2009 NCAA Tournament Prediction

Welcome to the second annual "Ballsy Tournament Predictions," brought to you by the folks at Big Duke Balls. As you can tell from the name, I'm a lifelong Duke fan. If that bothers you, do yourself a favor and stop reading now.

You stuck around, good for you. Last year's edition, while well-written (if I may say so myself), was completely wrong. My Final Four predictions from last year were No. 2 Tennessee, No. 6 USC, No. 1 UCLA, and No. 4 Pittsburgh.

In reality, the only pick I can really be ashamed of was the Trojans, considering they didn't survive the first round. For the record, I had Duke losing in the Elite Eight (and I haven't picked Duke to win it all since 2006).

Instead of deciding on my four in the Final Four and then working my way there, I spent four days doing these predictions, each day doing a different round, never thinking ahead. Often, I would look back a day later and not even agree with some of the decisions I made. That's how it works though. I don't change anything, and I just keep moving forward.

Anyhow, like I always say, don't listen to my predictions—I haven't gotten anything right since 1996. Having said that, I'm going to give you my thoughts anyhow.

FIRST ROUND

EAST BRACKET

No. 1 Pittsburgh over No. 16 East Tennessee State

If the Bucs can slow it down and play good fundamental basketball, hit their free throws, and—come on, I'm just f-ing with you. East Tennessee State hasn't played in two weeks. The Panthers walk away by 35 in this one.

No. 8 Oklahoma State over No. 9 Tennessee

Tennessee has Bruce Pearl, Pat Summitt, and now Lane Kiffin...can one school really handle this many egos? I want to know, but it's not relevant for this prediction. The Volunteers are tall and experienced (Chism and T. Smith) in the paint. The Cowboys have three guards (Anderson, Harris, and Eaton) that can run with almost anyone. Come tournament time, we're all about the guards.

No. 5 Florida State over No. 12 Wisconsin

After a deep ACC tournament, the Seminoles are quickly becoming everyone's favorite sleeper. I've seen the Noles play plenty and I can't blame anyone for thinking that way. However, the Badgers still have Bo Ryan, who's one of the smartest coaches out there. If he can find a way to just slow down Tony Douglas, Wisconsin will win this game. Too bad they won't.

No. 13 Portland State over No. 4 Xavier

One team has not looked so good lately. One team has gone 5-5 in their final 10, losing to some crappy competition. One team struggles against athletic guards who shoot lots of threes, and one team has to cross the country to play. Have you figured out the one team I'm talking about? If you haven't, just stop reading this now.

No. 11 VCU over No. 6 UCLA

The Bruins have been to the Final Four three straight seasons. It's impressive, but it won't help them this year. You see, they never had to leave the state of California for those regions. This season UCLA has to fly cross country to Philly to face a very strong VCU team, led by Duke killer Eric Maynor. One bit of advice I can give UCLA: Don't flop. It didn't help Duke win two years ago.

No. 3 Villanova over No. 14 American

Last year I said if American lost, the terrorist won. They lost, and yes, the terrorist won. However, we have a shot at redemption, folks. The American Eagles (seriously, that kicks ass) are an experienced bunch who have won 13 in a row. Too bad they're basically taking on the Wildcats at home. No underdog love in Philly.

No. 7 Texas over No. 10 Minnesota

The Longhorns are playing better lately, while Minnesota is lucky to even get in. None of that matters come tournament time. The Gophers could pull off the upset thanks to their freshman towers, Iverson and Sampson, who are a combined 12 feet, nine inches tall...but come on, this is still Tubby coaching.

No. 2 Duke over No. 15 Binghamton

Come on, haters. I dare you to pick Duke to lose in the first round. In all honesty, I never heard of Binghamton. It sounds British, but it's not. The Bearcats have D.J. Rivera, a quick guard and the leading scorer of the America East Conference. Duke struggles with quick guards, so look for Binghamton to keep it close...for about seven minutes. Duke by 25.

SOUTH BRACKET

No. 1 North Carolina over No. 16 Radford

If the Tar Heels don't score over 110 against Radford, they suck. They really, really suck.

No. 9 Butler over No. 8 LSU

Last season, the SEC player of the year (I can't remember his name. He played for Vandy. You can look it up) went down in the first round. Look for it to happen again with LSU and Marcus Thornton. My gut says, by Sunday night, you're going to know who Gordon Hayward is. A hint...he plays for Butler.

