Predicting Every AL Contender's Record in the Season's Final Weeks

In a little over two weeks, the 2012 Major League Baseball regular season will come to an end.

In other words, there's not a whole lot of time left for the mess in the American League to be resolved. Each team has played over 140 games apiece, but things are just as uncertain now as they were way back on Opening Day.

Things in the AL are as tight as can be. No division leader has a lead larger than three games, and there are three teams within five games of the second wild-card spot. Each and every loss the rest of the way carries the potential to be catastrophic.

As for how things are going to pan out for the AL's eight primary contenders, I have a few educated guesses that I don't mind sharing.

Note: All stats come from Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted. Breakdowns of remaining schedule can be found on ESPN.com.

New York Yankees

Current Record: 83-63 (1st in AL East)

The Yankees are going to need to finish strong if they want to capture their third AL East title in the last four years. The good news for them is that their remaining schedule sets them up pretty well for a strong finish.

Combined, the Yankees' remaining opponents boast a winning percentage of .469. The only team they're going to face the rest of the way that's over .500 is the Oakland A's, who will come calling at Yankee Stadium this upcoming weekend.

These would be the same A's that swept the Yankees in a four-game series the last time they hooked up. These are also the same A's that rank second in baseball in home runs since the All-Star break and that have a 3.22 ERA in the month of September.

Make no mistake, the Yankees will be playing a superior team when they host the A's. If they drop that series, they'll have to make good use of the four other series remaining on their schedule: Two against Toronto, one against Minnesota and one against Boston.

Conventional wisdom suggests that the mighty Yankees should handle the Jays, Twins and Sox just fine, but that depends on the Yankees correcting their various woes. They're only hitting .235 as a team in September. CC Sabathia and Hiroki Kuroda both have ERAs over 5.00 this month, and the team as a whole has an ERA of 4.56.

Plus, the Yankees are still waiting on the return of Mark Teixeira, and they have no guarantees that Andy Pettitte's return will pan out.

The competition is weak enough to keep me from predicting the Yankees' doom, but theirs will be short of a glorious finish.

Record in Final Weeks: 9-7

Season Record: 92-70

Baltimore Orioles

Current Record: 82-64 (2nd in AL East)

The Orioles have the best record of any AL East team so far this month at 9-6. With the Yankees struggling to gather any sort of momentum, the O's have a golden chance to win their first AL East title in 15 years.

The Orioles' road to the finish line isn't quite as smooth as that of the Yankees, but it's not particularly rough either. Their remaining opponents have a combined winning percentage of .473. 

The best part of Baltimore's remaining schedule is a stretch of 10 games against the Blue Jays and the Red Sox. Both of their pitching staffs are in shambles, and that should very much appeal to an Orioles team that has an AL-best .823 OPS in the month of September.

The downside is that the O's are also facing three games against the Mariners at Safeco Field, a stadium where they'll have a hard time putting their power to use. They'll wrap up the season by traveling to Tampa Bay to take on the Rays and their loaded pitching staff.

The Orioles just lost two of three from the Oakland A's at O.co Coliseum, a stadium that saps power almost as much as Safeco Field saps power. That, combined with the fact that Felix Hernandez is going to have a huge chip on his shoulder when the Orioles face him, doesn't bode well. 

What does bode well for the O's is that they've handled the Rays just fine this season to the tune of a 9-6 record. Their hitters have managed Tampa's pitchers well enough, and Baltimore's own pitchers have a 3.26 ERA against the Rays.

I'm expecting some hard times in Seattle for the O's, but they should be able to finish strong after that series is over and done with.

Record in Final Weeks: 11-5

Season Record: 93-69

Tampa Bay Rays

Current Record: 78-68 (3rd in AL East)

The Rays looked like they were a team to beat in the AL wild-card race when they went 17-11 in August, but September hasn't been quite so kind. The Rays are just 7-7 so far this month, and they began this week as losers of seven out of their last 10 games.

If the Rays are going to make a move, they need to do so now. Their next nine games are all against Toronto and Boston, and seven of them are going to be played at home. 

The Rays have handled the Blue Jays just fine this season, going 11-4 against them in 15 games, outscoring them by over 30 runs. They should be able to get the better of the Jays when they come calling at the Trop this weekend.

