What If the Colts Drafted Ryan Leaf?

With the first pick of the 1998 NFL draft, the Indianapolis Colts selected Peyton Manning. With the second pick of the 1998 NFL draft, the San Diego Chargers selected Ryan Leaf.

Manning is one of the greatest quarterbacks of all-time and possibly the greatest regular season quarterback ever.

Leaf is the most notorious draft bust in NFL history. He is basically the definition and template for a draft bust.

The 2012 NFL draft is upon us and for the first time since 1999, the first two picks will be quarterbacks. The Colts are expected to pick Andrew Luck, leaving the Washington Redskins to take Robert Griffin III.

There has been some speculation of who really is the best choice for the Colts, as they have the first pick in the draft once again.

That has propelled me to look back on the 1998 draft and think about what would have been different if the Colts had chosen Leaf with the first overall pick and the Chargers selected Manning.

Here is a look at several different things that could have happened, had the Colts used their first pick on Leaf.

What Really Happened

Here is a quick overview of what actually happened.

Peyton Manning started all 16 games in his rookie season. He struggled in comparison to a typical Manning season and the Colts had a 3-13 record. Manning threw for 3,749 yards, 26 touchdowns and 28 interceptions in his first season.

Ryan Leaf started nine games in his rookie season and immediately looked like a bust. The Chargers were 3-6 in those games that Leaf started and ended the season with a 5-11 record.

He threw only two touchdowns and 15 interceptions. Leaf had a completion percentage of 45.3 percent, which is even worse than Tim Tebow's 46.5 percent last season.

Manning has gone on to appear in two Super Bowls, winning one of them. He is a first-ballot Hall of Famer. His has thrown for 54,828 passing yards and counting. He has 399 passing touchdowns and 198 interceptions in his career.

Leaf played two seasons with the Chargers and one season with the Dallas Cowboys. After three seasons and 21 NFL starts, he was out of the league. Leaf compiled just 14 career touchdown passes to his 36 interceptions and 3,666 total passing yards.

The Colts became one of the most consistently successful franchises since Manning became their quarterback. With Manning under center, the Colts have been 141-67. That is an average of an 11-5 record a season. 

Manning and the Colts have recently went their separate ways. Manning is now the quarterback of the Denver Broncos and the Colts are hoping they have the next "Peyton Manning" in Andrew Luck.

The Chargers went on to draft Drew Brees in the second round of the 2001 draft. Then, they drafted Eli Manning in the 2004 NFL draft and immediately traded him to the New York Giants for Philip Rivers. Rivers took over as quarterback of the Chargers in 2005 and remains in that position. Brees moved on to the New Orleans Saints. He has become a hero and Super Bowl champion.

Leaf has had several legal issues and recently was arrested on charges of stealing prescription drugs and burglary.

That being said, here we go! Let's look at how the NFL would have been different if the Colts had taken Leaf.

Ryan Leaf Wouldn't Have Been a Bust

We will start it off with the biggest reach if the Colts had selected Ryan Leaf. 

Leaf needed time to develop, but the Chargers decided not to bring in a starting quarterback for him to learn under. He was immediately thrown into the fire and struggled right out of the gate. In his first five starts, Leaf threw one touchdown and nine interceptions.

As bad as Leaf was, he did not have a strong running back or quality wide receivers to help him on offense. His head coach was Kevin Gilbride, who was only in his second season as a head coach and would never be a head coach after the 1998 season.

Manning was surrounded with talented players in his rookie season. The Colts had Hall of Fame running back Marshall Faulk and future Hall of Fame wide receiver Marvin Harrison, helping Manning on offense.

Manning also had Jim Mora as their head coach. Mora was the head coach of the Saints for 11 seasons before the 1998 season.

If Leaf had been thrown into the same situation as Manning, he may have gotten off to a better start. This could have boosted his confidence and allowed him to become a decent or even mediocre quarterback.

Peyton Manning Doesn't Become Peyton Manning

As mentioned, the Chargers were not a great team when Ryan Leaf joined them in 1998. 

The difference in talent on the team could have caused Manning to struggle. He probably wouldn't have struggled as much as Leaf, but he could have seen a serious drop in his passing yards and touchdowns and an increase in his interceptions. 

