Kentucky Derby Odds 2012: Why Prospective and Sabercat Are Great Gambles

When are having 30-1 odds a good thing?

When you’re playing a card game, it stinks. When you are rolling the roulette table, it’s awful. And even when you are in a lottery, it’s not great.

But 30-1 odds on a horse are a different ballgame when you are informed about the conditions of the track and history of the colt.

This year, there are currently three horses with those longshot odds, but only two of them should be considered. Here’s why.


Prospective

A 13th place finish at the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in Churchill Downs last fall really killed the momentum for oddsmakers, but this horse has only gotten stronger since that ghastly performance.

Trainer Mark Casse says that the colt will have a far different experience because the strip of track is far different in the spring then in the fall.  Considering Casse has been one of the leading trainers at Churchill during his career, he isn’t just trying to talk up his horse.

Now that the tightness which comes with the fall is over and the dirt of the spring makes the track looser, the outcome is going to be different this time around.

One of the best attributes of Prospective is his calm demeanor. At the Blue Grass Stakes, Prospective fell asleep in front of the 40,000 screaming fans before the race. When you considered how many hot-headed entries are in this year’s field, how a horse reacts in front of 140,000 or more fans is extremely important. Saving their energy for the race is essential.

As Casse puts it, “he’s cool as a cucumber.” And that's something you can’t underestimate.

With a favorable post position draw of 12th, this is a horse with the potential to shock the racing world.

Sabercat

The million dollar win at G-3-Delta Jackpot got Sabercat here, but struggles at the Rebel and Arkansas Derby really knocked Sabercat back to the rear end in the eyes of the oddsmakers.

This is a horse that stays with the pack before making a late run, a technique that could prove to be incredibly effective with a field that is so evenly matched.

With some of the best endurance in the field, at 30-1 this is a great horse to ride at such long odds. 

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