NFL Preview: Why the NFC North Will Be the NFL's Best Division in 2012

The past decade or so of NFL football has been dominated by an uneven distribution of power between divisions, like some sort of football oligarchy. The AFC East, AFC North, NFC East and NFC South have traditionally prospered, exhibiting impressive depth, and taking home ten of the last twelve Super Bowls (as the divisions stand now). But in 2011, the upstart NFC North began to infiltrate this upper-ruling class, and could stand poised to reign supreme as the NFL's top division in 2012.

The fall of the NFC Norris––as ESPN's Chris Berman affectionately calls them––began around the same time as Brett Favre's Packers' descent below the ranks of NFL elite. And with Aaron Rodgers leading the Packers securely back into that realm, things appear to have come full circle.

Behind the 15-1 Packers were 2011's most improved squad, the Detroit Lions, and 2011's most unfortunate squad, the Chicago Bears, the latter of which looked poised to make a deep playoff run before Jay Cutler––who was playing the best football of his career––went down with an injury.

Had Cutler stayed healthy, the NFC North very well could have pulled off a feat that only the AFC North and NFC East have grown accustomed to: producing both wild-card teams.

And although the Vikings anchored down the division's depth with their cellar-dwelling 3-13 record, they were actually a deceptively competent football team in the season's first few weeks, before a poor record and the new-found strength of their division prompted them to effectively end their season, and turn things over to their rookie QB, Christian Ponder.

Solely on the strength of their record, the 36-28 NFC North was the second-best division in football last season, trailing only the AFC North, who went 37-27 and placed three teams in the playoffs. The question remains, however: in a league where four divisions have consistently dominated, can the NFC North ascend all the way to the top, or was 2011 merely a fluke?

Let's start the conversation with some process of elimination.

There are eight divisions in the NFL, including the NFC North. That's seven divisions they have to be better than. Off the bat we can eliminate three of those seven: the AFC South, AFC West and NFC West.

Both Western divisions have been mired in ineptitude over the past decade. Teams at the top have enjoyed occasional playoff success––the Chargers and 49ers have made a conference championship each, the Cardinals and Seahawks have appeared in the Super Bowl––but neither division has ever been fruitful from top-to-bottom in a given season. Things didn't change last year, when the AFC West was won by Tim Tebow and the 8-8 Broncos, while the Cardinals finished second in the NFC West, despite have a minus-36 point differential on the season. Neither of these divisions has much upside in 2012.

Like our NFC North however, the AFC South has occasionally threatened to join the ranks of the NFL elite. The traditional formula for a powerhouse division (as we'll see later) includes one powerhouse on the top, and 2-3 teams who oscillate between good and decent behind them. The Manning-era Colts provided the South with that powerhouse, while the Garrard-era Jaguars provided a perennial playoff threat, the Collins-era Titans were capable of inexplicable 13-3 seasons, and the feisty Texans could beat you on any given day.

But the framework of the AFC South has been ravaged, leaving nothing but the ruins of a once esteemed division. The Colts and Jaguars are two of the five worst teams in the league, and the banal Titans are nothing to write home about either. Only the once-putrid Texans remain as a potential champion, but even they come riddled with injury question marks.

That leaves us with five legitimate candidates for the league's top division: the AFC East, AFC North, NFC East, NFC South and NFC North. But how do we whittle these worthy contenders down to one?

Let's start with the most important position on the field: quarterback. Which group sticks out here?

--E. Manning, Romo, Vick, Griffin III

--Brees, Ryan, Newton, Freeman

--Roethlisberger, Flacco, Dalton, Weeden/McCoy

--Rodgers, Stafford, Cutler, Ponder

--Brady, Sanchez/Tebow, Moore/Tannehill, Fitzpatrick

I'm assuming the bold helped most of you figure out it was the AFC East. Other than Brady, there isn't a single top-20 QB in the division. There might not be another top-25 QB in the division! There's no way you can compete to be the league's top unit when you're boasting some of the league's worst signal-callers.

And then there were four.

And of the remaining four only one, the NFC South, has a good chance of being markedly worse in 2012. The bounty scandal that the Saints have found themselves engrossed in, along with Drew Brees' contract dispute––which looks more and more like a legitimate problem every day––make New Orleans one of the league's biggest question marks in the league. The NFC South was once notorious for their topsy-turvy fickleness, but in the past few seasons, the Saints and Falcons have provided stability at the top. Without the Saints, this division could be counting on two of the league's worst defenses (Carolina and Tampa Bay) to provide them with another formidable team. I can't see it happening.

Which brings us, with fairly little debate, to the league's three best divisions––the cream of the crop. The AFC North, the NFC East and the NFC North. 

But how do you differentiate between three divisions that are this good? It's hard, but the best way is to put them head-to-head, and figure out who you think would win. Is it subjective? Yeah. But if anything could be indisputably determined this early in the season, the sportsbooks in Vegas would be broke (hint: they aren't).

AFC North–NFC East:

(1) Steelers v Giants (Giants)

(2) Ravens v Eagles (Ravens)

(3) Bengals v Cowboys (Cowboys)

(4) Browns v Redskins (Redskins)

AFC North–NFC North:

(1) Steelers v Packers (Packers)

(2) Ravens v Lions (Ravens)

(3) Bengals v Bears (Bears)

(4) Browns v Vikings (Vikings)

NFC East–NFC North:

(1) Giants v Packers (Packers)

(2) Eagles v Lions (Eagles)

(3) Cowboys v Bears (Bears)

(4) Redskins v Vikings (Redskins)

(*) Now before I go on, I'm well aware that some of you will take issue with parts of this assessment. But before you accuse me of gerrymandering the results, understand that I am explicitly aware of this part's subjectivity. I'd be happy to partake in a civilized discourse with anyone who is so inclined, and disagrees with anything I've written. But I won't respond to "The Giants beat the Packers in the playoffs you moron!"

Anyway, in my mock-simulation above, the AFC North came out 2-6, while the NFC East and NFC North both came out 5-3.

It's hard to distinguish between the latter two divisions, who are poised to be the two best in the league this upcoming season. What I think sets the North apart from the East is their strength at the top. The Giants are tailor-made for the postseason, but the empirical evidence––along with the eye-test––suggests that they aren't the same dominant force that the Packers are. And if the Bears come back healthy, they could be just as dominant as they were in the middle part of last season––maybe even more so, with the Brandon Marshall-Jay Cutler reunion. God only knows what the North could look like if the Lions' defense learns to play with some discipline.

Either way, it's gonna be a great season in the NFC Norris, and the whole league in general, so let's strap in and get ready for a wild ride!