College Hoops Picks Jan. 28, 2009: South Florida Bulls @ Louisville Cardinals

South Florida Bulls @ Louisville Cardinals

Wednesday, Jan. 28—7:00 PM EST

Preview

Louisville (No. 7 AP, No. 7 Coaches, 6-0, 15-3) has come back in a big way during conference play after disappointing non-conference results. After being ranked third in the preseason polls, the Cardinals dropped to the 20s after a couple of disappointing losses, but now find themselves back in the top 10. They have impressed the college hoops nation with wins over four ranked Big East opponents, including then top-ranked Pittsburgh.

The key to the Cardinals' success lies with three players: Earl Clark (G/F, 14.1 PPG, 9.1 RPG), Terrence Williams (F, 13.5 PPG, 9.3 RPG), and Samardo Samuels (F, 13.3 PPG, 5.8 RPG)—most notably Samuels. As the preseason co-Big East Rookie of the Year has developed and found his stride, so have the Cardinals.

South Florida (2-5, 7-12) has not been as fortunate this season—after disappointing results in non-conference play, they have mustered up only two wins in conference play (both against Big East winless DePaul).

The Bulls, while not very deep, do not have an absolute lack of talent—sophomore Dominique Jones (G, 18.4 PPG, .340 3P%, 4.8 RPG, 4.1 APG) is a scoring machine and dangerous from just about anywhere on the floor. He has help from Jesus Verdejo (G, 14.1 PPG, 3.4 RPG) and Augustus Gilchrist (10.8 PPG, 5.0 RPG), but there is not a lot of other talent to help fill in after that (especially after the rest of the starting lineup).

This will be the second time this season that these two have faced off—the first saw Louisville win by 14 on the road (they were up by 20 with 1:30 left before the Bulls starting hacking).

Stats

	Record	Conf	ATS	RPI	SOS	PF	PA
South Florida	7-12	2-5	11-7	154	31	62.4	64.1
Louisville	15-3	6-0	10-7	9	11	74.7	60.5

	FG%	D. FG%	3P%	D. 3P%	FT%	RPG	SPG	APG	TPG
South Florida	40.9	41.3	31.8	30.4	59.9	39.9	5.6	12.2	13.3
Louisville	43.2	38.0	33.3	31.1	66.0	43.2	9.0	16.4	13.5

Prediction

Current Line: Louisville -18.0

South Florida ATS: 11-7, 7-3 when underdog
Louisville ATS: 10-7, 8-6 when favored

As I said above in the preview, this is the second time these two teams have faced each other this season. The Cardinals won by 14, but what's important is that the spread in that game had Louisville favored by only 10.5. 18 is a big spread to cover—too much in my mind—especially considering the Cardinals' largest margin of victory during conference play is 19 (and it came against Rutgers).

Pick: South Florida +18.0

*All statistics for this article have come from StatSheet.com*

*This article is also featured on CFBPlace.com—and soon to be featured on CBBPlace.com*