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NFL Picks Week 1: Betting Lines Begging to Be Exploited

Richard LangfordJun 7, 2018

The start of the NFL season can be the start of moneymaking season with a little wager—through appropriate and legal methods of course—on the following plays. 

There are a lot of unknowns at the start of a season. This makes lines exploitable. It is just a matter of identifying which ones to target. Here are three. 

*Betting lines according to Bovada on 9/5

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Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints

Faulty Line: Saints -7.5

Play: Redskins

The Saints have had an insanely crazy offseason. They have had to battle with the results of the bounty scandal and Drew Brees' contract issues. 

Suspensions from the bounty scandal have left them to start this game with an interim head coach that is filling in for their interim head coach. 

Yes, the Saints are talented and experienced, but this is going to take a toll. Robert Griffin III and the revamped Redskins will make this one interesting. 

Prediction: Saints 27, Redskins 24

New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans

Faulty Line: Patriots -6

Play: Patriots

The Patriots are going to come out firing. They added to their receiving corps in what was already a deadly offense. 

In this one, Tom Brady will be going against a Titans team that was 14th last season in opponent passing yards. While they lost Cortland Finnegan from that secondary, they still have solid young corners, but combine the Patriots receivers with tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, and the Titans will not be able to stop New England's offense. 

This is going to put way too much pressure on second-year QB Jake Locker to produce. 

Prediction: Patriots 31, Titans 20


San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders

Faulty Line: Raiders -1 

Play: Chargers

The Raiders offense has looked terrible in the preseason. Carson Palmer only led the Raiders on one touchdown drive all preseason. Their receivers are banged up, and they do not seem to have a good grasp of new offensive coordinator Greg Knapp's offense. 

Until I see something a little more positive from this offense, I'm rolling under the assumption that scoring points this season is going to be like pulling teeth. 

Meanwhile, the Chargers defense has shown vast improvements. While the offense has not been setting the world on fire, they aren't going to need to score many to win this one. 

Prediction: Chargers 20, Raiders 10

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