Kentucky Derby 2012: Union Rags Should Be Favorite to Win It All

While the odds have yet to be announced for the 138th running of the Kentucky Derby, Union Rags could very well be the favorite when all is said and done on Wednesday.

Though the field is wide open as it stands, the consensus for the favorite seems to come down to three horses—Union Rags, Gemologist and Creative Cause—and Union Rags is one of the better picks, despite his third-place finish in the Florida Derby.

He came in second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and in first in the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park, and his overall 4-2 record suggests he has another one in him. It could come on Saturday at Churchill Downs.

Union Rags was considered the runaway favorite to be the favorite in the Kentucky Derby before the Florida Derby, but now there are doubts. However, there's no other horse that has been good enough to officially seize his momentum.

To win, however, he'll need to be at his best. Back on April 23, Union Rags still sat atop the AP's Run to the Roses' Top 10 ranking of contenders, even after his stumble in the Florida Derby.

Despite doubt that his best is good enough after Florida, Churchill Downs oddsmaker Mike Battaglia thinks a win is possible—though more of a long shot than it was before. In late April, Battaglia told the Associated Press: 

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"If he has an exceptional work next week [on April 27], he could wind up the favorite. But in two losses, they made excuses for him. If he's as good as everybody says, he would have been able to overcome that bad trip [in the Florida Derby]."

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A couple of weeks ago, Union Rags showed a little bit of what he can do when he ran four furlongs in 47.4 seconds at Keeneland. His trainer, Michael Matz, took a tough-love attitude, telling the AP the colt would have to do better at Churchill Downs.

Maybe Union Rags is just saving his best for last, and we'll see it on Saturday.