Kentucky Derby Odds 2012: Historical Odds Make Bodemeister a Risky Bet

Bodemeister won't see any odds lower than 4-1 once Churchill Downs oddsmaker Mike Battaglia releases them after post positions are drawn on Wednesday.

But history suggests the odds are far longer than that. From Tom Pedulla of USA TODAY:

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Bodemeister will try to overcome an enormous amount of history. No Derby victor was unraced at 2 since Apollo in 1882. The only horses in recent years to come close to outrunning their inexperience were Strodes Creek (second, 1994) and Curlin (third, 2007).

"It will come into play," Battaglia said of the history that seemingly works against Bodemeister, who is trained by Hall of Famer Bob Baffert. "Everybody knows that statistic. He is so lightly raced, and they've asked him to do a lot in a short period of time."

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Bodemeister became one of the Derby's favorites after he kicked serious butt at the Arkansas Derby, winning by 9.5 lengths.

But 130 years of history working against you is a tall order.

For Bodemeister, the key will be to get out of the pack early with a strong start, kick it into high gear and let the pack try to catch him. He'll be in trouble if he gets swallowed by the pack, and endurance could be a factor.

But Bodemeister certainly has the speed to outrun the field, there's no questioning that..

Whether or not he also has the speed to outrun 130 years of history, however, is the real question.

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