NFL Picks Week 1: Season Openers That Will Go Down to the Wire

Following the conclusion of the preseason, we have some good ideas about how certain teams are going to fare in the regular season; others, we're still not so sure about.

We don't know how the rookie quarterbacks are going to perform when it really counts, or how Peyton Manning's neck is going to hold up this season, or whether some teams are as good (Seahawks) or as bad (Dolphins) as they seemed to be during the exhibition slate.

That's why, for some of these teams, it's harder to predict  how Week 1 will end. Here's a look at some of the games that could go either way.

Colts at Bears
Sunday, Sept. 9, 1 p.m. ET

Andrew Luck is still a wild card, no matter how good he was in the preseason.

For a rookie quarterback, he was good. Granted, he started out strong and then seemed to taper off a bit as the schedule stretched on. In the first game, a 38-3 demolition of the Rams, he threw for 188 yards with two touchdowns and no sacks or interceptions. Pretty good for his first crack at an NFL defense.

But although the preseason signs were positive, we still don't know how Luck is going to perform when he faces a real, first-string defense. We also don't know how the Bears' defense in 2012 is going to compare to the 17th-best product it put on the field in 2011, or how Jay Cutler will bounce back after missing the end of the 2011 season with a broken thumb.

This one shouldn't be a blowout; it will be a battle between two teams and two quarterbacks that still have a lot of growing to do, and a lot to prove.

Pick: Bears

Steelers at Broncos
Sunday, Sept. 9, 8:20 p.m. ET

It's been hard to get a read on Peyton Manning throughout the preseason. All we know is that he's been working his teammates to the bone, and that he feels fully recovered from the neck injury that knocked him out of the 2011 season, and that the Broncos seem to have made a colossal upgrade at quarterback, and they were already pretty good.

If all of those factors prove to be true, the Broncos will be an excellent opponent for the Steelers in Week 1. Pittsburgh won its last three preseason games, and even though its defense hasn't been the impenetrable wall we're used to seeing during the regular season, it will be a different story once the games start counting.

It will certainly be an interesting matchup to watch: Manning, whom we haven't seen since the very beginning of January 2011, against the Steelers' defense. There couldn't be a better barometer for how good the Broncos (and Manning) truly are, and both of these teams will have to work for the W.

Pick: Broncos

49ers at Packers
Sunday, Sept. 9 at 4:25 p.m. ET

It wouldn't be surprising if these two teams were the last two standing in the NFC at the end of this season. It also wouldn't be a surprise if this season opener comes down to whichever quarterback can have the bigger game.

Last season, the 49ers—who made it all the way to the NFC Championship before falling to the Giants—and the Packers were a study in contrasts. The Packers had the worst defense in the NFL but the third-best offense behind Aaron Rodgers; the 49ers were a bit of a surprise, making a big run with the 26th-ranked offense but the fourth-best defense in the NFL.

San Francisco took the offseason to make the necessary improvements to its offense, bringing in Randy Moss, Mario Manningham and Brandon Jacobs. Now, if Alex Smith has the kind of season he had last year instead of the kind of season he had for the previous five, the 49ers should be able to make a serious run yet again.

Knocking off the Packers on the road in the season opener would be a good place to start, but Rodgers isn't going to be easy to out-perform.

Pick: Packers