Fantasy Football 2012: Expanded Breakdown of 12-Team Mock Draft, Rounds 1-4

On Wednesday, I participated in my first live mock draft of the summer (12 teams/standard-scoring rules).

Here are the first 48 picks from the 65-minute simulation (with just 30 seconds between selections):

(For a complete breakdown of my squad, click here.)

Round 1
1. RB Arian Foster, Texans
2. RB LeSean McCoy, Eagles
3. QB Tom Brady, Patriots
4. RB Ray Rice, Ravens
5. QB Aaron Rodgers, Packers
6. RB Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars
7. WR Calvin Johnson, Lions
8. RB Ryan Mathews, Chargers
9. RB Adrian Peterson, Vikings
10. QB Drew Brees, Saints
11. RB Chris Johnson, Titans
12. RB Matt Forte, Bears (my pick)

Breakdown

• Short of Tom Brady passing for 5,000 yards and 39 touchdowns again, there's no point in drafting him at No. 3 overall—especially with Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees left on the board. Yes, Brady has some amazing options in the passing game (including new additions Brandon Lloyd and Jabar Gaffney), but good drafting is about getting great value on every pick. And Brady hasn't held top-3 value since 2008, the summer after his record-breaking campaign of 50 touchdown passes. One final thing: Brady has never eclipsed the 5,000-yard passing mark in consecutive seasons.
• Speaking of value picks, there's little to gain and everything to lose by reaching for Adrian Peterson at No. 9 overall. After all, he's not a mortal lock to be ready for Week 1 action, despite making great progress from last December's major knee injury. The PUP list—which removes injured/rehabbing players from the first six games of a season—looms as a possibility, albeit a remote one.

Round 2
13. QB Matthew Stafford, Lions (my pick)
14. WR Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals
15. RB DeMarco Murray, Cowboys
16. WR Andre Johnson, Texans
17. TE Rob Gronkowski, Patriots
18. RB Darren McFadden, Raiders
19. WR Roddy White, Falcons
20. WR Greg Jennings, Packers
21. RB Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks
22. RB Jamaal Charles, Chiefs
23. QB Cam Newton, Panthers
24. WR Mike Wallace, Steelers

Breakdown

• Without a doubt, DeMarco Murray has top-15 talent in fantasy circles. But the 15th pick in Wednesday's draft belies his consistent draft slot of 34 from the last two months. Bottom line: While it's true you can never have enough quality running backs, that particular owner passed on four elite talents in Round 2 (Darren McFadden, Marshawn Lynch, Larry Fitzgerald, Cam Newton), even though he could have landed Murray (1,080 total yards, two TDs in nine games last year) late in Round 3 (34th overall).
• I'll be shocked to see Rob Gronkowski (90 catches, 1,327 yards, 17 TDs) slide past the 20th pick in any draft this summer; by extension, 17 stands as good value here. There aren't many concerns about Gronk's ankle injury from January...and he's a good bet to tally at least 85 catches for 1,200 yards and 14 touchdowns. (On the flip side, some fantasy dissenters might argue New England's plethora of passing options would dilute Gronk's contribution even more.)

Round 3
25. WR Wes Welker, Patriots
26. WR Brandon Marshall, Bears
27. RB Trent Richardson, Browns
28. TE Jimmy Graham, Saints
29. RB Steven Jackson, Rams
30. WR Hakeem Nicks, Giants
31. WR A.J. Green, Bengals
32. QB Eli Manning, Giants
33. WR Victor Cruz, Giants
34. RB Fred Jackson, Bills
35. QB Michael Vick, Eagles
36. RB Roy Helu, Redskins (my pick)

Breakdown

• There's no reason for Fred Jackson (2011 leader in yards from scrimmage before getting injured) almost falling to Round 4. He averaged 137.6 total yards (44.2 receiving) and five targets per game. Of equal importance, his broken foot has completely healed. Obviously, C.J. Spiller could see a bump in touches, compared to last season, but Jackson is still the engine that drives the Buffalo offense.
• After seeing one mock draft that had Browns rookie Trent Richardson installed as a top-10 pick, I'm happier to see him "drop" to the late 20s. As stated many times on The Fantasy Blog, Richardson favorably compares to Adrian Peterson, circa 2007; so if AP was getting drafted in the mid-40s five years ago, shouldn't Richardson have commensurate value before his inaugural NFL season?

Round 4
37. WR Jordy Nelson, Packers (my pick)
38. WR Julio Jones, Falcons
39. WR Steve Smith, Panthers
40. RB Michael Turner, Falcons
41. RB Frank Gore, 49ers
42. WR Dez Bryant, Cowboys
43. RB Darren Sproles, Saints
44. RB Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants
45. QB Tony Romo, Cowboys
46. WR Marques Colston, Saints
47. TE Vernon Davis, 49ers
48. WR Brandon Lloyd, Patriots

Breakdown

• Seeing Michael Turner and Frank Gore sink to picks 40 and 41 is a real shock to the system. Sure, Turner's name may be mud in Points Per Reception-league circles, but the 30-year-old back still has at least one more dominant campaign in that tank of a body. In rushing totals alone, the man has averaged 1,356 yards in his last two seasons. Throw in 40 total touchdowns from 2008-11 and it seems criminal for Turner to fall that far. If this same scenario should play out in real drafts, Jacquizz Rodgers is a must-handcuff with Turner owners.
• Regarding Gore's unexpected descent, is this a result of Brandon Jacobs signing with the 49ers in the offseason...or the assumption that second- year back Kendall Hunter (668 total yards, two TDs in 2011) can be a full-time and elite tailback heading into the 2013 season?

Jay Clemons can be reached on Twitter, day or night, at @ATL_JayClemons.