Offseason Scorecard: Cincinnati Reds

Here is the second entry in the offseason scorecard series.  Today we have the fifth-place Cincinnati Reds.


RECORD: 74-88
PYTHAGOREAN RECORD: 71.2-90.8 (-2.8)
THIRD-ORDER WINS (FROM BASEBALL PROSPECTUS): 67.8-94.2 (-6.2)
TEAM WAR: 9.1 | WAR RECORD 55.8-106.2 (-18.2)

ADDED THROUGH FREE AGENCY (CONTRACT LENGTH/SALARY | 3 YEAR AVERAGE WAR)
RF JONNY GOMES (MLC* | -0.4)
RP ARTHUR RHODES (2 YR/4.0$M | 1.1)
CF WILLY TAVERAS (2 YR/6.25$M | 0.7)
CA HUMBERTO COTA (MLC | 0.2)

SUMMARY:
MONEY SPENT ON FREE AGENTS: 5.93M$/YR
WINS ADDED THROUGH FREE AGENCY: 1.6

*MINOR LEAGUE CONTRACT

ADDED THROUGH RULE5 DRAFT
RP DAVID PATTON (NO PRIOR MAJOR LEAGUE EXPERIENCE)

ADDED THROUGH TRADES (3 YEAR AVERAGE WAR)
CA RAMON HERNANDEZ (2.3)
WINS ADDED THROUGH TRADES: 2.3

TOTAL WINS ADDED: 3.9

LOST THROUGH FREE AGENCY (3 YEAR AVERAGE WAR)
RP JEREMY AFFELDT (0.4)
CA PAUL BAKO (-0.1)
RP MATT BELISLE (0.8)
SP JOSH FOGG (1.0)
RP GARY MAJEWSKI (0.0)
RP KENT MERCKER (-0.1)
CF COREY PATTERSON (0.9)
CA JAVIER VALENTIN (0.9)

WINS LOST THROUGH FREE AGENCY: 3.8

LOST THROUGH TRADES (3 YEAR AVERAGE WAR)
IF/OF RYAN FREEL (0.8)

WINS LOST THROUGH TRADES: 0.8

TOTAL WINS LOST: 4.6

OFFSEASON WIN CHANGE: -0.7

PROJECTED ROSTER:
CA: RAMON HERNANDEZ, RYAN HANIGAN
1B: JOEY VOTTO
2B: BRANDON PHILLIPS, WILKIN CASTILLO
3B: EDWIN ENCARNACION, JEFF KEPPINGER
SS: ALEX GONZALES, JERRY HAIRSTON
LF: CHRIS DICKERSON, NORRIS HOPPER
CF: WILLY TAVERAS
RF: JAY BRUCE
SP: AARON HARANG, EDINSON VOLQUEZ, BRONSON ARROYO, JOHNNY CUETO, MICAH OWINGS
RP: FRANCISCO CORDERO, DAVID WEATHERS, JARED BURTON, BILL BRAY, ARTHUR RHODES, MIKE LINCOLN

I was surprised to see how many players the Reds had lost through Free Agency. Most of these players are marginal, but Patterson, Affeldt, and Belisle (to a point) are all decent assets.

I was also surprised to see how truly awful the Reds were in a context-neutral environment (wins above replacement). The only teams with a lower overall WAR were Seattle and Colorado. Combine this with a bunch of mostly lateral offseason moves, and you have another weak team.

As such, despite all the great young talent coming up through the Reds system (Volquez, Votto, Bruce), as well as a couple established hitters in Phillips and Encarnacion (who, on a side note, has absolutely no business playing third base), I expect another 60-or-70-win year out of Cincinatti.

However, I really think this team could be a power in a few years if they can lock down Volquez and Cueto and find another couple of starting pitchers, whether it’s through the farm system or through free agency. The talent core is there, but 1) they haven’t reached their peak yet and 2) they don’t have the surrounding talent to take them to the next level.