Week 3 NFL Picks: Underdogs Guaranteed to Cover Spread

After the New York Giants and Carolina Panthers gave us an early-week taste of NFL football on Thursday night, the excitement for Week 3 action has become palpable. 

And for those of you who are in pick 'em contests or like to wager a few shekels on Sunday afternoons, the time is running out to make picks.

With fellow contest members and bettors scouring scouting reports and checking the injury list, it's easy to find the potential blowouts on the schedule. However, the smartest prognosticators always look for diamonds in the rough.

Whether the oddsmakers made these lines to entice bets or if they just misread the situation, there are always a couple of underdogs that jump out as easy, obvious selections.

For that reason, here's a look at a few underdogs that are guaranteed to beat their Week 3 spread.

(Note: All spreads are via Bovada.)

Kansas City Chiefs (+9) at New Orleans Saints

It's an admittedly small sample size, but we have seen thus far how much head coach Sean Payton meant to the Saints.

The team's defensive struggles this season are well-documented. According to Football Outsiders' advanced metrics, New Orleans' secondary has given up 87.6 percent more yardage than a replacement-level defense would give up in a similar scenario. 

Regardless, it is not just defensive problems that are plaguing the Saints. A year after seemingly setting every passing record imaginable, Drew Brees has struggled mightily in 2012. Once the king of completion percentage, Brees has completed just 54.5 percent of his passes—a number that would be worse without the quarterback's prowess in garbage time.

Obviously, the Chiefs have not looked better through two games having been eviscerated by the Buffalo Bills and Atlanta Falcons.

That still does not justify the Saints being the biggest favorite of any team in Week 3. New Orleans should win, but until both sides of the ball play up to potential, don't expect a blowout anytime soon.

Score Prediction: Saints 31, Chiefs 27

Houston Texans at Denver Broncos (+3)

With two dominating performances in the books, it's looking like the Texans might be on the verge of living up to the preseason Super Bowl hype.

The defense has seemingly shrugged at losing Mario Williams in the offseason, and the offensive line is slowly rounding into shape as a cohesive unit. You will just have to forgive me if I refuse to anoint a team that beat the Miami Dolphins and Jacksonville Jaguars.

Houston will get its first big test of the season in Denver and will face off against the franchise's biggest all-time nemesis in Peyton Manning. The future Hall of Famer has a 16-2 career record against his former AFC South foe, which is the third-best by any quarterback with 15 or more starts against a franchise since the AFC/NFC merger (via ESPN Stats & Information). 

That familiarity should come as a huge help for Manning, who floundered early last week against Atlanta before leading a valiant comeback attempt. 

Look for the Broncos offense to exploit holes in Houston's defense and come away with a much-needed victory on Sunday.

Score Prediction: Broncos 23, Texans 20

New England Patriots (+3) at Baltimore Ravens

Both teams come into the Sunday Night Football clash at 1-1 and needing a victory to keep pace atop their respective divisions.

And with Aaron Hernandez's injury altering the fundamental structure of the Patriots' offense, it stands to reason that the oddsmakers went with the standard three-point home favorite here.

Nonetheless, if early-season performance is any indication of what we will see Sunday, New England should win with relative comfort.

Baltimore's defense, once among a yearly fixture atop any rankings, has fallen to a second-tier unit. Granted, it still has enough talent and experience to be a playoff-worthy defense. It just isn't the fearsome force that it once was—especially after losing Terrell Suggs to injury in the offseason. 

When given time in the pocket, Michael Vick eviscerated the Ravens' secondary, throwing for 371 yards on just 32 pass attempts. Had the Eagles' offense not turned the ball over four times last week, Baltimore could have been blown out.

Tom Brady is not Vick, and the Patriots' offense is not nearly as turnover-prone. Look for Brady to rekindle his relationship with Wes Welker and for the Patriots to get back in the win column Sunday night.

Score Prediction: Patriots 31, Ravens 20

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