Kentucky Derby 2012 Horses: Popular Favorite Union Rags Will Disappoint at Derby

Union Rags is easy to root for.

As a specimen, he is one of the finest at this year's Kentucky Derby. He has the look of a winner, of a horse that could end the sport's long Triple Crown drought. It's little surprise that many have made Union Rags the favorite to win this race.

And he has a compelling backstory as well. Union Rags was sold by owner Phyllis Wyeth, but after having a dream that the horse would do great things, she bought him back.

And he might. Or he might disappoint, as has been his calling card in recent memory.

Union Rags is winless in two of his past three starts, finishing second to Hansen at the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs and third at the Florida Derby, a race he was expected to win.

And it seems like every time we expect the horse to finally step up to the plate and simply dominate as he is capable of, he disappoints. We make excuses for him, like a bad draw or a poor showing by jockey Julien Leparoux.

But as Bill Finley of ESPN noted, perhaps Union Rag has simply showed his tragic flaw in those races:

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Should he have found a way to overcome adversity and win the Breeders' Cup Juvenile? Was the acceleration really there when he finally found a hole in the Florida Derby? What I see now is a horse that is very talented but, maybe, not much of a fighter. Is Union Rags a little soft? That's the question he must answer Saturday at Churchill Downs.

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Count me among those who hope Union Rags wins this race. I love the backstory, and he's a horse that looks like he could be truly special.

But I can't shake the notion that Union Rags will disappoint us all once again.

I hope I'm wrong.

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