The Red Sox have been a little tougher against the Rays. After their win against the Rays on Monday night, the Sox are 8-5 against the Rays this season.

As such, the five games Tampa Bay has remaining against Boston could go either way. If the Rays fail to take advantage of them, then the pressure will be on them to make the most of the final seven games on their schedule.

The bad news is that those final seven games consist of a four-game series against the White Sox in Chicago and then a three-game series at home against an Orioles team that has handled them well this season.

The Rays will be fine if their pitchers step up, but their pitching has actually regressed from where it was in August. They posted an AL-best 2.27 ERA last month, and they have a 3.39 ERA so far this month.

A greater emphasis has been placed on Tampa's lineup to score runs, and it hasn't met the challenge. The Rays are 10th in the AL in runs scored so far in September.

In all, it's not looking so good for the Rays.

Record in Final Weeks: 8-8

Season Record: 86-76

Chicago White Sox

Current Record: 80-66 (1st in AL Central)

There's really no overstating how huge the White Sox's win over the Tigers on Monday really was. The Sox upped their lead over Detroit in the AL Central to three games, and the Tigers are out of head-to-head games to try and cut into the deficit.

But the White Sox aren't out of the woods just yet. Their road to the finish line isn't Herculean in difficulty, but it could definitely be easier.

For starters, don't underestimate what the Royals could do to the White Sox when the two teams hook up at Kauffman Stadium this week. The Royals are 10-5 against Chicago this season, and they've won each of the last three series they've played against the Sox.

It doesn't get any easier after Kansas City, as the White Sox then have to head to Anaheim to take on an Angels team that has gotten the better of the season series so far. The Angels also happen to be 10-5 this month with an AL-best 2.23 ERA.

The White Sox will get some respite with a home series against the dreadful Cleveland Indians, and another series against the Tribe awaits them to finish out the season. In between, however, lies a series against the Rays.

The White Sox swept the Rays in the only series the two teams have played this year, but that was a long time ago. Their ability to beat the Rays will be contingent on their ability to hit the long ball, and few teams give up fewer long balls than the Rays (0.95 HR/9).

That's a series that could end in a split, meaning there are three series remaining on Chicago's schedule that they may not win.

Buckle up, Sox fans. There's going to be some turbulence between now and October 3.

Record in Final Weeks: 7-9

Season Record: 87-75

Detroit Tigers

Current Record: 77-69 (2nd in AL Central)

If I'm the Detroit Tigers, I honestly don't know what's worse: The fact that they lost to the White Sox on Monday or the fact that they lost mainly because of a bases-loaded hit-by-pitch and an error that helped score two runs.

That right there is Detroit's season in a nutshell. 

...Maybe now's not the best time to mention that the world-beating Oakland A's are coming to town.

The A's will be in town for a three-game set starting on Tuesday. Home cooking should, in theory, help the Tigers win the series when all is said and done, but we're talking about an A's team that has held the Tigers to a .679 OPS and a single home run in four head-to-head meetings this season. They've also proved to be a great road team, so the Tigers will have their work cut out for them.

The bright side is that things are going to get awfully easy for the Tigers after Oakland leaves town. From then on, they only play the Royals and the Twins. Combined against the two of them this season, the Tigers are 14-9.

The Tigers will need more good work out of their starting pitchers down the stretch, and that's not a whole lot to ask against teams like the Twins and the Royals. They've been swinging the bats pretty well this month, but Tigers pitchers have a 3.09 ERA against the Royals and a solid 3.70 ERA against the Twins on the season.

Much will depend on how the Tigers fare in the seven games against the Royals and Twins that they'll play at home. The Tigers have a 43-28 record at Comerica Park this season, and they'll need to add to that.

If they do, they'll have some momentum for the six-game road trip they'll take through Minnesota and Kansas City to finish out the season.

And let's face it. If there's a team in the American League that is long overdue for some momentum, it's the Tigers.

Record in Final Weeks: 11-5

Season Record: 88-74

Texas Rangers

Current Record: 87-59 (1st in AL West)

No team in the AL West has it easy down the stretch. That includes the Rangers.

