Sweet Sixteen Showdowns

Here are my Sweet Sixteen picks with mild analysis and previewcation.

Thursday

No. 5 Purdue  v. No. 1 UConn

Had the Huskies not missed multiple layups and close shots in the final five minutes of their second round game, Robbie Hummel would have been derided much greater. Even if he is playing well (which I fully expect him to), I see Purdue having little shot. 

And I don’t even want to give them that much. E’Twaun Moore will get his points and JaJuan Johnson should as well.

With Connecticut playing as well as it has in its last two tournament games, it is hard to go against them. Jerome Dyson not being available is no longer a major issue in discussion—for the immediate future, at least. 

His absence will be missed as no team is better without one of their star players, but they should win this one without much threat. It should be the same story with Thabeet and Adrien giving Hummel and Johnson all they can handle inside.

We have not seen all of Kemba Walker.

If there are unexpected problems, I see him providing what will then be a needed boost. Walker was more widely-known than Roburt Sallie before last weekend and I do not expect a performance like Sallie’s in his opening game, but Walker could surprise some people...if they need him.

That is unlikely and he will get his shot further down the road in the tournament.

No. 4 Xavier  v. No. 1 Pitt

Pitt has not looked as good as advertised so far. In fact, they have looked bad at times. They have showed grit and that they can get it done when it absolutely has to be. However, you do not want to be in that position ever or often, and especially before the sweet 16 round. 

Their opponents will get better and better (and some familiar) as the tournament goes on. For this game, DeJuan Blair will do what he wants. Levance Fields will lead them in to their offense and Sam Young will score (and rebound) as usual. 

In addition, Pitt has too much depth compared to a team that I do not think is as good as everyone else does.

The Panthers’ inconsistency in single games will do them in. Pitt won't be bounced out...yet.

No. 3 Missouri  v. No. 2 Memphis

All season I turned down Missouri’s record and standing. They have shown me they deserved their seed. However, they have yet to play a higher seed thus far.

I thought Memphis should have been a one seed. They gave Northridge a good shot, and then hushed the critics who had been proven right on day one by running a good Maryland team off the floor. 

Greivis Vasquez was not shut down by any means, but he was controlled, and his supporting cast was shut down. Memphis may very well be the nation’s best defensive team so anyone going against them has their work cut out for them.

Memphis has very experienced veterans with Shawn Taggart and Antonio Anderson.  Robert Dozier will not go out this early. And what’s not to like about Tyreke Evans?

In addition, they have got a couple of other guys who can play; and apparently Roburt Sallie is not a one-game wonder and he wants to show what he can do on the biggest stage as long as their run goes on.

No. 3 Villanova  v. No. 2 Duke

Duke is the most underrated team in the country. Gerald Henderson can get to the rack whenever he likes, while he can also shoot. Kyle Singler is very good overall and can also shoot very well.

Jon Scheyer has been nothing but great since taking over point and he, too, can shoot the lights out. Duke does not have to live by the three. Sure, the longball can help or hurt them, but this is a really good team that no one attributes anything to besides good shooting that bails out a lack of low post presence.

If Duke, particularly Kyle Singler with either Lance Thomas or Brian Zoubek, can withstand Dante Cunningham and Dwayne Anderson down low, they should advance.  Cunningham and Anderson are not overbearing big men and Duke will have an easier time with them than they will down the road should they advance.

For now, they are alright at every position.

Like Xavier, I am not high on Villanova.  They quickly got rid of a Bruins team that was overrated all season long. The Bruins would not have even advanced past the first round had it not been for Eric Maynor’s selfishness on the final play of the game.  VCU would have put up a good fight against Nova, and maybe even have won.

It would have certainly been a better game. Everyone has been raving about Scottie Reynolds over the past three years.

Make me a believer, kid.

Note: Is Taylor King allowed to sit on the Villanova bench?  He’ll surely be in attendance; wondering why he ever left Durham.

