NHL CBA: Why a Salary Rollback Is a Non-Starter for the NHLPA

There's a certain maturity to the early reports of the negotiations between the National Hockey League and the NHL Players' Association.

The rhetoric is calm. Nobody is threatening a strike or a walkout. NHLPA boss Donald Fehr has called Sept. 15 just a "date on the calendar," meaning that if the two sides have not reached an agreement, it doesn't mean that a work stoppage is at hand (source: Wall Street Journal.com).

Additionally, the issues that the two sides are discussing regarding training camp, injuries, roster moves and medical care don't involve a big difference of opinion, according to Fehr (source: Yahoo! Sports).

However, the elephant in the room is the subject of salary rollback.

If the NHL is going to insist that players roll back their salaries further after giving in on that issue in the last Collective Bargaining Agreement, it will increase the level of hostility between the two sides.

In fact, if it's something that the owners are going to demand, it could lead to an end to the negotiations before they begin.

Here's the issue at hand. Salaries were rolled back 24 percent during the 2004-05 work stoppage. At this point, owners are looking for another 24 percent roll back.

NHLPA analysts came up with this figure because the league is asking for a reduction in the players' share of the revenue to 46 percent. However, it is also asking for certain hockey-related revenue (HRR) to be excluded from the equation.

The exclusions and the owners' proposal would effectively reduce the players' share of the revenue to 43 percent, according to David Shoalts of the Toronto Globe and Mail.

On its face, this would appear to be a hard slap in the face to those who gave up so much in the last CBA.

For all the pleasantries coming from both sides, it might be difficult for Fehr to negotiate seriously with the league if it is going to maintain that position.

Even if Fehr is able to sit across the table from the league's representatives, it would be impossible for him to go to the players and ask them to accept what the owners are presenting.

So, it appears that serious negotiations may be difficult to maintain if the owners are not going to move from their initial proposal.

Does that mean a work stoppage is likely?

That's not necessarily the case. Since Fehr has maintained that Sept. 15 is just a date on the calendar, it is clear that he will force the owners to make the hostile move of locking players out of training camp. Fehr says the players are willing to maintain working under the current conditions whether they have a new agreement or not.

That's a strong position, and it's one that will win points with the game's advertisers and fans. Fehr is maintaining a "reasonable" persona. If the league locks its doors, it will be difficult to see that as reasonable behavior.

The next step is a counter proposal from the NHLPA. Fehr would not commit to a specific date for the proposal, but it is clear that the players will have a different take when they come to the table.

Both sides agree that revenues have increased significantly since the last work stoppage. However, while some teams are quite profitable due to these revenue increases, some of the smaller market teams are not (source: Toronto Globe and Mail). This may be part of the motivation for asking for concessions from the players.

Fehr may suggest new ways for the league to share its revenues as part of the NHLPA's counterproposal.

If the league wants to listen and negotiate, a work stoppage is not inevitable.

However, stubbornness and strong rhetoric may be the indicator that owners will lock their doors Sept. 15.

The owners are not likely to show their hand until the players come back with their counter propsoal. The hockey world waits anxiously.