The only sub-.500 team the Rangers will play the rest of the way is a Mariners team that has a respectable 7-9 record against the Rangers in head-to-head competition. Aside from them, the Rangers will play seven games against the A's and six against the Angels.

Yikes.

It's not all bad, though. The Rangers are tied for the AL-lead this month with 25 home runs, and their starting pitchers have put together a solid 3.58 ERA this month. At this juncture, I doubt anybody wants to face Yu Darvish or Ryan Dempster.

It just so happens the two of them will both start against the Angels down in Anaheim this week, and the Rangers are lined up to throw Darvish and Matt Harrison against the A's later this week. You never know with Harrison, but he was brilliant his last time out and he's generally handled the A's pretty well this year.

Nine of Texas' last 16 games will be on the road, so the Rangers will need to make the most of their seven-game homestand against the A's and Angels before wrapping up their season in Oakland. 

To keep their three-game lead in the AL West from evaporating, the Rangers will need their pitchers to keep pitching well, and they'll need Josh Hamilton and Adrian Beltre to keep mashing the ball.

I could think of worse things to hedge my bets on.

Record in Final Weeks: 10-6

Final Record: 97-85

Oakland A's

Current Record: 84-62 (2nd in AL West)

The A's enter the week as winners of eight out of their last 10 games, and they didn't exactly beat up on lightweights. They swept the Mariners, took three out of four from the Angels, and two out of three from the Orioles.

They can't relax just yet. In fact, they won't be able to relax at any point in the next two weeks. Their schedule won't allow it.

On Tuesday, the A's will begin a 10-game road swing that will take them through Detroit, New York and Texas. They'll then head home to finish their season off with a six-game homestand against Seattle and the Rangers.

It's not an easy finish by any stretch of the imagination, but the A's have the goods to avoid total disaster.

For one, we're talking about a team with a 3.22 ERA in September and a 3.44 ERA since the All-Star break. They have four rookies and a guy fresh off Tommy John surgery in their starting rotation, but that's proved to be a surprisingly good mix.

Second, the A's can hit the long ball. Only the White Sox have slugged more home runs since the All-Star break.

The 10-game road trip the A's are facing is a doozy, but they should be able to at least break even when all is said and done. After that, they'll need their pitching to be characteristically dominant in their six remaining home games. The A's have a 3.10 ERA at home, third in the AL behind the Rays and Mariners.

Record in Final Weeks: 10-6

Season Record: 94-88

Los Angeles Angels

Current Record: 80-67 (3rd in AL West)

No matter which way you look at it, the Angels have ground to make up. They're 7.5 games behind the Rangers in the AL West race, and 2.5 games out in the AL wild-card race.

They could do with an easy schedule to finish off their season. Alas, their schedule is just as rough as Texas' and Oakland's.

Down the stretch, the Angels will play six games each against the Rangers and Mariners, and three games against the White Sox. Nine of their 15 remaining games are at home, but that has to be taken for what it's worth. The Angels aren't much better at home than they are on the road, in large part because they're 10th in the American League in runs scored at home.

The good news for the Angels is that their pitching has come around to post an AL-best 2.23 ERA this month. Their bullpen has been particularly good with an AL-best 1.58 ERA.

Pitching isn't what the Angels should be worried about, however. Their offense has tumbled into mediocrity this month, and that's thanks largely to the fact that some of their big guns have gone silent. 

Albert Pujols has a .676 OPS this month. Mark Trumbo is showing signs of life, but he still has a .374 OPS this month. Mike Trout's .797 OPS this month is solid for any other hitter, but not so much for him.

Given the Angels' sudden offensive issues, my main concern is how they'll fare against the White Sox and Rangers, two teams that can hit home runs in bunches. 

The Angels' pitching will keep them from falling totally flat down the stretch, but they'll need more than just pitching to go on the kind of run they need to make the playoffs.

Record in Final Weeks: 8-7

Season Record: 88-74

So in the End...

AL East Champ: Orioles (93-69)

AL Central Champ: Tigers (88-74)

AL West Champ: Rangers (97-85)

Wild Card No. 1: A's (94-88)

Wild Card No. 2: Yankees (92-70)

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter.