Kentucky Derby 2012: Went the Day Well and Long Shots to Consider

The best feeling a handicapper (or causal gambler) could ever have is nailing down the long shot pick at the Kentucky Derby.

I’m not going to sit here and pretend to know some scientific formula that will lead you to glory, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t a few characteristics that can give us clues as to who will perform well at the biggest event of their life, and who will fold under the pressure.

Here are two long shots to keep an eye on as race day at Churchill Downs inches closer.

(Click here for latest odds and post position)

Went the Day Well: 20:1

Went the Day Well is coming in hot after crushing the competition at the G3-Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park in Kentucky.

The big knock on Went the Day Well is his lack of experience against this level of competition, which is why his odds aren’t great. Yet it’s not like the horse isn’t capable of beating the best horses, he just hasn’t been given the opportunity yet.

The lightly raced colt certainly has the stamina to endure the distance of the derby, and the speed as well. What makes this a great pick is that the horse is trained by Graham Motion and owned by Team Valor Intentional.  This is the same duo that was responsible for Animal Kingdom’s win in the 2011 Kentucky Derby.

If the field stays dry, this is an outstanding pick.

El Padrino: 20:1

This horse exploded onto the scene in January when he wowed fans with a dominant performance at Gulfstream Park. He followed that up with another win in the G-2 Risen Star at the Fair Grounds. The racing world was a buzz.

Then he registered a less than stellar race at the G-1-Florida Derby, and the interest in El Padrino began to cool.

With the two wins coming on a wet track, there is no doubt he is the underdog to ride if the rain begins to fall in Louisville.

Make sure to check the forecast throughout the day on Saturday and pick one of these underdogs depending on the conditions of the track.  

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