Kentucky Derby 2012 Post Positions: Good Draw Makes Gemologist Runaway Favorite

Gemologist isn't the odds-on favorite to win the 2012 Kentucky Derby, but the undefeated colt is going to win this race.

Currently going off at 13/2, according to Bovada, Gemologist trails both Union Rags and Bodemeister in the minds of oddsmakers, but they're mistaken.

The Todd Pletcher trained horse will have Javier Castellano, who almost had to sit this one out because of a spill he took on Friday, in the saddle and breaks from the 15th post.

While post positions can be a bit overrated, Gemologist could not have drawn better in the 138th "Run for the Roses."

Why? Because the 15th post is perfectly suited to his needs.

Both Gemologist and Hansen, who runs from the 14th post, are lucky enough to have extra space in the gate because the big gate holds only 14 horses. To Hansen's right and Gemologist's left, they'll have more room than the others when they break. They also load into the gate much later than the favorites, which is an advantage as well.

With Trinniberg, the expected pacesetter, breaking from post No. 9, Gemologist will be well short of the madness in the early going. Castellano will have the opportunity to let everything fall into place in front of him while setting up where he pleases for the first few furlongs.

Even better is that Hansen, who has the speed to run with, or just off Trinninberg, breaks from inside Gemologist, leaving him unscathed should the white horse want to run early.

By the time Castellano wants the undefeated Gem to make his move, he should be exactly where he needs to be. Favorites such as Union Rags and Bodemeister won't have that luxury breaking from the fourth and sixth post, respectively.

In what is essentially a wide-open field at Churchill Downs today, Gemologist out of 15th post has the best chance to win.