Preakness 2012 Contenders: Why I'll Have Another Will Fall Short at Pimlico

I'll Have Another emerged as the surprise winner of the Kentucky Derby despite facing 30-1 odds. Even after winning the Robert B. Lewis Stakes in February and the Santa Anita Derby in April, the horse was not given much of a chance to win the first leg of the Triple Crown. 

Although I'll Have Another proved many doubters wrong with a triumphant surge past the mighty Bodemeister down the stretch at Churchill Downs, the chestnut colt will not be able to deliver another somewhat stunning feat by winning the Preakness to move one step closer to the Triple Crown. 

Here's why: 

Bodemeister 

Despite faltering in the final moments at Churchill Downs, Bodemeister set records for the fastest five splits in Kentucky Derby history. 

Compared to the 1.25-mile Derby, the Preakness is only a one-and-three-sixteenths-mile race, which should benefit the horse that lost the first leg of the Triple Crown by only 1.5 lengths. 

According to Allhorseracing.com, Bodemeister currently sits as a three-to-one favorite, the same as I'll Have Another. 

They are the only two horses with odds better than 10-to-one.

It is pretty clear—the horse that will be the biggest competition to I'll Have Another is Bodemeister. 

Creative Clause 

Creative Clause is a 10-to-one favorite to win the Preakness and, like I'll Have Another, has beaten Bodemeister in the past. 

This horse won the 2012 San Felipe Stakes, a one-and-one-sixteenth-mile race over Bodemeister by  three-quarters of a length.

Creative Clause enters the race with no injury concerns and finished fifth at this year's Derby.

The Track Itself

Tom Valledolmo of NewJerseyNewsRoom.com, recently scripted a column on three key Preakness trends. He says of track at Pimlico: 

"

Preakness is run over a speed-favoring strip at Pimlico which, historically, has made it difficult for horses which don’t have early, tactical speed. The usually lightning-fast surface and the track’s tight turns hinder the come-from-behind types, making it almost impossible for them to mount any serious rallies late in the game. 

"

That bodes well for Bodemeister, the colt that got out to a remarkable start at the Derby. It sounds like it will be more difficult for I'll Have Another to mount another furious rally down the stretch in Baltimore. 

Follow @ChrisTrapasso