Todd McShay 2012 NFL Mock Draft: Biggest Shockers in Analyst's Final Projection

We're mere hours away from the start of the first round of the 2012 NFL draft. And that, of course, means there's only a few hours left for the draft experts to pretend like they know what's going to happen.

ESPN has two such experts: ancient and wise guru Mel Kiper, Jr. and young go-getter Todd McShay. In preparation for tonight's first round, McShay released one last mock draft on ESPN.com (Insider access required).

It's not too different from McShay's past mocks, but there are a few notable surprises contained within. There are five projections in particular that caught me off guard.

Here's the rundown.

Philadelphia Eagles draft DT Fletcher Cox at No. 15

In recent weeks, it's been pounded into our heads by McShay and other experts that Fletcher Cox was a lock to be the first defensive tackle taken in the first round.

Not so fast. Cox doesn't come off the board until No. 15 in McShay's final mock, joining the Philadelphia Eagles.

It's not a huge shock that the Eagles would draft Cox. If he's available when they're on the clock, they'll definitely give him a look. The bigger shock is that Cox comes off the board after fellow DTs Dontari Poe and Michael Brockers in McShay's mock. 

Cox ranks higher than both of them on McShay's final big board, so this has to be a case of him responding to buzz that he's hearing. Either that, or it's a case of him being inconsistent, maybe even foolish.

Kansas City Chiefs draft S Mark Barron at No. 11

If you were to take a look at various mocks that were published in recent weeks, you'd see the Kansas City Chiefs linked to standouts like Poe and Luke Kuechly, who could both fill areas of need in Kansas City.

I don't recall seeing the Chiefs linked to Mark Barron. No doubt this has a lot to do with how quickly Barron has risen in recent days.

Safety is not a huge area of need in Kansas City, but that doesn't mean the Chiefs wouldn't take Barron if they had the chance. In McShay's mock, both Poe and Kuechly are off the board by the time the Chiefs are on the clock. In that scenario there won't be many options better than Barron.

If the Chiefs were to draft Barron, they'd be able to pair him with Eric Berry to form an outstanding safety duo. The pick therefore isn't surprising because it's a bad pick. It's surprising because it's a clever pick that probably should have been mocked a lot sooner, by McShay or whoever. 

Houston Texans draft TE Coby Fleener at No. 26

The Texans are a team with very few glaring needs, but you've typically seen them linked to speedy wide receivers like Kendall Wright and Stephen Hill in most mocks. In fact, McShay had the Texans taking Hill in his last mock, and Kiper still has the Texans taking Hill in his most recent mock.

The notion that the Texans would pass on Hill to take Coby Fleener instead is intriguing. When you look at the Texans, tight end doesn't stand out as a huge need. It's certainly worth noting that tight end Owen Daniels led the team in receiving in 2011.

This doesn't mean the Texans wouldn't take Fleener, an athletic pass-catcher who fits the mold set down by Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski. Athletic tight ends are in demand and the Texans could easily conclude they could do a lot of damage with Fleener in their offense.

However, I'm not sold that they couldn't do just as much damage with Hill in their offense. I'll be surprised if the Texans take Fleener.

Denver Broncos draft RB Doug Martin at No. 25

In the months and weeks leading up to the draft, the general consensus has been that the Broncos would look to address their defense with the No. 25 pick. Most mocks had them going for either a defensive tackle or a cornerback.

McShay apparently thinks they need more offense, and apparently that Doug Martin would fit in well alongside Peyton Manning.

He has a point. The Broncos got a great season from Willis McGahee in 2011, but the odds of that happening again are slim. Running back depth is an area of need.

Nevertheless, it will be a surprise if Martin goes in the first round, especially when there will be DTs and CBs still available for Denver. If the Broncos decide they want Martin, I'd expect them to trade down and pick him later.

Jacksonville Jaguars draft DE Whitney Mercilus at No. 7

Now this is a shocker.

Whitney Mercilus barely made the cut on McShay's final big board, checking in at No. 32. McShay has three other defensive ends ranked ahead of him.

Yet he has Mercilus going No. 7 overall to the Jaguars, ahead of every other defensive end in the 2012 draft class.

I can definitely see the Jags going for a DE with the No. 7 pick, but the fact that McShay has them going for Mercilus must mean he knows something we don't. There's no way this is totally random.

We'll find out soon enough.