No. 12 Western Kentucky over No. 5 Illinois

Last year's Cinderella 12th seed gets to face off against an improved Illinois squad. However, Illinois has a star point guard, his name is Chester Frazier, and he'll be out with a broken hand. Good luck with that.

No. 4 Gonzaga over No. 13 Akron

Did you know that Akron's head coach, Keith Dambrot, coached LeBron James for a bit in high school? You didn't? Loser. Too bad he doesn't have him now. The Zags are no longer everyone's favorite Cinderella story. They're now an elite program with NBA-type players...who has survived the first weekend of the tournament only once in the last eight years.

No. 6 Arizona State over No. 11 Temple

Both teams play great defense. Both also have a star player (James Harden for ASU, Dionte Christmas for Temple) that takes care of most of the scoring. This one should be fun. Too bad no one will be watching in the stands in Miami—just ask the Hurricanes and Heat and Marlins and even the Dolphins sometimes. I'm flipping a coin on this one, and it landed on Harden and the Sun Devils.

No. 14 S.F. Austin over No. 3 Syracuse

All talk will be about how fresh will the Orange be after playing about three dozen overtimes last week. They shouldn't be. They should be talking instead about S.F. Austin's defense against the three, 26 percent (No. 1 in the nation). They should also talk about how Syracuse hasn't made it to the second round of the NCAA tournament since 2004. Yep, I'm picking the upset.

No. 7 Clemson over No. 10 Michigan

Everything is pointing to an upset. The Tigers have dropped eight out of their last 15, got beat by a pathetic Georgia Tech team in the ACC tournament, and they're facing a 1-3-1 defense for the first time against a Michigan team that has already beaten one ACC powerhouse this season (Duke). So why am I picking Clemson to win? How the hell should I know?

No. 2 Oklahoma over No. 15 Morgan State

Is it me or is there a lot of hate directed at Oklahoma right now? I know they've struggled a bit lately and they have no bench (only going seven deep), but come on people. They still got Blake Griffin, who only averages a football score: 21 points and 14 rebounds per game. Blake will outrebound Morgan State by himself.

MIDWEST BRACKET

No. 1 Louisville over No. 16 (Play-in winner)

You have to hand it to Rick Pitino...he's a good sport. In fact, "Why did I move next to this asshole?" may be my favorite line of the year. I'm not sure who the Cardinals will be playing, but does it really matter? Besides, the play-in game is the stumpiest thing ever.

No. 9 Siena over No. 8 Ohio State

The Buckeyes nearly get a home court advantage, but we love Siena here at Big Duke Balls. Mostly because we predicted their first-round upset last year, but it also gave us an opportunity to link to many naked photos of Sienna Miller. We're not in love with putting a Cinderella slipper on the same team twice, but the Saints are a fearless bunch, and Ohio State still doesn't have a junior center named Greg Oden anymore.

No. 5 Utah over No. 12 St. Mary's Arizona

While all the talking heads can debate over and over again about who should be in this spot, St. Mary's or Arizona, we'll instead focus on the game. The Wildcats have three solid scorers (Hill, Budinger, and Wise), but Utah will win with fundamentals: strong inside D, rebounding, and superior free throw shooting. Would you expect anything less from a good Mormon school?

No. 4 Wake Forest over No. 13 Cleveland State

I would love to pick Cleveland State. I really would. They can slow things down, killing a running team like Wake, and they've already defeated the Orange in Syracuse. Plus, why isn't anyone talking about Wake Forest's 8-6 finish to the season? Not too impressive. The only thing is, those six losses came in the ACC. Cleveland State is not in the ACC.

No. 6 West Virginia over No. 11 Dayton

Why do I foresee a lot of people picking this No. 11 over No. 6 upset? They should be careful. Yes, the Flyers can play some solid D (giving up just over 60 per game), but Bob Huggins has a super stud freshman in Devin Ebanks and can also play some defense. I'd bet you a dollar that Dayton doesn't break 50.

No. 3 Kansas over No. 14 N. Dakota State

Here's the game I most want to watch. Seriously. How can you not love this matchup? Yes, I'm picking the Jayhawks to win, but trust me, it will be tough for even Kansas fans to not cheer for Dakota. In the end, I wouldn't be shocked to see an upset. Despite being in Division I for only one season, the Bison boys have a roster full of seniors/experience, who can play fearless because they got nothing to lose, right?

