Preakness 2012: Why I'll Have Another Is Still Favorite over Bodemeister

Wouldn't you know it, the winner of the Kentucky Derby is an underdog at the Preakness. 

I'm not really sure how often this sort of thing happens, but the only horse I hear anyone talking about at Pimlico is Bodemeister, even though I'll Have Another is coming off a thoroughly impressive victory at Churchill. 

Let's take a look at why this is the wrong view.

Bodemeister

Bodemeister deserves tons of credit for what he did at the Kentucky Derby, don't get me wrong.

Because of Trinniberg, Bode got out to a frantic opening pace. Trinniberg, who is a short-distance sprinter and does those types of things, eventually fell back because he couldn't keep up that type of speed.

Not Bodemeister, though. 

He kept up that ridiculous pace for almost the entire length of the Kentucky Derby, which is a combination of speed and stamina you just don't see every day. 

He eventually was passed by I'll Have Another in the final 100 yards, but it was an impressive race nonetheless. 

Now, at Pimlico, a much shorter track, everyone just expects Bodemeister to get out to a huge lead and never look back. 

It's not a bad thought, but people are severely underestimating I'll Have Another.

I'll Have Another

Take another look at I'll Have Another's win at the Kentucky Derby:

It was just as impressive of a run as Bodemeister's. I'll Have Another stayed perfectly right behind the opening pace and waited until the perfect moment to make his comeback.

Who's to say he can't just make that final push a lot sooner at Pimlico?

This is a horse that is 3-for-3 in 2012, and that includes two of the best wins of the year at Churchill and at the Grade-1 Santa Anita Derby.

Underdog? I don't think so.

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