Every AL Contender's Biggest 'Wild Card' Down the Home Stretch

In the last two weeks of the regular season, every contender in Major League Baseball will be hoping for things to go its way. The league's contenders will take as many lucky bounces and heroes as they can get.

Oh, and hold the goats, please.

We know from recent history and baseball history in general that the baseball gods tend to make it up as they go along in September. Sometimes they bless certain teams. Sometimes they curse teams. All teams can do is hope for blessings.

In the American League, the eight contenders still fighting for postseason berths are hoping that the baseball gods can find it in their hearts to at least bless certain parts of their teams. All eight teams have at least one "wild card" that could greatly alter their postseason hopes one way or the other.

Here's a look at each AL contender's biggest wild card for the stretch run.

Note: All stats come from Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

Baltimore Orioles: Can Nate McLouth Stay Hot?

The Orioles have a Midas touch thing going on this season. Everything they touch turns to gold.

This includes Nate McLouth, formerly one of baseball's most enigmatic lost causes.

McLouth, an All-Star and a Gold Glover in 2008 with Pittsburgh, has found new life in Baltimore. In 40 games with the O's, he's hitting .276 with a solid .786 OPS. He's been particularly good recently, hitting .291 with an .853 OPS over his last 27 games.

Recently, McLouth has made the transition from pleasant surprise to vitally important player.

McLouth has taken up a permanent residence in the leadoff spot of Baltimore's daily batting order in place of Nick Markakis, who is done for the rest of the season with a broken thumb. In eight games hitting out of the leadoff spot, McLouth is batting .297 with an .894 OPS. He's homered in two of Baltimore's last three games.

Keep in mind that he's replacing a guy who was hitting .335 with an .879 OPS out of the leadoff spot. McLouth had big shoes to fill, and he's been more than up to the challenge.

But how long can this possibly continue? After all, McLouth's current performance is nowhere near being in line with what we saw from him in Pittsburgh earlier this season, where he hit .140 with a .385 OPS in 34 games.

Will that version of McLouth resurface?

If he does, it's hard to imagine the O's winning the AL East. And since the wild-card race still has a few contenders left in it, it's not inconceivable that the O's could miss out on the playoffs altogether if McLouth spearheads a collective offensive nosedive. 

That would be the ultimate sign that Baltimore's 2012 season was too good to be true all along.

Chicago White Sox: Can Dewayne Wise and Gordon Beckham Stay Hot?

The two best hitters on the White Sox right now are not Adam Dunn and Paul Konerko. For that matter, Kevin Youkilis is hitting just .205 in September, and A.J. Pierzynski has a mere .577 OPS this month. Alejandro De Aza is hitting .190 this month.

The two hottest hitters on the White Sox are...Dewayne Wise and Gordon Beckham?

Surprisingly, yes. Wise, who was cut loose by the Yankees not too long ago, is hitting .347 with a .976 OPS in September. Beckham, who hit just .235 with a .678 OPS in August, is hitting .325 with a 1.051 OPS this month. Combined, they have 18 RBI in September.

Without the two of them, the White Sox probably aren't fifth in the AL in runs scored in September. And because half their wins this month have been by two runs or fewer, I don't think it's much of a stretch to say that Wise and Beckham are largely responsible for keeping the Sox afloat.

Here's the thing, though: These two players' track records say that they're overachieving. Wise is having a very good season, but he came into 2012 as a .219/.256/.373 hitter in his career. Beckham was hitting .231/.285/.360 through the end of August.

The White Sox have some breathing room thanks to their huge—Huge! I say—victory over the Tigers on Monday, but that breathing room might just go away if Wise and Beckham become, you know, themselves.

Detroit Tigers: Who Takes Max Scherzer's Place?

Max Scherzer entered his start against the Oakland A's on Tuesday smack in the middle of an incredible hot streak. Over his last seven starts, he was 6-0 with a 1.29 ERA and 60 strikeouts in 49 innings pitched.

And then this happened:

"

Max Scherzer left tonight's game with right shoulder fatigue. He will undergo an MRI. #Tigers

— Detroit Tigers (@tigers) September 18, 2012"

With a three-game deficit in the AL Central to make up in the last two weeks of the regular season, this is the last thing the Tigers needed.

Even if Scherzer isn't seriously injured, it stands to reason that he may have to miss a start or two. Somebody is probably going to have to step up and take his place.

But who? The Tigers have good starting pitching, but starting pitching depth is something they don't have a lot of. They're not the A's.

My best guess is that they'll turn to Drew Smyly, who is currently being used (rather sparingly) out of the bullpen. The bright side is that he hasn't fared that poorly as a starter, posting a 4.22 ERA in 16 starts.

If you take his first six starts this season out of the equation, however, Smyly has a 5.96 ERA as a starter with a .278 opponents' batting average and a .517 opponents' slugging percentage.

If he's the best the Tigers can muster in the place of Scherzer...not good...

That sound you hear is the good people of Detroit hoping and praying for Scherzer's MRI to come out all clean.

UPDATE: Tuesday, September 18 at 10:20 p.m. ET

Good news, Tigers fans:

"

UPDATE: @tigers RHP Max Scherzer's MRI showed no structural damage. He will not throw for a few days and will be re-evaluated.

— MLB (@MLB) September 19, 2012"

So at the very least, it's not serious. However, this doesn't mean Scherzer will make his next start as planned. Stay tuned.

Los Angeles Angels: Will Albert Pujols Come Around?

The Angels' pitching has been excellent in the month of September, posting an AL-best ERA of 2.23. 

There's nothing to worry about where the arms are concerned. What the Angels should really be worried about is their offense.

They shouldn't worry too much about Mike Trout, mind you. He hasn't been great this month, but he's still an excellent player who can impact a given game in a lot of ways. 

