Statistical Trends That Should Carry into the 2012 NFL Season

 

One of the absolute best things about the NFL is that it is like the wild wild west. Unpredictable outcomes, unheard of breakout performances and parity are all attributes that make the NFL great. 

Even though the outcomes of games are unpredictable, there are three trends that can easily be predicted with the help of statistics.

4,000 is the new 3,000

Since 2009 the NFL has seen 25 4,000-yard passers. The highest number of any three-year stretch in NFL history. It is a pass-happy league, and there is no evidence of that trend slowing anytime soon.

According to Pro Football Reference there were 10,464 passes completed in 2011, which equaled 117,601 yards. The league-wide completion percentage was just above 60 with a quarterback rating of 84.3. 

Single-season passing records are starting to fall fast thanks to modern-day passers like Drew Brees. In 2011 he set some notable records on his own: most completions in a season (468), highest completion percentage in a season (71.2) and the single most passing yards in a season (5,476). Brees broke countless other multiple-season and career passing records in 2011. For a full list go here.

Aside from individual records going down, there were a heap of league passing records that fell in 2011 as well. Thanks to the good people at Cold Hard Football Facts, here is a complete rundown.

Record	2011 Record
Most 300-yard passing games	121
Most 400-yard passing games	18
Most 5,000 yard passers	3
Most 4,500 yard passers	6
Most QBs w/40+ TD passes	3
Highest league-wide passer rating	84.3
Most gross passing yards/game	244.8
Most net passing yards/game	229.7
League-wide TD:INT ratio	1.472

With 3,000-yard seasons being seen as good, but not great, does it bother anyone that passing numbers are getting so high? Or is air-it-out football good for ratings and the overall popularity of the game? Personally, it's irrelevant to me as long as there is football on Sundays. 

Making an impact

Don't let the headline mislead because rookies have always made an impact, but players that are coming into the league are more NFL ready now than in the past. In all fairness, this is the way it should be—college football is the minor leagues to the NFL. 

There used to be a transition period that came with being a rookie. Rookies rarely made the Pro Bowl in the NFL's yesteryears with it being almost unheard of if a rookie started in the game. Enter 2011, where five rookies participated in the Pro Bowl and three started in it. 

With the help of Pro Football Focus' statistics, let's take a look at some performances of players who proved they are NFL ready.

There's no question Von Miller was the best rookie in the league last year, he was maybe the best defensive player in all of football. Whether Miller had his hand in the ground or was in the upright position, he did everything well. It's rare to come across a player who plays the run as well as he rushes the passer. On his way to Rookie of the Year he registered 13 sacks, 21 quarterback hits and 36 quarterback hurries. Pro Football Focus had him graded out at a 53.4, the highest graded player of 2011 minus Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers.

Cam Newton is the man who just about broke every rookie passing record there was. Leading up to 2011 he had his supporters and he had his doubters, but I don't think anyone predicted him to play as well as he did. Pro Football Focus had him rated as its 13th best quarterback on the season. Newton threw for 4,051 yards, rushed for 706 yards and scored a combined 35 touchdowns on the season. For a list of all the rookie records he broke, check out his Wikipedia page.

Lastly, I want to tell you about a guy who wasn't drafted in the top five. Richard Sherman didn't even start the season as the starting cornerback—the only reason he even saw the field was because of injuries. However, he surely made the most out of his chances. He made his first start in Week 8, and from that point on he proved why so many people missed out on a talented corner that lasted until the fifth round. Sherman was thrown at 84 times last year, only allowing 39 completions for an opposing quarterback rating of 57.3. Out of the 109 corners Pro Football Focus graded, Sherman clocked in at No. 15 on the list. 

Expect rookies to keep coming into the league more prepared than ever, which will only help them to stand out statistically even more than they already do.

One foot In the grave

The workhorse back in the NFL is truly a dying breed. There aren't many left, and if you still have a one-back system you're trying to find a way to transition out of it. 

When I think of workhorse backs, I think of guys like Steven Jackson, Michael Turner and Maurice Jones Drew. There is no real definition of a workhorse, but when I define it I look at the number of carries, and 300-plus carries in a season constitutes a workhorse to me. 

By looking at some of the numbers from the past few years, it is easy to see that 300 carries a season is becoming a rarity. In 2011, two players carried the ball 300-plus times. Flashback 10 years before that, and the top 10 rushers in the league would have 300-plus carries. Heck, in 2000, Eddie George carried the ball 403 times for the Tennessee Titans.

Year	# of RBs with 300+ Carries
2011	2
2010	7
2009	6
2008	5
2007	6
2006	10
2005	10
2004	9
2003	13
2002	9
2001	10

Appreciate the workhorse back while you can because it is a proven trend: Workhorse backs are becoming extinct.