No. 7 Boston College over No. 10 Southern Cal

Congratulations, Trojans. You won the Pac-10 tournament. Your mothers must be real proud. Now welcome to the ACC. The Eagles are young, but they got Tyrese Rice. Besides, what can the Trojans throw at BC that they haven't gotten from facing Carolina, Duke, Wake, and others?

No. 2 Michigan State over No. 15 Robert Morris

Let's say you were playing a drinking game where the rule was, you drink every time Mr. Morris' squad shoots a two-point shot...don't do it, because you'd be completely sober by the end of the game. Seriously, the Colonials will be throwing up threes from every angle on the court (they made 40 percent during the season).

WEST BRACKET

No. 1 Connecticut over No. 16 Chattanooga

The Huskies have the most disruptive force inside the paint. Thank God for the Mocs, they hardly ever go inside. This could end up being the closest No. 1 vs. No. 16 in this year's tournament. Look for Chattanooga to keep it (sort of) close for at least a half (thanks to threes) before Connecticut's talent takes over.

No. 8 BYU over No. 9 Texas A&M

You want a stat? Try this one on for size: The Cougars shoot 49 percent from the floor...as a team...for the season...the entire season. You got that? For every two shots they take, they make one.

No. 5 Purdue over No. 12 Northern Iowa

Man, Purdue lucked out on this one. They should not be a five seed. The Panthers got a seven-footer, who weighs nearly 300 pounds, so he should be fun to watch, but Northern Iowa has nothing to stop Robbie Hummel.

No. 4 Washington over No. 13 Mississippi State

The Rebels are quite a story, winning their first conference title in 56 years. Of course, back then they still wouldn't let a black person on their campus (and they still insist on flying the rebel flag), but that has nothing to do with this. Miss State will be a popular first-round sleeper, but let's not kid ourselves—they're playing in the Huskies' backyard in Portland.

No. 11 Utah State over No. 6 Marquette

For a guy who has never been to the state of Utah (and because of Prop 8, hates the Mormon church right now), I'm sure giving their teams lots of love. However, it's not that I love Utah State; it's that I'm disliking Marquette and the location.

First, the game is in Idaho, Utah State's friendly neighbor. Second, Marquette is 1-5 since losing their star, Dominic James, and they haven't made it out of the first round the past two years even with him.

No. 3 Missouri over No. 14 Cornell

The Big Red can hit the three, but they've never seen a full-court press like the one the Tigers will throw at them. This one will be over too quickly for television.

No. 7 California over No. 10 Maryland

If Greivis Vasquez can have another triple-double, then the Terps could probably pull off the small upset, but let's be realistic. Maryland has one great guard, while the Bears have three really good guards (Patrick Christopher, Jerome Randle, and Theo Robertson).

No. 2 Memphis over No. 15 CS Northridge

Look on the bright side—when Memphis takes on the Matadors, it will be the toughest opponent they've faced in weeks. Seriously, do you realize Memphis is the only team from Conference USA in the tournament? The only one! CS Northridge could probably finish fourth in Conference USA.

SECOND ROUND

EAST BRACKET

No. 8 Oklahoma State over No. 1 Pittsburgh

Can DeJuan Blair stay out of foul trouble? It's the only question that needs to be asked. We know Pittsburgh is 3-4 when Blair gets four fouls and 0-3 when he fouls out. The Cowboys got great guards and can spread the floor, the exact type of team that actually gets Blair into foul trouble (think Villanova). The first No. 1 seed goes down.

No. 5 Florida State over No. 13 Portland State

Do not sleep on the Portland State Vikings. I warn you. They had enough talent to knock off Gonzaga back in December, so why can't they take down the Florida State Seminoles? I'll tell you why...the Douglas/Alabi combo.

No. 3 Villanova over No. 11 VCU

As much as I like the Rams to upset the Bruins, they don't have enough depth to steal one from the Wildcats, playing a second virtual home game. The win could set them up against Duke, two teams who could play the whole game with no one over 6'8" on the court.

No. 2 Duke over No. 7 Texas

The last time these two met, No. 1 Duke ripped No. 2 Texas by 30 in Jersey four years ago. I'm going to go out on a limb here and say this one is much closer. The Longhorns are decent, although inconsistent, but they'll have no answer for the three-headed monster of Henderson, Scheyer, and Singler.

