UNC Basketball: Can They Go From Sweet To Elite?

March Madness, the time of year when experts hate their job. You already know that upsets are going to happen, and lately it seems like you already know UNC will be in the Sweet Sixteen. So what’s it going to take for UNC to avoid a devastating upset?

The biggest thing that it’s going to take is Ty Lawson being in the game. UNC has one of the toughest offenses to keep up with when Lawson is in. They run the ball up the court so fast you can’t set up a good defense, and by the end of the game the other team is worn out. That’s why UNC pulls away towards the end of a game.

If Lawson is not in the game, the offense runs at a much slower pace. At the slower-paced style, there is a lot of pressure put on Hansbrough. He took 16 shots with Frasor at guard and 14 free throw attempts against LSU. With Lawson in the game, Hansbrough took 11 shots and six free throws.

Hansbrough is one of the best at his position, but taking that extra pressure off of him generates a more powerful offense.

When you think about UNC and what has lead to their success, you would have to think of Hansbrough and Lawson. It’s hard to go against this, but lately Ellington has stepped up his game. In the Radford game, he scored 25 points, and against LSU he put up 23. In these two games he shot 63 percent from behind the arc.

The biggest weakness in the starting five is Thompson; he simply has not been producing as usual. You wouldn’t know it, though, because Ed Davis is coming in off the bench and scoring points. In the LSU game he had nine points, seven rebounds, and two blocks. That’s not bad for someone who is coming off the bench.

The biggest question with UNC’s starting five is Danny Green. Green shot an awful 3-25 in the ACC tournament. He got better last weekend, shooting 9-24, but can he continue to produce? If not, UNC has a problem.

The weakest position on the bench is guard. Frasor is a quality guard, but not Final Four quality. He has only made one of his last attempts and didn’t do anything in the LSU game.

When UNC goes against Gonzaga in the Sweet Sixteen, they are going to have a tough time. When you get this deep into the tournament, everyone is a contender. One thing UNC can do to help their chances of making sure they move on to the Final Four is keeping Jeremy Prago from getting hot. Prago went 3-4 against Western Kentucky and had a total of 23 points.

UNC’s biggest concern really needs to be Lawson’s toe. I know that we’ve heard more about Lawson’s toe in the past weeks than we’ve heard about Brady’s knee in the past months, but fans are still concerned. UNC needs Lawson on the court, even if he’s playing on 9.5 toes, as he is still the key to our success.

Without Lawson, UNC isn’t the same powerhouse that experts have predicted to win the championship. Either way you look at it, Gonzaga has the potential to be trouble.

UNC is the favorite to win on many experts' brackets, but it’s March Madness, baby, and it’s anybody’s game.