Kentucky Derby 2012: Trinniberg and Long Shots to Avoid at All Costs

This year’s Kentucky Derby field is filled with parity, maybe more than any year in the past decade.

But that doesn’t mean you need to get carried away with the extreme long shots.

This year there are six horses that have the dubious 50/1 odds, and while that sort of payday can put a smile on anyone’s face, I’m here to ensure you don’t waste your time (and money) on the following horses.

(Odds courtesy of KentuckyDerby.Info)

Trinniberg

If this were a shorter course, his odds would be much better than 50/1. Trinniberg has led in all seven of his races at some point as one of the best starters in recent memory.

The big problem is endurance. After posting a first quarter mile of 20.8 seconds at the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint, he ended up losing by 13.5 lengths. How will he fare at the Derby’s 1.25 mile distance?

Don’t bother trying to find out.

Liaison

2012 has been a disaster for this guy.

In his first start of the year at G2-Robert Lewis Stakes, Liaison clipped heels with another horse and jockey Rafael Bejarano went flying. At San Felipe he was blown away by Bodemeister and Creative Cause and then lost by nine lengths at G1-Santa Anita Derby.

It’s hard to look past the fact this horse is winless since December and doesn’t have a standout trait to set him apart from the rest of the field.

Done Talking

Done Talking’s track record is not impressive.

A win at the G2-Illinois Derby at Hawthrone got him in the race, but it was against weak competition. When racing against some of the top horses he’ll see today, Done Talking was blown away.

His late running style is not going to save him in this one.

Stay away. 

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