Power Ranking the Top 50 Fantasy Football Studs to Close out the 2012 Season
These are the 50 best fantasy football players for the rest of the 2012 season.
The Fine Print
1) I will start with the top 10 rest-of season QBs then move on to the top 15 RBs, the top 15 WRs and the top 10 TEs.
2) With only seven weeks left for teams that will make the fantasy championship, a player having an upcoming bye week obviously hurts their value. It can only be calculated, as pertaining to your team, by subtracting the player's fantasy points/game average against his most suitable replacement for one week. I have run the numbers against best available position players that are available in 70-75 percent of Yahoo! leagues.
3) I have integrated my matchup algorithm. This takes into account individual scouting grades and snap counts from each member of the unit that will be defending, pass rushing, or covering the player. I then average the individual grades into "position grouping against" grades as a weighted average against fantasy points allowed in standard leagues.
I have taken outcomes of Week 10's variable inputs for each remaining team the player faces, and have averaged them. The rest-of-season matchup index is represented on a scale of 1-100, with 100 being the "best" and zero being the "worst."
By "best" and "worst" I mean this:
Next to the player's opponent, you will see a number between "one" and "32." This number represents the opponent's rank against the featured player's position.
If there is a "one" next to a team, that means it is the best matchup for the player in question. A "32" means it is the worst.
The average of all remaining matchups goes into the index. The lower the number out of 100, the better.
Anything above 50 is tougher than average, anything below 50 is easier than average.
QB10: Tony Romo, QB Dallas Cowboys
1 of 22QB10: Tony Romo, QB Dallas Cowboys
Average 2012 Fantasy Points Per Game: 21
Remaining Schedule:
Philadelphia Eagles- 19
Cleveland Browns- 15
Washington Redskins- 3
Philadelphia Eagles- 19
Cincinnati Bengals- 12
Pittsburgh Steelers- 31
New Orleans Saints- 1
Matchup Index: 44/100
It was tough deciding who number 10 on this list would be, and there were a few very suitable options. Quarterback is deep this year, and will be next year as well. The premium on workhorse runners will be sky-high coming into 2013 fantasy drafts.
The fact is, Romo has historically shined coming down the stretch, especially against division opponents. His 44 matchup index and the fact that his bye week has passed made the decision for me, though. The Cowboys are in must-win mode, and Romo will have a good late-season rally for his fantasy owners.
For Cowboys fans? That's a whole different story.
QB9: Robert Griffin III, Washington Redskins
2 of 22QB9: Robert Griffin III, Washington Redskins
Average 2012 Fantasy Points Per Game: 24.7
Remaining Schedule:
BYE
Philadelphia Eagles- 19
Dallas Cowboys- 30
New York Giants- 4
Baltimore Ravens- 21
Cleveland Browns- 15
Philadelphia Eagles- 19
Matchup Index: 51/100
You can't exactly love Griffin's future exploits against the Giants given what we saw in Week 9, at least not this year—and that is by far his best matchup on paper for the rest of the season. Some Griffin owners may still have their original backup rostered, but the smart ones likely don't unless they have come through the season completely unscathed by injuries and swindles.
Griffin's Week 10 bye bumps him down a little, but I am more worried about his seeming to have regressed slowly since being somewhat exposed by Pittsburgh in his first NFL test against the 3-4 front.
Griffin is still arguably the highest-uspide play in fantasy currently, though, and you will be very happy to continue rolling him out through your late season and playoffs.
QB8 Ben Roethlisberger, QB Pittsburgh Steelers
3 of 22QB8 Ben Roethlisberger, QB Pittsburgh Steelers
Average 2012 Fantasy Points Per Game: 22.3
Remaining Schedule:
Kansas City Chiefs- 9
Baltimore Ravens- 21
Cleveland Browns- 15
Baltimore Ravens- 21
San Diego Chargers- 24
Dallas Cowboys- 30
Cincinnati Bengals- 12
Matchup Index: 59/100
Big Ben has been fantastic all season, but I'm beginning to sense a bit of a transition in the offense to the run as a result of much improved interior blocking and terrible, marshmallow man patty-caking on the outside by rookie RT Mike Adams.