SOUTH BRACKET

No. 1 North Carolina over No. 9 Butler

I'm not doctor, but I'm going to assume Ty Law's toe is now smaller than a foot and will not slow the speedy point guard down. The Bulldogs from Butler know how to slow down an opponent's offense, but then again, they gave up 71 to Loyola-Illinois. The Tar Heels score 90 and win.

No. 4 Gonzaga over No. 12 Western Kentucky

Two small schools who like to make noise in the tournament. While the Hilltoppers still like the feel of a glass slipper, Gonzaga gave up Cinderella status long ago. They're an elite team (like Memphis) in a non-BCS conference. They also have NBA talent and can score.

No. 6 Arizona State over No. 14 S.F. Austin

James Harden will get to introduce himself to a lot of East Coasters when the Sun Devils take down upset-minded S.F. Austin and enter the Sweet 16 for the first time since 1995.

No. 2 Oklahoma over No. 7 Clemson

My personal favorite second round matchup, Trevor Booker will finally get to see what kind of pro he'll be when he goes up against Blake Griffin. The difference maker could be Terrence Oglesby and his ability to nail many threes. However, the Sooners will contain him, and Griffin will show off the goods with another big night.

MIDWEST BRACKET

No. 1 Louisville over No. 9 Siena

Oh, I want to pick Siena. I really do. I just think the Cards are overrated. Let's not forget, the Cardinals are a team that got crushed by Notre Dame by 33. Siena will keep this one entertaining, thanks to senior leadership, but they'll come up just short.

No. 4 Wake Forest over No. 5 Utah

The Demons have three players that will be playing in the NBA next year, while Utah has...red uniforms.

No. 6 West Virginia over No. 14 North Dakota State

Last year, the Mountaineers took out Duke in the second round. This year it will be North Dakota State. Could the two schools be any more different?

No. 2 Michigan State over No. 7 Boston College

The Spartans' experience will overcome Tyrese Rice, but can I just say now...the Big Ten getting seven teams into the tournament is a joke.

WEST BRACKET

No. 1 Connecticut over No. 8 BYU

Can the University of Connecticut pull off the double-double, having both the men's and women's teams win a championship in the same year? Don't know, but I know BYU won't stand in their way.

No. 4 Washington over No. 5 Purdue

I'm picking two Pac-10 teams to make it to the Sweet 16? I really need to lay off the opium.

No. 3 Missouri over No. 11 Utah State

Ex-Duke players/assistant coaches Quin Snyder and Tommy Amaker coached Missouri and Michigan not too long ago, and both departed unpleasantly. Both teams now find themselves back into the NCAA tournament with new coaches. I guess this gives Stanford something to look forward to in about five years.

No. 2 Memphis over No. 7 California

Yeah, I do trash the Tigers a lot (actually I trash their conference), yet here I am putting them back into the Sweet 16.

SWEET 16

EAST BRACKET

No. 8 Oklahoma State over No. 5 Florida State

Yep, I did it. I knocked the Panthers, a favorite to win it all by many, out of the tournament. Who the hell do I think I am? I'll tell you who I am. I'm a guy who's putting the OSU Cowboys into the Elite Eight. No, I don't think they're one of the top eight teams in the land, but they can beat Pittsburgh by spreading it out. Look for them to do it yet again against the Seminoles.

No. 2 Duke over No. 3 Villanova

Nearly everyone has Duke falling to the Wildcats, but I just don't know why. Villanova's strength is the same as Duke's strength. Duke's weakness is the same as Villanova's weakness. Duke's advantage: Over the last two months, no team has done a better job at not turning it over. Duke may miss more shots in the end, but they'll take more attempts.

SOUTH BRACKET

No. 4 Gonzaga over No. 1 North Carolina

Yep, I'm picking the upset. Another No. 1 goes down. This will be one hell of a battle; two teams who really like to score a lot. The winner will easily clear 90. As a longtime football and basketball guy, I know how devastating a toe injury is. Even if Lawson feels better, he's never going to feel perfect, and that will hurt the Tar Heels. He and that toe really are that important. If Lawson was healthy, I'd pick Carolina to go to the title.

No. 2 Oklahoma over No. 6 Arizona State

Griffin vs. Harden...size always wins, baby. At least that's what my wife always says.

MIDWEST BRACKET

No. 4 Wake Forest over No. 1 Louisville

Sorry folks, the Cardinals are a scam. They may have won the Big East, but they did it without having to travel to either Pittsburgh or Connecticut. Wake Forest has three NBA-ready players on their roster, and not even Louisville's full-court press can slow down Jeff Teague.

