “Any Given Sunday” and it demonstrated how every team in the NFL could be linked, theoretically, to having beat another team. 

Example: The Chiefs beat the Packers who beat the Bears, who beat the…do you get the picture?  It was an absolutely intriguing graphic, and it seemed to show, in a sense, why you had to bring your A-game each and every Sunday.

Then I had a crazy thought.

What if the same could be done for the 2011-12 season of NCAA college basketball?  We weren’t just talking 32 teams here, we were talking about 344.  Yes. Three hundred and forty four.  Was it even possible?  My heart said yes, my brain said no. 

There was only one way to find out. 

So I tried.

And what did I find?  Well naturally, it was possible.  That’s right.  After nearly three-and-a-half weeks of mind-numbing and exhaustive data collecting, the pieces fell into place.

How did it work?  Of course, I started with Penn State.  I had to prove that my favorite team was indeed the best in the land.  At least until I connected the cycle. 

You can find my extensive results listed below.  This should go to prove that any table talk of “this team beat that team so therefore this team is better than that team” is simply fallacious.

The table reads as follows.  Begin with Penn State.  Penn State beat Illinois, 57-54. (Score listed to the right of Illinois).  Illinois beat Ohio State by five, who beat Duke, who beat North Carolina, who beat Michigan State…you get the idea.

But, see?  I had already proved that Penn State theoretically should beat Duke, UNC, MSU and Ohio State.  Golden.   In fact, you can use this table to theoretically prove that any team in the nation is better than any other team in the nation!

Even lowly Navy.

And, ah yes, I almost forgot.  If you are “one of those” people who like to throw scores around, I must set you straight too.  You know who you are.  The people who say, well Central Michigan beat Toledo by 16, who beat Northern Illinois by 30, who beat Miami (Ohio) by three, who then beat Belmont by five.  Therefore, Central Michigan could beat Belmont by at least 50!

Not. So. Fast.

By calculating the margin of victory from every team in my list, who Penn State theoretically would beat, one could come to the conclusion that Penn State should easily beat Kentucky by: wait for it...approximately 3,151 points.

But wait, I almost forgot.  Kentucky and Penn State did play.  Final score?  85-47. 

In favor of Kentucky, naturally.

