Kentucky Derby Odds 2012: Why You Shouldn't Make a Play Until After the Draw

The 2012 Kentucky Derby will feature a number of horses that have a real chance of winning the first Triple Crown event of the season.

With so many good options, plus a history of unpredictable outcomes, it is wise to wait before placing a bet and picking winners.

The best possible time to get your bet in would be right after post positions are drawn. Keep reading to find out why.

Post Position Matters—A Lot

If you look at the history of the event, a lot of winners come from certain spots on the starting gate, while others have a complete lack of them.

From 1900 until 2005, the Kentucky Derby’s official website tallied up Run for the Roses victors and where they started—and the results are shocking.

Of those 105 victors, only one started in the No. 20 stall, none from the No. 19, one from the No. 18, and none from No. 17.

On the other hand, No. 1 and No. 5 have been the starting location for 12 winners apiece.

This just shows that it’s just too hard for even the best horses to escape the rail and those who are off of it have a much better shot of winning.

The odds will reflect that almost immediately after the draw takes place but it may still be possible to get a good bet in if you find who is away from the rail and hit the book instantly.

Recent Trend of Long Shots Winning

Even if you have a really good feeling about a horse, it’s still worthwhile to place a few units of currency down on some horses with ridiculous odds.

After all, the last few winners of the Derby have been anything but heavy favorites.

The last three champions were Animal Kingdom (21-1), Super Saver (8-1) and Mine That Bird (a whopping 50-1).

Take a risk and play a few long shots once the odds settle in after the draw, it will likely pay dividends if this trend continues.