The pass rush is getting to Roethlisberger more often, resulting in the increased utilization of Heath Miller on hot reads when he isn't busy with babysitting Adams and his blocking assignments inside.
QB7 Andrew Luck, QB Indianapolis Colts
4 of 22QB7 Andrew Luck, QB Indianapolis Colts
Average 2012 Fantasy Points Per Game: 24.1
Remaining Schedule:
Jacksonville Jaguars- 13
New England Patriots- 7
Buffalo Bills- 8
Detroit Lions- 20
Tennessee Titans- 5
Houston Texans- 27
Kansas City Chiefs- 9
Matchup Index: 40/100
Regardless of what anyone else might believe, I believe the Indianapolis Colts will find themselves in playoff contention this season, and that is thanks nearly in full to Andrew Luck, who will navigate this ending to his spectacular rookie season through fairly calm waters with a matchup index of 40.
The only thing that gives you major pause is his going against Houston again in the semifinals. I will be starting Luck over Robert Griffin III for a majority of the remainder of my regular season in a league in which I own both players. `
QB6 Carson Palmer, QB Oakland Raiders
5 of 22QB6 Carson Palmer, QB Oakland Raiders
Average 2012 Fantasy Points Per Game: 22.3
Remaining Schedule:
Baltimore Ravens- 21
New Orleans Saints- 1
Cincinnati Bengals- 12
Cleveland Browns- 15
Denver Broncos- 17
Kansas City Chiefs- 9
Carolina Panthers- 25
Matchup Index: 38/100
How is Carson Palmer owned in less than 50 percent of Yahoo! Leagues? The loss of McFadden hurts the offense, but the offense was hurting anyway, especially in the running game.
The Raiders will go to the air much more often to finish 2012, and RB Marcel Reece who will fill the void for injured McFadden and Mike Goodson is a dynamic pass catcher that has been racking up fantasy garbage-time dump off gold for years now.
I do not think the loss of McFadden hurts Palmer. Palmer is averaging nearly 22 points a game and he has the easiest schedule of any QB through this critical stretch.
QB5 Aaron Rodgers, QB Green Bay Packers
6 of 22QB5 Aaron Rodgers, QB Green Bay Packers
Average 2012 Fantasy Points Per Game: 26.2
Remaining Schedule:
BYE
Detroit Lions- 20
New York Giants- 4
Minnesota Vikings- 10
Detroit Lions- 20
Chicago Bears- 28
Tennessee Titans- 5
Matchup Index: 45/100
Rodgers is the best QB in fantasy, and will be for many years to come. As we look at the rest of the season, though, there are others who will serve you better. In Week 10, you will have to use a fill-in QB, and hopefully that player is not a total scrub.
Even if not, the difference in what that player is capable of doing and what Rodgers is capable of doing on any given Sunday (or Monday Night. Yes Houston, I'm talking about you.) is likely to bring a net loss of double-digit points for the season in standard leagues.
As I always say, football is a game of inches and fantasy football is a game of decimal points.
QB4 Tom Brady, QB New England Patriots
7 of 22QB4 Tom Brady, QB New England Patriots
Average 2012 Fantasy Points Per Game: 24.7
Remaining Schedule:
Buffalo Bills- 8
Indianapolis Colts- 18
New York Jets- 26
Miami Dolphins- 14
Houston Texans- 27
San Francisco 49ers- 32
Jacksonville Jaguars- 13
Matchup Index: 62/100
Remember, this is a Colts team who has been very suspect in the secondary, and just got worse losing two corners coming into Week 10. The 18 of 32 matchup there is not as bad as it would appear. Brady's initial start to the playoffs is brutal, however facing Houston and San Francisco.
The index of 62 indicates that on average, Brady will be facing defenses to round out the 2012 fantasy season that are among the hardest third of teams for fantasy QBs to face.
If his owners make it through the first two weeks of the playoffs, fly out to Jacksonville for Week 16 and watch your fantasy championship occur live. I hear they have extra tickets sometimes.