Team	Score		Margin of Victory
Penn State
Illinois	54	52	2
Ohio State	79	74	5
Duke	85	63	22
North Carolina	85	84	1
Michigan State	67	55	12
Lehigh	90	81	9
Bucknell	56	53	3
Holy Cross	75	41	34
Lafayette	70	63	7
Army	90	74	16
Colgate	79	59	20
Navy	69	63	6
Mount St. Marys	64	56	8
American	49	42	7
St. Joes	66	60	6
Drexel	62	49	13
Virginia Commonwealth	64	58	6
Hofstra	80	63	17
Cleveland State	63	53	10
Vanderbilt	71	58	13
LSU	76	61	15
Marquette	67	59	8
Connecticut	79	64	15
Notre Dame	67	53	14
Syracuse	67	58	9
Georgetown	64	61	3
South Florida	75	45	30
DePaul	75	59	16
Pittsburgh	84	81	3
Providence	86	74	12
Louisville	90	59	31
Seton Hall	60	51	9
West Virginia	67	48	19
Cincinatti	77	74	3
Villanova	82	78	4
St. John's	79	76	3
St. Francis (NY)	63	48	15
Bryant University	80	67	13
St. Francis (PA)	59	56	3
Fairleigh Dickinson	69	63	6
St. Peter's	73	62	11
Canisius	74	60	14
Marist	67	57	10
Loyola Maryland	72	54	18
Iona	87	81	6
Rider	75	62	13
Manhattan	88	77	11
Fairfield	53	51	2
Niagara	77	69	8
Siena	58	54	4
Princeton	63	59	4
Harvard	70	62	8
Pennsylvania	56	50	6
Cornell	54	52	2
Yale	85	84	1
Columbia	59	58	1
Dartmouth	64	62	2
Brown	58	53	5
Rhode Island	65	56	9
Massachusetts	81	78	3
Fordham	80	76	4
George Washington	63	58	5
Charlotte	60	52	8
Richmond	75	70	5
LaSalle	78	76	2
Duquense	71	68	3
St. Bonaventure	66	52	14
Dayton	81	73	8
Temple	87	77	10
St. Louis	72	67	5
Xavier	73	68	5
Southern Illinois	87	77	10
Bradley	77	60	17
Indiana State	68	60	8
Evansville	90	81	9
Creighton	65	57	8
Wichita State	68	61	7
Missouri State	74	67	7
Northern Iowa	61	60	1
Drake	66	52	14
Illinois State	77	60	17
Rutgers	76	70	6
Florida	85	83	2
Alabama	61	52	9
Arkansas	72	66	6
Mississippi State	98	88	10
Tennessee	62	58	4
Auburn	64	49	15
Ole Miss	69	68	1
South Carolina	66	62	4
Georgia	57	56	1
South Dakota State	72	61	11
Oral Roberts	75	60	15
Oakland	93	86	7
Western Illinois	74	70	4
North Dakota State	55	51	4
Southern Utah	72	69	3
IUPUI	72	64	8
South Dakota	88	70	18
UMKC	76	57	19
IPFW	81	66	15
Valparaiso	85	76	9
Loyola Illinois	66	62	4
Illinois Chicago	78	69	9
Youngstown State	72	68	4
Green Bay	77	47	30
Wright State	57	56	1
Milwaukee	70	46	24
Detroit	84	74	10
Butler	76	65	11
Stanford	71	66	5
USC	51	43	8
Utah	62	45	17
Arizona State	64	43	21
Oregon State	76	66	10
UCLA	87	84	3
Washington State	63	60	3
California	77	75	2
Washington	69	66	3
Arizona	79	70	9
Colorado	71	57	14
Air Force	76	73	3
Boise State	74	59	15
TCU	65	64	1
Wyoming	58	52	6
UNLV	68	66	2
Colorado State	82	63	19
New Mexico	71	63	8
San Diego State	77	67	10
Long Beach State	77	73	4
Cal State Fullerton	75	61	14
UC Santa Barbara	99	86	13
UC Riverside	60	52	8
UC Davis	59	54	5
Pacific	73	64	9
Cal State Northridge	62	61	1
Cal Poly	94	81	13
UC Irivine	77	74	3
San Diego	99	79	20
Loyola Marymount	60	57	3
Saint Mary's	75	60	15
Gonzaga	83	62	21
BYU	74	63	11
San Francisco	81	56	25
Pepperdine	78	63	15
Portland	70	65	5
Santa Clara	84	78	6
Eastern Michigan	75	55	20
Ohio	68	55	13
Kent State	87	65	22
Buffalo	76	71	5
Akron	82	70	12
Bowling Green	79	68	11
Ball State	61	54	7
Western Michigan	78	69	9
Central Michigan	64	61	3
Toledo	85	69	16
Northern Illinois	71	41	30
Miami (OH)	62	59	3
Belmont	66	61	5
Mercer	82	78	4
USC Upstate	73	66	7
North Florida	77	52	25
Florida Gulf Coast	88	81	7
East Tennessee State	72	63	9
Lipscomb	66	57	9
Stetson	99	91	8
Kennesaw State	75	59	16
Chattanooga	65	59	6
Western Carolina	78	62	16
Citadel	68	56	12
Appalachian State	62	51	11
ELON	81	66	15
UNC Greensboro	93	79	14
College of Charleston	73	66	7
Georgia Southern	58	53	5
Wofford	63	49	14
Furman	79	72	7
Western Kentucky	76	63	13
Florida Atlantic	64	57	7
Troy	88	67	21
Louisiana Monroe	91	63	28
Florida International	54	50	4
South Alabama	65	62	3
Arkansas State	74	57	17
North Texas	75	72	3
Arkansas Little Rock	75	67	8
Louisiana Lafayette	72	70	2
Denver	72	71	1
Middle Tennessee State	75	60	15
