NFL Picks Week 1: Predicting Biggest Season-Opening Games Against Spread

It all begins, again. After seven months of anticipation, build, trades, free agency, drafts, fantasy projections and analysis, the NFL is back with a full slate of games that will fill up hours of conversation until next weekend. 

Week 1 is all about setting the tone for what's to come in 2012. All the predictions and preseason talk gives way to games that actually matter, with players actually trying to win. 

Of course, because everything is so new, trying to predict a game against the spread becomes that much more difficult. 

But we are nothing if not risk-takers, so here is a look at what we expect from the marquee matchups in Week 1 of the NFL season. 

Odds courtesy of Bovada.

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (-3)

For all the talk about the Jets getting ready to spontaneously combust, they are still getting some love from the oddsmakers. Granted, every home team is automatically given a three-point edge just for the "advantage" playing in front of a supportive crowd gives. 

Despite the Jets being favored, I think the people are overlooking how much better the Bills will be in 2012. Yes, Ryan Fitzpatrick is just as likely to throw 25 interceptions as he is 25 touchdowns, but dig deeper and there is a lot to like. 

For starters, they got a significant upgrade on the defensive line with Mario Williams coming over from Houston. Even though he played in just five games last season, the No. 1 pick in the 2006 Draft had five sacks. He is a game changer who can make everyone around him look better. 

Also, they are hoping to shore up their secondary with rookie cornerback Stephon Gilmore. He is going to need time to adjust, but going up against a passing offense that looked as bad as New York's did in preseason should help him ease right in. 

Panic hasn't set in for the Jets yet. It will when they see what happens to their offense in this game. 

Bills 27, Jets 14

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers (-5)

Unquestionably the biggest game of the day, these were the two best teams in the NFC during the regular season in 2011. The Packers went 15-1 but failed to win a playoff game. The 49ers shocked everyone by going 13-3 before falling to the Giants in the NFC Championship Game. 

All that goodwill these two teams earned based on their regular season performance last year will give way to huge expectations that will be difficult for either team to match unless they walk away with a Lombardi Trophy at the end of the year. 

This is a classic matchup of specialty vs. specialty; the unstoppable force vs. the immovable object. The Packers' high-octane, quick-strike offense vs. the 49ers intense, hard-hitting defense. 

Normally most people will tell you to look at the defense in a matchup like this. But the Packers are not your standard, run-of-the-mill offense. Aaron Rodgers is the most precise quarterback in the sport. He has so many weapons to throw to, far more than the 49ers can cover at a given time. 

Despite some of the upgrades made in the offseason, and Alex Smith's progress as a passer last season, they are not going to be able to score enough to win the game. It will be closer than the experts think, but the Packers prevail. 

Packers 28, 49ers 24

Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos (-2)

I'm not sure if you guys have heard, but Peyton Manning is making his debut with the Broncos on Sunday Night Football. 

Of course that game would come against the Steelers, one of Manning's biggest rivals during his time in Indianapolis. So what should we expect from this clash of titans?

It is hard to know exactly what Manning will bring to the table. Analysts like to talk about what they saw in preseason, but I don't often trust anything I see in August. 

The Steelers are likely going to be without starting running back Rashard Mendenhall. Josina Anderson of ESPN is reporting that Isaac Redman will get the start tonight, which is not necessarily a bad thing, as he has proven to be adept at handling an increased role. 

"

Sources: Steelers RB Isaac Redman will get the start tonight against the Broncos.

— Josina Anderson (@JosinaAnderson) September 9, 2012"

The biggest absence for the Steelers will be Ryan Clark, whose sickle cell trait makes it difficult for him to handle the high altitude Denver presents. 

The Broncos have brought in a lot of Manning's old friends because he has an easy rapport with them. If he can find a rhythm early, this could turn into an ugly affair for the Steelers. 

Broncos 30, Steelers 21

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