QB3 Peyton Manning, QB Denver Broncos
8 of 22QB3 Peyton Manning, QB Denver Broncos
Average 2012 Fantasy Points Per Game: 25.2
Remaining Schedule:
Carolina Panthers- 25
San Diego Chargers- 24
Kansas City Chiefs- 9
Tampa Bay Buccaneers- 2
Oakland Raiders- 11
Baltimore Ravens- 21
Cleveland Browns- 15
Matchup Index: 48/100
Manning has an easier-than-average schedule moving forward through the fantasy season, and even if he didn't, it almost would matter. The man can't even throw the ball where he wants to anymore, and he still runs the offense like a machine. His talented surrounding cast have taken to the system like ducks to water, a synergy I anticipate to continue in Denver's late-season playoff push.
QB2 Drew Brees, QB New Orleans Saints
9 of 22QB2 Drew Brees, QB New Orleans Saints
Average 2012 Fantasy Points Per Game: 27.7
Remaining Schedule:
Atlanta Falcons- 22
Oakland Raiders- 11
San Francisco 49ers- 32
Atlanta Falcons- 22
New York Giants- 4
Tampa Bay Buccaneers- 2
Dallas Cowboys- 30
Matchup Index: 54/100
Brees has a tougher than average schedule to finish the season, but you have to love his first two games in the playoffs against the fourth and second-best matchups for QBs on the season.
The Saints defense showed signs of life against the Eagles on Monday Night with the return of interim head coach Joe Vitt, but let's face it. The Eagles are horrible and so is the Saints defense.
Brees will be having to air it out to keep up with the carnage that opposing offenses like the Falcons, Giants and Cowboys will unleash on Spagnuolo's horrid on-field product.
QB1: Matt Ryan, QB Atlanta Falcons
10 of 22QB1: Matt Ryan, QB Atlanta Falcons
Average 2012 Fantasy Points Per Game: 25.2
Remaining Schedule:
New Orleans Saints- 1
Arizona Cardinals- 23
Tampa Bay Buccaneers- 2
New Orleans Saints- 1
Carolina Panthers- 25
New York Giants- 4
Detroit Lions- 20
Matchup Index: 34/100
Wow. Like the Matt Ryan owners of the world didn't have it good enough. To cap his fantasy season, Ryan faces a set of seven teams that on average equal out to a top 10 easiest opponent when put together.
In redraft leagues, I would trade any QB in fantasy for Ryan straight up. I do not believe Ryan is close to the best QB in football, or even the best QB in fantasy.
He will be the best QB in fantasy for the duration of NFL Weeks 10 through 16 of the 2012 regular season, however, and that's all that really matters to most of us right now.
Running Backs: Top 15
11 of 2215. Alfred Morris, RB Washington Redskins: 12.5 FP/G
BYE PHI @DAL NYG BAL @CLE @PHI
14. Reggie Bush, RB Miami Dolphins: 11.8 FP/G
TEN @BUF SEA NE @SF JAC BUF
13. Jamaal Charles, RB Kansas City Chiefs: 12.2 FP/G
@PIT CIN DEN CAR @CLE @OAK IND
12. Trent Richardson, RB Cleveland Browns: 13.1 FP/G
BYE @DAL PIT @OAK KC WAS @DEN
11. Marshawn Lynch, RB Seattle Seahawks: 13.7 FP/G
NYJ BYE @MIA @CHI ARI @BUF SF
10. Frank Gore, RB San Francisco 49ers: 12.7 FP/G
STL CHI @NO @STL MIA @NE @SEA
9. Matt Forte, RB Chicago Bears: 12.8 FP/G
HOU @SF MIN SEA @MIN GB @ARI
8. Willis McGahee, RB Denver Broncos: 12.9 FP/G
@CAR SD @KC TB @OAK @BAL CLE
7. C.J. Spiller, RB Buffalo Bills: 13.7 FP/G
@NE MIA @IND JAC STL SEA @MIA
6. Stevan Ridley, RB New England Patriots: 13.3 FP/G
BUF IND @NYJ @MIA HOU SF @JAC
RB5: Adrian Peterson, RB Minnesota Vikings
12 of 22RB5: Adrian Peterson, RB Minnesota Vikings
Average 2012 Fantasy Points Per Game: 16.3
Remaining Schedule:
Detroit Lions- 20
BYE
Chicago Bears- 28
Green Bay Packers- 16
Chicago Bears- 28
St. Louis Rams- 13
Houston Texans- 31
Matchup Index: 70/100
One of the worst schedules we have seen to end the season. AP is super-human and matchup-proof, however, as we saw in Seattle last week, and against the 49ers just this year.
