Kentucky Derby Odds 2012: Smart Moves for Your Betting Money

The 2012 Kentucky Derby features one of the most talented fields Churchill Downs has ever seen, and with so many options to choose from, these are the smart bets for the 138th running of the event.

This year's race is not quite as wide open as last year's Kentucky Derby, when literally any horse could win. However, roughly a dozen horses have a true chance to win the first leg of the Triple Crown in 2012.

Bodemeister and Gemologist topped my power rankings of every horse in the field, but they are not the only horses worth betting on. In fact, neither of them makes this list because the odds for them are unfavorable compared to the chances of other horses winning.

This list is for the top horses worth betting on, based on current odds compared to actual chances of placing in the top three.

Because this year's field is so talented, the door is open for many horses, but the odds don't reflect that. These are the smartest moves for your money during the 2012 Kentucky Derby based on a good chance to show and a favorable line.

Creative Cause +1200

Creative Cause is not terribly high in most power rankings, and his line is shockingly favorable. He won, placed or showed in all seven of his prep races.

In his two races against Grade I competition, he completed a huge comeback to win the Norfolk and lost the Santa Anita Derby by a nose.

Creative Cause has been constantly improving, and he looks like one of the biggest contenders to win the 2012 Kentucky Derby. His current line is highly generous, and one of the best bets you can make would be to jump on this line before it changes.

Hansen +1000

When betting on Hansen, you are essentially betting on him to find a way to to stalk, and if he can, he stands a great chance of winning.

Hansen won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, which greatly resembles the Kentucky Derby and also takes place at Churchill Downs. While he struggled at the Blue Grass Stakes, that was because he burned out due to a fast start, and you can bet that jockey Ramon Dominguez will be sure to avoid that this time around.

Hansen is an interesting option, and the gamble you take here is solely on his post position. This line is guaranteed to change later, but it is unclear if it will drop or balloon.

Alpha +1500

Alpha is arguably the most talented horse in the field, and if he can get a good start, he should win the Kentucky Derby. I know that's a big statement, but Alpha is so freakishly fast and has such good stamina that a good start is all he needs.

However, he has not had many good starts. He had slow starts at the Wood, the Count Fleet and the Breeders' Cup, and tripped at the Wood as well.

Alpha is an interesting pick because the potential to win it all is there, but the potential for a bad loss is there as well.

This is definitely the riskiest option I'm giving you, but the line for Alpha is very high compared to his talent. If he gets out of the gate quickly, this is easy money...but that's a big "if."

I'll Have Another +1200

I'll Have Another is one of the most consistent horses in the field. He has had only one bad race in his career, and that was a sixth-place finish at Saratoga.

This is probably the best option I am giving you in terms of low risk/high reward, because this line is inflated due to his recent bad race, which has clearly scared off more than a few experts.

One bad race is nothing, and you can expect I'll Have Another to have another great finish at Churchill Downs.

Another positive is that this is actually a safer bet if the track becomes wet and sloppy because he has trained in the rain before and done very well.

If you're going to bet on this year's Kentucky Derby, I'll Have Another is the way to go.

*All lines courtesy of My Sports Book.

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