I'll Have Another Horse Preakness 2012: Odds and Prediction for Derby Winner

I’ll Have Another was the darling of the 2012 Kentucky Derby, and he is trying to pull off another huge win on Saturday at Pimlico Race Course during the Preakness Stakes.

At 5-2 odds, the colt is one of the clear favorites, with many expecting him to harness the magic he found at Churchill Downs once again.

However, it’s unlikely to happen, and here’s why.

Smaller Field

I’ll Have Another had the advantage at the Run for the Roses. Drawing the No. 19 post—a starting position no horse had ever won in the 138-year history of the event—turned out to be a blessing.

He was able to sit back and make his break late in the race, right as Bodemeister was slowing down after running at a ridiculous pace for as long as he could bear.

Running up alongside and eventually past the big pack of front-runners turned out to be the best thing for the colt. He won’t have that advantage in the small 11-horse field at Preakness.

Bodemeister

We mentioned Bodemeister’s incredible speed at the Derby earlier. Read this quote from Ray Kerrison of the New York Post to see just how wild it was:

"

Bodemeister whistled by the six furlongs in 1:09.8. That’s brutal. Crazy. Bodemeister was running faster than four of the greatest horses of the 20th century, including three Triple Crown winners. That he lost under those conditions should surprise nobody; that he held on for second was stunning.

"

Bodemeister will now be competing on a much shorter track with a lot less of a chance that another colt will be pushing him from behind. He’s a favorite for a reason.

Shorter Track

Speaking of the shorter track, Pimlico is only 1-3/16 of a mile compared to 1-1/4 mile at Churchill Downs.

That extra half of a furlong will be the difference between I’ll Have Another winning and losing to Bodemeister.

He just doesn’t have the pace to keep up with what is the best horse in the field at this distance. 

Prediction: Second Place