RB4: LeSean Mccoy, RB Philadelphia Eagles
13 of 22RB4: LeSean Mccoy, RB Philadelphia Eagles
Average 2012 Fantasy Points Per Game: 13.4
Remaining Schedule:
Dallas Cowboys- 23
Washington Redskins- 17
Carolina Panthers- 7
Dallas Cowboys- 23
Tampa Bay Buccaneers- 20
Cincinnati Bengals- 15
Washington Redskins- 17
Matchup Index: 54/100
The matchup index is a little tougher than average here, but this is a team that has to start utilizing the run. In division games, especially games in which people are coaching for their career, you can throw the matchup out the window.
Shady is a once-in-a-lifetime talent who should continue to get going in productive ways for your team with no bye week issues to interfere. An eventual replacement of Mike Vick via Nick Foles may help McCoy more than hurt him.
The staff will be forced to take a more conservative approach in this transition and that leads to more RB touches, and with Foles, dump off-city. Watch his college tape.
RB3: Ray Rice, RB Baltimore Ravens
14 of 22RB3: Ray Rice, RB Baltimore Ravens
Average 2012 Fantasy Points Per Game: 15.4
Remaining Schedule:
Oakland Raiders- 11
Pittsburgh Steelers- 27
San Diego Chargers- 19
Pittsburgh Steelers- 27
Washington Redskins- 17
Denver Broncos- 25
New York Giants- 22
Matchup Index: 67/100
Ray Rice's schedule to end the season is very, very, ugly according to my system. One of the worst schedules of any player at any position, much like Adrian Peterson. Bernard Pierce took a somewhat concerning number of snaps last week, but Ray Rice is not only a threat to go the distance on any play, he is a thick, small rocket through the hole who produces consistently, and the prototype for a new breed of NFL back. Which brings us to our number two fantasy RB...
RB2: Doug Martin, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
15 of 22RB2: Doug Martin, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Average 2012 Fantasy Points Per Game: 19
Remaining Schedule:
San Diego Chargers- 19
Carolina Panthers- 7
Atlanta Falcons- 16
Denver Broncos- 25
Philadelphia Eagles- 11
New Orleans Saints- 2
St. Louis Rams- 13
Matchup Index: 42/100
I've been saying it for a while. I love Doug Martin. I have had the opportunity to sit down and interview the young man, and attend all of his practices at the 2012 Senior Bowl.
We all know the schtick: Ray Rice, Rutgers, Greg Schiano. Schiano coached Ray Rice in college, now he's the coach in Tampa, and he wanted to draft a running back like Ray Rice to carry the load. It seemed so simple-minded and easy.
It's exactly what happened. Doug Martin is unbelievable.
RB1 Arian Foster, RB Houston Texans
16 of 22RB1 Arian Foster, RB Houston Texans
The opponents that he faces do not matter, his points don't matter. Foster is the best player in fantasy football and he has already had his bye.
