NFL Week 1: Last Minute Odds, Picks Against the Spread

Week 1 NFL point spreads have been available in the betting market since April, which makes things difficult for sports handicappers who have been following baseball for the past five months.

There's been some significant movement in the betting odds (courtesy of SBR Forum) over this period of time—something that should have every sports bettor practicing sound money management with such a long season ahead.

Let's take a closer look at the numbers and find out which teams you should be looking at when making your NFL picks on Sunday.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Chicago Bears

Current Betting Odds

The Indianapolis Colts are officially double-digit road underdogs across the board, which is a bit surprising due to the amount of media attention quarterback Andrew Luck receives. 

Closing Number

I believe the final betting odds will move back to the single-digit range before kickoff, as there's seemingly no way a casual fan is going to back Chicago Bears signal-caller Jay Cutler at this price.

Recommendation

Chicago is a popular pick by many people who follow the NFL closely, which has me a bit leery in this situation. I'm still going to recommend playing the Bears if the number moves back down to 9.5 or lower. 

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Minnesota Vikings

Current Betting Odds

The Minnesota Vikings are still laying just over a field goal in the betting odds, which is a point lower than its opening number.

Closing Number

It wouldn't surprise me if the Jaguars continue to attract solid action at the betting window, especially after activating running back Maurice Jones-Drew. The host kicking off as a 2.5-point favorite isn't out of the question.

Recommendation

This is perhaps the most difficult game on the board, as both young quarterbacks have a lot to prove in 2012. Playing the Vikings in the first half might be the best play, considering they blew numerous first-half leads in the early going last year.

Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets

Current Betting Odds

Before you walk into the sports book on Sunday and find the Buffalo Bills as an attractive bet as 2.5-point road underdogs, please consider that they were receiving six points in June.

Closing Number

There's certainly the opportunity to middle this game (win both sides) if you got the best of it on the underdog a few months ago, as a New York Jets three-point victory isn't out of the question. Quarterback Mark Sanchez likely kicks off as a field-goal favorite. 

Recommendation

The Bills are expected to be one of the more improved pass-rushing teams in the league, but that's designed to stop the New England Patriots—not the Jets. Really only one direction to go from a value standpoint.

Miami Dolphins vs. Houston Texans

Current Betting Odds

The Miami Dolphins are currently receiving 13.5 points against the Houston Texans on Sunday, which is light years away from the opening number of 6.5.

Closing Number

There's not many reasons to wager on the Dolphins at this point, but that's often when the major players step up in a big way. I could see this number fall to 11.5 in some spots by the opening kickoff.

Recommendation

Don't even think about playing the Texans in this spot, as the value has completely vanished. Houston may struggle getting up for this game after participating in the playoffs for the first time last year, while not opening a season against a division rival.

New England Patriots vs. Tennessee Titans

Current Betting Odds

The Tennessee Titans were looking like a great side to back as six-point home underdogs a few days ago, but that number has now fallen by 1.5 points in most spots.    

Closing Number

Due to not anticipating this line dropping below six a few days ago, I simply can't imagine it going any lower than it already is. The New England Patriots are going to attract public action from here on out.

Recommendation

If you're looking to play the defending AFC champions, it's time to get to the sportsbook. I'll be watching this number closely in hopes of grabbing six points or higher on the other side.

St. Louis Rams vs. Detroit Lions

Current Betting Odds

One of the few games that has seen very little movement in the betting odds, as the Detroit Lions continue to sit as nine-point home favorites. 

Closing Number

Sports bettors need to keep a close eye on this number, as any downward movement would signal a sharp move in my opinion. I'm expecting the host to kick off as 7.5-point favorites. 

Recommendation

I'm going to back the Rams at this level, as I expect new head coach Jeff Fisher to use running back Steven Jackson in a big way—similarly to the way he called on Eddie George and Chris Johnson in Tennessee.

Washington Redskins vs. New Orleans Saints

Current Betting Odds

The New Orleans Saints are being offered as favorites in the 7.5- to 9-point range, which could demonstrate the importance of line shopping by the end of the day.  

Closing Number

The announcement of previous suspensions being lifted for a couple of the Saints players had minimal affect on the Las Vegas number, but it may provide a lift to the home locker room on Sunday. I'm expecting New Orleans to kick off as nine-point favorites.

Recommendation

Washington Redskins head coach Mike Shanahan has enjoyed great success in season openers during his career—something that I can't ignore with Sean Payton missing from the other sideline.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Cleveland Browns

Current Betting Odds

The Philadelphia Eagles are close to joining the Chicago Bears and Houston Texans as double-digit favorites, but they'd be the only team in the group playing away from home.

Closing Number

I don't anticipate the line moving down, as many sports bettors are anticipating a bounce-back season from the Eagles, while the Browns are an unknown commodity.

Recommendation

You're not going to get rich laying this amount of points in NFL season openers over the course of time, but Eagles head coach Andy Reid has done a great job getting his team ready in this situation in the past.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Current Betting Odds

The Atlanta Falcons can be found at various prices in the betting market, with most places offering them as 2.5-point road favorites. 

Closing Number

I don't anticipate much change in the market for this matchup, as the Kansas City Chiefs are going to attract some action in their season opener as an underdog at Arrowhead Stadium.

Recommendation

I really don't have a strong opinion on this game, but part of me thinks the Falcons will learn how to win in this situation, as they've dropped their last two season openers as favorites of three or fewer points on the road.

San Francisco 49ers vs. Green Bay Packers

Current Betting Odds

The Green Bay Packers are five-point home favorites against the San Francisco 49ers, but that number will certainly move due to the amount of public action that this game will attract on Sunday. 

Closing Number

NFL oddsmakers tested the market in my opinion when releasing the Packers as seven-point favorites a few months ago—almost knowing they'd receive action on the other side. I believe the line will head back in the other direction before kickoff. 

Recommendation

I'm backing the host in this marquee NFC matchup.

Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals

Current Betting Odds

The Seattle Seahawks are three-point road favorites against the Arizona Cardinals, which makes this one of the more interesting games to wager on.

Closing Number

There's literally no chance that the Seahawks move past one of the key numbers in football wagering (three), especially since the public knows the Cardinals usually play their best football at home.

Recommendation

The Seahawks are a new-look team, but I'm not interested in backing them at such a price when they've failed to cover their last seven road openers.

Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Current Betting Odds

The Carolina Panthers join the Atlanta Falcons and Seattle Seahawks as small road favorites on Sunday, which is a situation to monitor throughout the day.

Closing Number

If you're looking to play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this weekend, I suggest waiting until the last moments before kickoff. The visitor may attract enough public action in the morning to break the three-point barrier. 

Recommendation

This is the scariest number on the Las Vegas odds board. Tread carefully.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Denver Broncos

Current Betting Odds

Sports bettors will get the opportunity to line shop on Sunday night, as the Denver Broncos are being offered as one- to two-point favorites in the betting market.

Closing Number

I don't think this line is going to move much from here on out, especially with some large underdog bets coming in on the Pittsburgh Steelers as 2.5-point road underdogs a few months ago.

Recommendation

If you're looking to play the quarterback angle between Ben Roethlisberger and Peyton Manning, I suggest taking the points.