Kentucky Derby Odds: Favorites You Must Avoid

As we get closer to the 2012 Kentucky Derby, the field looks the strongest it has been in quite a few years, and for the most part, evenly matched. But while some favorites look extremely good when you look at their records, there are questions surrounding the horses. So here are some of the horses you need to avoid come May 5.

All odds come from http://www.kentuckyderby.info/kentuckyderby-odds.php

Bodemeister

Bodemeister is sitting at 9/2 right now, and he deserves it after his dominating win in the G1 Arkansas Derby. But just like two-time Horse of the Year Curlin, “Bode” is lightly raced with just four races and only two stakes starts.

Bodemeister has a big chance to do big things, but his light schedule will be a big disadvantage, especially with more experienced horses in the race.

Dullahan

Dullahan has the bloodlines and the record to be a contender in this race. His half brother Mine That Bird won the Kentucky Derby in 2009, and Dullahan was fourth in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

But there is a big question mark around the horse’s ability to win away from Keeneland. The horse has done pretty well away from the track, placing at Gulfstream and Saratoga in two graded stakes on the turf. While his fourth place finish behind last year’s three best two-year-olds looks good, it should be noted that the colt was five lengths behind the trio.

Dullahan is currently at 8/1 odds, but his form carrying from turf-like surfaces to dirt, even with his Juvenile result, makes him one to think hard about on Derby day.

Hansen

Even though Hansen is currently at 14/1 odds on the Kentucky Derby website, as the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner and with his race record his odds will probably be much lower come Derby day. However, his questionable ability to go longer distances is a major issue.

The colt showed the ability to rate in his G3 Gotham Stakes win, but he hasn’t shown that he can rate when everything doesn’t go his way. In a 20-horse field, the temperamental Tapit son will probably be wound up due to the atmosphere at Churchill Downs, which really won't help his case.

Alpha

While Alpha showed talent a few weeks ago fighting Gemologist down the stretch in the G1 Wood Memorial to finish second, the horse is a question mark.

Before settling on the Wood, the colt was supposed to go to multiple other preps depending on who ran but when Hansen moved on to the Blue Grass. While this could have been done just to get him the extra graded stakes earnings, it doesn't give much confidence in the horse.

Between this and his gate issues the last time he was at Churchill Downs, even though it seems to have subsided this year, Alpha is a wild card. The colt may be worth a bet at longer odds, but not at the low odds that he will probably be at going into the Derby after his second place in the Wood Memorial.