Fantasy Football Draft Strategy 2012: Which QBs Are Worth First-Round Pick?

Conventional wisdom advises fantasy football owners to take a running back in the first round of drafts, but a select few quarterbacks are worthy of being the first player on your team’s roster. 

The holy trinity of running backs this year is Arian Foster, Ray Rice and LeSean McCoy. All three of these players will receive high numbers of carries, can run between the tackles or break outside for large gains and can catch the ball extremely well. These players should be taken with the top-three picks.

After those running backs, there are three quarterbacks who are worth first-round picks. Here they are, with suggestions for when in the round to take them.

Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers 

Suggested Pick: 4 

Rodgers is the best quarterback in the NFL. He is also the best bet to score the most fantasy points this season, but top running backs are more valuable than top passers because so few RBs receive a large majority of the carries for their team.

Still, once the top-three players are gone, Rodgers is the easy choice for a fantasy owner in possession of the No. 4 pick.

He is a remarkably efficient passer who is just 28 years old. Rodgers is in his prime and will not take a step back this season.

He may not put up quite the same statistics, but 35 touchdowns passes and fewer than 10 interceptions is a safe bet from the reigning MVP.

Tom Brady, New England Patriots

Suggested Pick: 5

Rodgers’ 2011 performance was remarkably similar to Brady’s MVP campaign in 2010. 

Both players are capable of unleashing shockingly efficient seasons that feature dozens of touchdown passes and very few interceptions. It is certainly possible that Brady will have a better year than Rodgers, but the New England QB is older and was not quite as productive last season, making him slightly riskier to take with your first pick.

Still, there is little to separate these two elite passers, and having Brady fall to you with the fifth pick is an excellent consolation prize after losing out on Rodgers. 

There is no other player worth taking in this position more than Brady.

Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints

Suggested Pick: 8 

Brees was a fantasy superstar last season with the amount of yards he produced, but he faces questions going into 2012. 

The Saints’ offense will have to get by without Sean Payton in a hands-on role. The unit may not have the same killer instinct as it did during its record-setting season without the offensive guru.

Even with all the uncertainties and distractions emanating from the bounty scandal, Brees will almost certainly go on to have another prolific year. Still, the tumultuous offseason in New Orleans makes Brees riskier than the other two quarterbacks.

It also makes Tennessee Titans running back Chris Johnson and Detroit Lions wide receiver Calvin Johnson better picks than Brees. Chris Johnson has the potential to return to his form from two seasons ago and be equally as productive as the top-three players at his position, and if Calvin Johnson performs like he did last year, he will be far ahead of any other wideout.