No. 6 West Virginia over No. 2 Michigan State

The year of the Big Ten fraud comes to an end when the seventh best Big East school knocks the top team in the Big Ten out of the tournament. Call me an Ebanks groupie, but I believe he's going to have a huge tournament.

WEST BRACKET

No. 1 Connecticut over No. 4 Washington

It should be fun to watch Huskies senior Jon Brockman, standing only 6'7", muscle 7'3" Hasheem Thabeet for rebounds. For the record, Brockman averages 11.3 rebounds per game, one more than Thabeet. Too bad Washington doesn't have an answer for A.J. Price.

No. 2 Memphis over No. 3 Missouri

Yes, you probably already know that Mike Anderson was the last coach to defeat John Calipari in Conference USA, so does that mean he has some secret to success? Who cares? Wasn't that like in 1976?

ELITE EIGHT

EAST BRACKET

No. 2 Duke over No. 8 Oklahoma State

The Blue Devils get lucky again. Since the Cowboys took care of Pittsburgh, Duke meets up with another team that they match up well against. No team guards the three-point line better than the Devils, while OSU has no answer for Singler and Henderson. After four years, Duke returns to the Final Four.

SOUTH BRACKET

No. 2 Oklahoma over No. 4 Gonzaga

The Zags get another shot to break through the Final Four wall, but unfortunately for them, the country's best player (Griffin) stands in their way. For Blake, by game number four, it will be like stealing candy from a baby.

MIDWEST BRACKET

No. 6 West Virginia over No. 4 Wake Forest

If there's a coach who can make the Demons look young, it's Bobby Huggins. Despite the fact three Big East teams "earned" a No. 1 seed, it will be the Mountaineers who are the lone Big East representative in the Final Four. Oh crap, did I just give away the next bracket?

WEST BRACKET

No. 2 Memphis over No. 1 Connecticut

Here's how it works. If the Huskies had Jerome Dyson, I'd pick them. In fact, if Lawson was healthy for UNC and Dyson was playing, I would have picked a UNC/Connecticut final (with Carolina winning it all). However, Dyson is out and Connecticut is just 4-3 without him. The Tigers will be able to control Thabeet, but Price won't be able to handle Evans. It's back-to-back Final Fours for Memphis.

FINAL FOUR

No. 2 Duke Blue Devils over No. 2 Oklahoma Sooners

Here it is, student vs. pupil (technically Jeff Capel isn't a pupil of Coach K. He was never an assistant). Having said that, it is certainly a great matchup between two contrasting styles. In one corner, the motion offense, run basically by four small forwards/shooting guards, going against size, Blake Griffin. While the Sooners are by no means a one-man band, everything flows through him.

The Sooners aren't deep, only playing about seven players, but luckily for them, this isn't a run-n-gun Duke team with the safe and conservative Scheyer running the floor.

Duke will have no answers for Blake, so look for Coach K to swarm three players at Griffin every time he touches the ball. If the Sooners are going to beat Duke, they'll need to beat them with other players.

While Griffin is a solid defender, he's not a shot blocker, which can give Duke trouble. Look for the Devils to spread it out and force Griffin to have to move on double teams.

No. 2 Memphis Tigers over No. 6 West Virginia Mountaineers

There's a lot of talk recently about the Tigers and Coach Calipari's one-and-done strategy, like Tyreke Evans, but while the freshman stud may run the show for the Tigers, the heart and soul of this bunch is the four other starters, all upperclassmen (two juniors and two seniors).

The two seniors have been to two Elite Eights and a title game. If they make it to another title game, that would be 20 postseason games in a career (for the record, Duke's class of '92 played in 23 postseason games).

While I believe Huggins can bottle up Evans—in fact, Ebanks (the West Virginia freshman) will have the bigger game—Memphis' tournament experience will pay off in the end.

TITLE GAME

No. 2 Memphis Tigers over No. 2 Duke Blue Devils

I love my Blue Devils and I hate the Memphis Tigers, but let's be honest, if Duke's going to actually make it this far (which is a stretch to say the least), they're going to need a lot of luck (in my pool, they benefit from both Pittsburgh and North Carolina going down earlier).

The Devils' luck will run out, simply because Memphis is back at this again. After two Elite Eights and a heartbreaking title game defeat last season, the Tigers will make it over the hump in 2009.

CHAMPION: Memphis Tigers