Austin Peay	80	71	9
Tennessee State	69	63	6
Murray State	72	68	4
Tennessee Tech	82	74	8
Morehead State	66	55	11
Eastern Kentucky	57	54	3
Southeast Missouri State	63	59	4
Jacksonville State	74	56	18
Eastern Illinois	63	45	18
SIU- Edwardsville	73	66	7
Tennessee Martin	69	65	4
UAB	59	54	5
Tulane	81	73	8
Southern Methodist	80	74	6
Tulsa	57	55	2
Houston	72	48	24
East Carolina	82	76	6
Marshall	69	68	1
UCF	65	64	1
UTEP	63	45	18
Memphis	60	58	2
Southern Miss	60	58	2
New Mexico State	80	72	8
San Jose State	79	63	16
Fresno State	79	71	8
Utah State	60	54	6
Louisiana Tech	69	55	14
Hawaii	74	70	4
Idaho	76	70	6
Nevada	72	68	4
Montana	70	64	6
Northern Arizona	78	60	18
Sacramento State	73	64	9
Northern Colorado	73	62	11
Eastern Washington	71	70	1
Montana State	69	52	17
Idaho State	73	69	4
Weber State	64	62	2
Portland State	88	81	7
Seattle	66	65	1
Longwood	100	99	1
Virginia Military	110	89	21
UMBC	84	79	5
Towson	62	58	4
UNC Wilmington	66	61	5
William and Mary	68	66	2
James Madison	68	61	7
Hampton	74	67	7
High Point	68	64	4
Radford	71	62	9
Delaware	58	54	4
George Mason	65	60	5
Albany	66	46	20
Hartford	72	60	12
Maine	63	49	14
New Hampshire	80	69	11
Boston University	56	54	2
Stony Brook	61	55	6
Binghamton	82	48	34
Vermont	57	53	4
Old Dominion	65	63	2
Northeastern	69	57	12
Georgia State	60	57	3
Utah Valley	71	68	3
Texas Pan American	77	69	8
Cal State Bakersfield	73	67	6
NJIT	72	70	2
North Dakota	72	57	15
Chicago State	75	69	6
Houston Baptist	65	56	9
Bethune-Cookman	76	74	2
South Carolina State	70	59	11
Gardner-Webb	73	68	5
Campbell	78	72	6
Iowa	77	61	16
Wisconsin	72	65	7
Purdue	67	62	5
Michigan	75	61	14
Minnesota	61	56	5
Northwestern	75	52	23
Mississippi Valley State	92	67	25
Grambling State	79	60	19
Alabama A&M	75	72	3
Alcorn State	81	71	10
Arkansas Pine-Bluff	66	58	8
Southern University	64	58	6
Texas Southern	56	54	2
Alabama State	67	59	8
Jackson State	49	46	3
Prairie View A&M	62	48	14
Stephen F. Austin	53	50	3
UTSA	59	51	8
Texas-Arlington	97	88	9
Sam Houston State	75	63	12
Texas A&M Corpus Christi	61	53	8
Texas State	74	68	6
Central Arkansas	94	63	31
Southeastern Louisiana	64	63	1
Northwestern State	66	61	5
Nicholls State	92	61	31
McNeese State	78	75	3
Lamar	57	54	3
Rice	87	81	6
University Maryland-Eastern Shore	81	49	32
Howard	78	65	13
Coppin State	70	66	4
Norfolk State	87	82	5
LIU-Brooklyn	73	62	11
Sacred Heart	103	91	12
Quinnipiac	78	75	3
Robert Morris	73	69	4
Monmouth	81	73	8
Central Connecticut State	68	60	8
Wagner	78	61	17
Delaware State	85	62	23
North Carolina Central	76	60	16
Florida A&M	78	61	17
North Carolina A&T	87	77	10
Morgan State	62	61	1
Liberty	81	69	12
Charleston Southern	75	74	1
UNC-Asheville	93	88	5
Presbyterian	66	58	8
Winthrop	48	45	3
Coastal Carolina	67	57	10
Clemson	60	59	1
Wake Forest	71	60	11
Boston College	71	56	15
Florida State	64	60	4
North Carolina State	76	62	14
Miami (FL)	77	73	4
Maryland	90	86	4
Georgia Tech	61	50	11
Savannah State	65	45	20
Jacksonville	73	70	3
Samford	70	57	13
Davidson	77	74	3
Kansas	80	74	6
Texas	69	66	3
Texas Tech	74	57	17
Oklahoma	65	47	18
Texas A&M	65	62	3
Oklahoma State	76	61	15
Missouri	79	72	7
Iowa State	76	69	7
Baylor	80	72	8
Kansas State	75	73	2
Virginia Tech	69	61	8
Virginia	47	45	2
Oregon	67	54	13
Nebraska	83	76	7
Indiana	70	69	1
Kentucky	73	72	1
Penn State	85	47	38

And lastly, a special shout out goes to:

• Davidson for your big W on the road against Kansas.  That was clutch.
• American, thanks for the win over St. Joseph's.  Needed that.
• Rutgers, great upset of Florida.  Appreciate it.
• Although I already mentioned it, Miami (Ohio) over Belmont was huge.
• Binghamton, your absolute stunner over Vermont saved my entire spreadsheet.
• And last but not least, Houston Baptist.  Your early season victory over Bethune-Cookman could not have been a more beautiful sight to my then-glazed-over eyes.