The Chargers did not stick with Leaf for long. He was benched after struggling in his first nine games. He missed the entire 1999 season because of a shoulder injury. Leaf started nine games in 2000 but continued to struggle. His struggles and injuries caused the Chargers to release him after the 2000 season.

Manning threw for 3,749 yards, 26 touchdowns and 28 interceptions in his first season. In his first nine games, Manning had 12 passing touchdowns and 18 interceptions. In Leaf's first nine games, he threw two touchdowns and 15 interceptions.

With a team that was not as good, Manning could have tried to force more passes and struggled to get in a rhythm. If Manning started the first nine seasons with somewhere around eight touchdowns and 22 interceptions, it is possible that the Chargers would have turned to their backup. 

If Manning was benched, he may have lost confidence and not developed as quickly as he did. He also could have been bounced around different teams before finding a steady starting quarterback position.

While Manning probably would have been all right with whatever team he landed on, it is possible his legacy could have taken a hit, had he been drafted by the Chargers.

Drew Brees Would Be Somewhere Else

The Chargers selected Drew Brees in the 2001 draft. If they had Peyton Manning, it is likely that they would not have drafted Brees.

If Brees wasn't drafted by the Chargers, would he ever be a member of the New Orleans Saints?

Brees and the Chargers parted ways after the 2004 season because they couldn't agree on a new contract. The Chargers knew they had Philip Rivers waiting to play quarterback, so they low-balled Brees. That caused him to seek other offers and ultimately sign with the Saints.

The Dallas Cowboys and Oakland Raiders both drafted a quarterback in the second round, after Brees was selected by the Chargers in the 2001 draft.

If Brees was drafted by the Cowboys, Raiders or another team, he could possibly still be on that team today.

Chargers Would Have Won at Least One Super Bowl

Any team that has Peyton Manning in his prime on it has to be considered a favorite to win a Super Bowl.

Manning was able to lead the Colts to two Super Bowl appearances and one Super Bowl victory. The Colts made the playoffs in 10 out of the 13 seasons with Manning as their quarterback.

The Chargers have been a successful franchise in recent history, but have been disappointing in the postseason. Manning might have been the answer that got them over the hump and win some Super Bowls. 

One of the most intriguing things about Manning being on the Chargers throughout his career, would have been the chance to see him play with LaDainian Tomlinson. Tomlinson is one of the greatest running backs of all time because of his ability to run and catch the football. Manning would have had a field day with Tomlinson in the backfield.

It would have also been interesting to see Manning throw to guys like Antonio Gates and Vincent Jackson.

Where Would Brother Eli Be?

If the Chargers had Peyton Manning, they probably wouldn't have had the first pick in the 2004 draft. If they did, they probably wouldn't be drafting a quarterback. That could mean several different things for Eli Manning.

If the Chargers didn't have that first pick, they wouldn't have been able to draft Manning and trade him for Philip Rivers. 

If another team drafted Manning before the Giants, they may have decided to not trade him to them.

Manning could have fallen to the Giants at the fourth pick, but there also could have been a team that decided to trade up and acquire him. 

Had Ryan Leaf been drafted with the first overall pick in 1998, Eli Manning would most likely never been a New York Giant.

2012 Draft Would Be Totally Different

If Ryan Leaf had been drafted before Peyton Manning, the 2012 draft would look totally different.

The order could have been shaken up and the first two picks may not be used on quarterbacks like they will be.

The Colts have the first pick in this year's draft and will select Andrew Luck. The reason the Colts have the first pick is because of Manning's neck injuries and inability to play in 2011. The Colts were the worst team last season because Manning missed the entire season.

If Leaf had been drafted by the Colts, they would have tried to resolve their quarterback issues well before 2012. The Colts would have probably had the first pick in an early draft and possibly selected Michael Vick, Carson Palmer or even Eli Manning.

Had the Colts drafted Eli Manning, they wouldn't have the first pick in the 2012 draft and wouldn't be in search of a quarterback.

It is also possible that the Chargers would be in the same predicament as the Colts were in with the whole Manning and Luck situation. 

Whatever way it played out, it is extremely likely that Luck and Robert Griffin III would be drafted by different teams than they are going to be in this draft, if Leaf had been drafted by the Colts in 1998.