Friday

12 Arizona  v.  1 Louisville

Earl Clark and Terrence Williams are quite the big man duo but Chase Budinger and Jordan Hill are right there with them in size.  The Wildcats are a bit taller actually, which people may not know. 

Will Samardo Samuels buckle under pressure?  It has not been a question yet, but with every rookie, the fear is always there. Arizona also has a freshman in Kyle Fogg, who is looked at to do a lot of “little” things for them.

Fogg quickly became a fan favorite because of his youthful intensity and willingness to do what is asked of him. Edgar Sosa has experience as do a lot of the Cardinals, but so does Arizona, who just had not put it together and had a deep playoff run in the past couple of years. 

And finally, Nic Wise has become known nationally and he will be looking to push up, scoring alone and dishing it off to his fellow juniors.

Arizona will take all of the help it can get from their bench, which is not deep.  A couple of threes from Zane Johnson and a board here or there from Fendi Onobun would be big. 

Louisville took a while to close out Morehead State and they let Siena believe in themselves even longer. The Wildcats led for the majority in both of their games.  Something they rarely did, win or loss, during the regular season.

The Cardinals played in a bigger and better league. I am not convinced their big two with Samuels is better or equal to Arizona’s big three. I think a big key is Jamelle Horne.

A highly-touted recruit from San Diego, Horne has had his issues this year with his decision-making, hesitation, and late game blunders. However, he has stuck with it and he can add a lot to what Arizona brings. He averages five rebounds per game, and can score when he wants to.

He can also jump right out of the gym and his size can help down low if it is called upon. Arizona has hit their stride and the potential that Lute Olson saw three years ago has revealed itself. Louisville better not keep the door open very long.

No. 3 Syracuse  v.  No. 2 Oklahoma

Syracuse is rolling and everyone has taken notice. Jonny Flynn is one of the best guards in the country and guard play is said to be so crucial; and the most important thing come March.

Opposite, Willie Warren and Austin Johnson are a very formidable backcourt, as well. 

The Griffins will take care of business in the paint, led by younger brother Blake, who is the best player in the country. Blake is the most dominating player in collegiate ball and Syracuse will be overmatched.

No. 3 Kansas  v. No. 2 Mich St

Kansas, easily.  Everyone loves Kalin Lucas. I prefer the national champion Sherron Collins. Add Cole Aldrich, who will be unstoppable in this game, and there is almost no reason to continue.

Tyshawn Taylor is the future and Marcus Morris can get on the boards if need be. This young Kansas team was very impressive in winning the Big XII regular season title in a very strong year for the conference.

No. 4 Gonzaga  v. No. 1 UNC

If Ty Lawson is playing, this can get ugly real quick. If he is unable to play or good to go but underperforms, it is an entirely different story. I have not heard Psycho T’s real or nickname all tournament long. 

How has last year’s POY not been mentioned? Well, because his team is that good.  Wayne Ellington has been scoring non-stop. Lawson was phenomenal versus LSU, and Ed Davis is rebounding and giving them some points; all of which they can use.

This is the best team Gonzaga has ever had. Jeremy Pargo is not one to back down.  The Bulldogs as a whole are the same way and they are confident and looking forward to the challenge; arguably against the best team. 

The starting lineup is strong with Josh Heytvelt in his last postseason, Matt Bouldin and Austin Daye. Daye is the key as he can sometimes disappear or seemingly shy away.  If he is strong, his team will react accordingly.

North Carolina is the deepest team in the country. However, I do not see them winning the national championship. I still do not know what happened last year in the semifinal.

I am not sure it won’t happen again. I feel the Tar Heels will falter at some point, and I cannot see any reason why that would not be Friday night against Gonzaga.

Whether it is by way of them being shocked, surprised, or something strange occurring like last year, or they simply just lose, it will happen. 

I think there is a good chance the national favorite to win it all will fall to a sizable, motivated, entertaining and athletic Gonzaga squad.