Kentucky Derby 2012 Post Positions: Best Possible Slots for Top Contenders

With the 2012 Kentucky Derby on Saturday, we will see the best of American horse racing this weekend. I will trying to predict which horse will be the fastest. In doing that, it's always good look at the numbers.


Position 10

The numbers show that whoever starts at No. 10 has the best chance of winning. In the past thirty-five years, the horse in the No. 10 position has the highest percentage win rate at 17 percent.

Kentucky Derby’s data shows that from 1900 until 2005, a winner started at No. 10 exactly 10 times, which is the second highest, behind No. 1 and No. 5, who are tied at 12 wins each. 

With 35 percent of wins/places/shows, I’ll be paying attention to whoever starts at the tenth post for the “most exciting two minutes in sports.”


Positions 4 and 5

Statistics show that posts No. 1 and No. 5 have the same number of wins—12. I think whoever starts at post No. 1 will be doomed because the other 19 horses will lock him unless he starts really fast and takes the lead in the first seconds. However, I think that's unlikely. 

According to the graph, it looks like it’s better to start somewhere between position 5 and 10, as the win percentages are between 11 and 16 percent.

I’ll go with Gate 5, which has had 12 total wins, or Gate 4, which has 10 total wins.


Positions 11, 12 and 13

I wouldn’t underestimate the positions between No. 10 and No. 15 either. Last year, Animal Kingdom and jockey John Velazquez had won the Kentucky Derby. Mucho Macho Man, starting at 13, was third. The following three horses that finished the race started at 11, 12 and 14 gates.

The field at the Kentucky Derby is huge. Therefore, the further out a horse is running, the worse off he or she is. It’s also likely that the horse starting at positions No. 1, No. 2, No. 18, No. 19, or No. 20 will be blocked by the other horses. I am not surprised that the gate at the exact middle has the best win rate since 1975, when the Derby was limited to 20 horses.

As the horses that start further out need to run the largest distance to reach the finish line, it’s not surprising that only one horse in the No. 20 position has won the Derby since 1900.