Wide Receivers: Top 15
17 of 2215. Mike Wallace, WR Pittsburgh Steelers: 10.4 FP/G
KC BAL @CLE @BAL SD @DAL CIN
14. Denarius Moore, WR Oakland Raiders: 10.4 FP/G
@BAL NO @CIN CLE DEN KC @CAR
13. Miles Austin, WR Dallas Cowboys: 11 FP/G
@PHI CLE WAS PHI @CIN PIT NO
12. Wes Welker, WR New England Patriots: 10.7 FP/G
BUF IND @NYJ @MIA HOU SF @JAC
11. Marques Colston, WR New Orleans Saints: 12.3 FP/G
ATL @OAK SF @ATL @NYG TB @DAL
10. Julio Jones, WR Atlanta Falcons: 11.8 FP/G
@NO ARI @TB NO @CAR NYG @DET
9. Victor Cruz, WR New York Giants: 12.6 FP/G
@CIN BYE GB @WAS NO @ATL @BAL
8. Vincent Jackson, WR Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 13.4 FP/G
SD @CAR ATL @DEN PHI @NO STL
7. Calvin Johnson, WR Detroit Lions: 10.3 FP/G
@MIN GB HOU IND @GB @ARI ATL
6. Roddy White, WR Atlanta Falcons: 11.9 FP/G
@NO ARI @TB NO @CAR NYG @DET
WR4 and WR5: Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas, Denver Broncos
18 of 22WR4 and WR5: Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas, Denver Broncos
Average 2012 Fantasy Points Per Game: 12.6 (Thomas) and 12.5 (Decker)
Remaining Schedule:
Jacksonville Jaguars- 10
New England Patriots- 17
Buffalo Bills- 11
Detroit Lions- 19
Tennessee Titans- 6
Houston Texans- 30
Kansas City Chiefs- 9
Matchup Index: 45/100
The future 2012 AFC West Champions will come into the playoffs hot thanks to these two, and both players represent excellent draft picks by their fantasy owners.
WR3: Brandon Marshall, WR Chicago Bears
19 of 22WR3: Brandon Marshall, WR Chicago Bears
Average 2012 Fantasy Points Per Game: 15.2
Remaining Schedule:
Houston Texans- 30
San Francisco 49ers- 32
Minnesota Vikings- 18
Seattle Seahawks- 28
Minnesota Vikings- 18
Green Bay Packers- 15
Arizona Cardinals- 14
Matchup Index: 69/100
Marshall's playoff rest-of-season schedule is absolutely horrible on paper, but he is an essential cog in Chicago's play book. The good news for owners is that Marshall's playoff schedule eases up after a tough run leading into the dance.
WR2: Reggie Wayne, WR Indianapolis Colts
20 of 22WR2: Reggie Wayne, WR Indianapolis Colts
Average 2012 Fantasy Points Per Game: 12.7
Remaining Schedule:
Jacksonville Jaguars- 10
New England Patriots- 17
Buffalo Bills- 11
Detroit Lions- 19
Tennessee Titans- 6
Houston Texans- 30
Kansas City Chiefs- 9
Matchup Index: 46/100
Wayne has had a 2012 resurgence in the Andrew Luck-led Bruce Arians offense that nobody could have realistically predicted. Wayne is a target monster and one of the biggest steals of 2012 fantasy drafts. Moving forward, Wayne has the easiest schedule for fantasy football WRs imaginable outside of Houston in the fantasy semifinals.
WR1: A.J. Green, WR Cincinnati Bengals
21 of 22WR1: A.J. Green, WR Cincinnati Bengals
Average 2012 Fantasy Points Per Game: 15.4
Remaining Schedule:
New York Giants- 2
Kansas City Chiefs- 9
Oakland Raiders- 12
San Diego Chargers- 21
Dallas Cowboys- 23
Philadelphia Eagles-16
Pittsburgh Steelers: 29
Matchup Index: 50/100
Green's schedule seems to get harder and harder throughout the playoff season, and that is something to keep in mind, but the more important thing to keep in mind is that you can never sit the guy.
Tight Ends: Top 10
22 of 22The fact of the matter is this: If you are invested in a TE that was originally priced in the Antonio Gates-area or above, then you will be starting that TE. I draw the line at Gates because I start Gates very reluctantly, and the next TE typically taken in 2012 drafts was Jermichael Finley who I would not start in any format currently.
This is how things will shake out for weeks 10-16 in the TE department.
1. Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots
2. Jimmy Graham New Orleans Saints
3. Tony Gonzalez, Atlanta Falcons
4. Owen Daniels, Houston Texans
5. Heath Miller, Pittsburgh Steelers
6. Brandon Myers, Oakland Raiders
7. Vernon Davis, San Francisco 49ers
8. Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys
9. Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers
10. Jermaine Gresham, Cincinnati Bengals
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