They shouldn't even be worried about Mark Trumbo. He's been in a bad slump, but that's kinda par for the course by now. He was slumping all through August, and the Angels offense performed just fine anyway.

The guy the Angels should be worried about right now is Albert Pujols. Quietly, his bat has gone missing.

So far this month, Pujols is hitting a mere .226/.273/.403 with one home run and five RBI. The one home run he hit was a meaningless solo shot in the ninth inning of a game against the A's that the Angels lost 4-1.

Keep in mind that Pujols entered September on fire. He posted a .977 OPS in June, a 1.071 OPS in July and a 1.027 OPS in August. He effectively put his early-season struggles in the distant past.

Now, it's like the bad old days all over again.

Pujols' slump hasn't killed the Angels this month, as they're 10-5 in 15 games even despite his poor showing. If their pitching comes back down to earth in the final two weeks of the season, however, they're going to need Pujols' bat to catch fire again.

New York Yankees: Will Andy Pettitte Return to Form?

Starting pitching has been a problem for the Yankees in September. Their starters have a 5.15 ERA this month, and that's thanks largely to the fact that CC Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda and David Phelps all have ERAs over 5.00 this month in three starts apiece.

Here comes Andy Pettitte to save the day.

Maybe, anyway.

Pettitte, who was supposed to start on Tuesday before the rains came, hasn't started a game since late June. He's been on the shelf these last three months due to a fractured ankle that was slow to heal (he's a little long in the tooth, after all).

Pettitte was good when he was pitching earlier this season, posting a 3.22 ERA with a .226 opponents' batting average in nine starts. And since he took the entire 2011 season off before returning to post these numbers, we know that he can pitch well after a long layoff.

I repeat: He can. That doesn't mean he will.

If Pettitte gets knocked around upon returning to the Yankees rotation, things won't be looking so great in The Bronx. The Yankees have a slim half-game lead over the Orioles in the AL East, and their play over the last couple months has been largely mediocre to begin with.

If Pettitte doesn't rescue the Yanks, they may have to settle for a wild card berth.

Or worse, nothing at all.

Oakland A's: Will They Get Better Production out of Their 3-4 Combo?

Bob Melvin is sticking to his guns these days. Every lineup, he's posted this month has featured Josh Reddick in the No. 3 hole and Yoenis Cespedes in the cleanup spot.

Their names have been constant in those spots. What hasn't been constant is the production.

Reddick is in a bad slump this month, hitting just .167/.203/.250 with one home run. Cespedes hasn't been much better, as he's hitting just .214/.286/.411.

The bright side for the A's where Cespedes is concerned is that his hits have been productive. He already has three homers and eight RBI this month after hitting just two homers with nine RBI in all of August. To boot, he's tacked on four stolen bases this month.

There's less of a bright side where Reddick is concerned. He hit a big home run on Sunday against the Orioles, but outside of that, his bat has been largely useless.

It's doubtful that Melvin will remove Cespedes from the cleanup spot, but we could see him move Reddick back down to the No. 6 hole in his lineup, where Reddick has a 1.278 OPS in limited action. 

If he does, the question then becomes who is best-suited to fill Reddick's shoes in the No. 3 spot in the lineup. To that end, there are no obvious answers.

Melvin doesn't need to make a move if the A's keep winning games, but they have a brutal 10-game road trip ahead of them, and it's already looking like they're going to start it off by going 0-1.

If the losses come and the middle of the order is still floundering, Melvin shouldn't hesitate to make a move.

Tampa Bay Rays: Can They Beat Up Boston and Toronto?

The Rays have fallen on hard times. They entered their matchup against the hapless Red Sox on Tuesday night as losers of eight of their past 11 games.

To make matters worse, the hapless Red Sox have been rather full of hap against the Rays this season. They're the only AL East team the Red Sox have a winning record against this year.

This is hardly ideal because, including Tuesday's game, the Rays have five games remaining against the Red Sox. These are games they should be winning, but the Rays' track record against Boston this season suggests they have their work cut out for them.

Similarly, the Rays should be able to beat up on the Blue Jays when Toronto comes calling at the Trop for a three-game series this weekend. The Jays, however, split a four-game series with the Rays the last time they hooked up.

It's absolutely imperative that the Rays take advantage of these games, because things aren't going to get any easier for them in the final week of the regular season. The Rays will finish the season with a four-game series at Chicago before heading home to wrap things up with a three-game series against Baltimore.

If the Rays are still five games out (or worse) in the wild card race when these games come around, they may as well mail it in. They're not going to carve their way through the White Sox and O's.

Texas Rangers: Is Mike Napoli Back?

Only the Orioles have hit more home runs in September than the Rangers have. Given the amount of firepower the Rangers are packing, they shouldn't have any trouble keeping pace.

It helps that the Rangers have a little extra firepower these days, of course. After a month on the disabled list with a bad wheel, Mike Napoli returned to Texas' lineup on Saturday. The fact that he promptly launched a three-run homer is a good sign.

It's been a lost season for Napoli to this point. He hit .320 with a staggering 1.045 OPS last season, but he's hitting a mere .225 with a .782 OPS this season. He's no All-Star (even if he was, in fact, an All-Star).

But since he came back strong in his debut, the Rangers can allow themselves to hope. Maybe a long rest was just what the doctor ordered for Napoli.

If it was, then watch out. If Napoli can get back to hitting like he was last year, the depth of Texas' lineup will be truly unparalleled. 

If Napoli doesn't go back to hitting like he was last year, then the A's may yet catch the Rangers in the AL West. They're very strong, but they're still somewhere south of invincible. 

For a look at National League teams' wild cards, B/R FC Doug Mead has you covered.

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter.