Danceology 101: Why the Atlantic 10 Will Get Three or Four in the NCAA Tourney

Are you ready for this? The Atlantic 10, the NCAA basketball conference that isn't really a major and isn't really a mid-major, is likely to send three or four teams to the NCAA Tournament.

What's that, you don't believe it?  You better believe it, and if your team is on the bubble...I'd be worried!

Here's how it shapes up:  Xavier and Dayton are believed to be locks.  They were the only Atlantic 10 teams expected to get a tournament invite, but no one told Temple and Duquense.                                    

Temple upset Xavier in the semifinals of the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament, which is being held in Atlantic City this weekend, and Duquense upset Dayton.

With the win over Xavier, Temple might have improved their body of work just enough to make it in to the field of 65, and although Duquense's win over Dayton will not put them into the NCAA Tournament, a win over Temple in the conference final will give them an automatic bid.

The No.19 Xavier Musketeers have an RPI of 16.  Their record is 25-7 (12-4), and they have some good wins.  They beat Missouri, Virginia Tech, Memphis, and Auburn. They also have road wins over LSU and Virginia. The Musketeers are going to the tournament!

Dayton has an RPI of 22 and a record of 26-7 (11-5). They have wins over Auburn, Marquette, George Mason, and Xavier.  The Dayton Flyers are likely to make the draw when the selections are announced on Sunday.

All of a sudden Temple is in the mix! Their record of 21-11 (11-5) is not outstanding, but their  RPI was 39 before the win over Xavier yesterday.  Along with the win over Xavier, Temple beat Tennessee and won on the road against Penn State.

There's one other thing that makes Temple so appealing to the selection committee...they've won nine out of their last eleven games!

Temple has two ways to reach the dance. They can get an automatic bid by winning their tournament outright or, if they lose the final to Duquense, they can still get selected for an at-large bid.

Once again, Duquense  has to win the Atlantic 10 Tournament to get selected. If they can do that, they will get an automatic bid.  They have no other way get to the Dance, even though their record is impressive at 21-11(9-7)

So, when the dust settles on the Boardwalk in Atlantic City later tonight, Joe Lunardi and all the gurus will have to adjust their predictions accordingly.

This bubble keeps shrinking, and if the Duquense wins this conference tournament, the Atlantic 10 could put four of its teams in the Dance and take all the air out of this bubble.