The Schwach Indicator: Jan. 27

This is the third week of the Schwach Indicator standings.  For those of you who missed the explanation of this new evaluation tool, here's a quick recap.

As the NCAA Tournament approaches every March, you start hearing college basketball experts talk a lot about top 50 and top 100 wins when discussing a team's possible seed or whether or not a school deserves to be in the Big Dance at all.

I think these two criteria are important as well, but they're not perfect. Why? Because not all top 100 wins are created equal. 

So I set out to create a more precise evaluation system in which teams aren't grouped by 50 or 100, but individually according to their RPI.

I enlisted the help of two friends: Brad Wachtel, Director of Operations at Hoop Group, a New Jersey-based company that organizes basketball camps and runs an NCAA preseason tournament; and Mike Sverdlov, a computer programmer for New York Life.

We came up with the following formula.

For each victory, a team receives the number of points equal to their opponent's RPI rank subtracted from 344. So if you beat the RPI's 144th-ranked team, you receive 200 points.  Beat them at a neutral site, and you multiply that number by 1.25. Beat them on the road and multiply the number by 1.5.

For each loss, a team receives a deduction of the exact number of points equal to their opponent's RPI rank. So you better not lose to the RPI's 300th ranked team, or you'll lose 300 points. Lose to the top team in the country? No sweat, you drop only one point. But lose at home, and that number is multiplied by 1.5.

This way teams are rewarded for beating better teams (especially on the road) and punished for losing to worse teams (especially at home). 

Without further ado, let's get to the rankings through action on Monday, Jan. 27.

1    Oklahoma    5295.50
2    Connecticut    5182.75
3    Duke    4992.75
4    Pittsburgh    4978.75
5    Xavier    4890.50
6    Michigan State    4634.25
7    North Carolina    4375.00
8    Butler    4319.50
9    Memphis    4186.75
10    Marquette    4068.75
11    Louisville    4010.00
12    Wake Forest    4005.25
13    Syracuse    3852.00
14    Clemson    3836.00
15    Illinois    3706.25
16    Arizona State    3624.75
17    West Virginia    3574.25
18    Minnesota    3563.00
19    Saint Mary's    3550.25
20    Siena    3515.50
21    Florida State    3499.50
22    California    3484.00
23    Dayton    3315.50
24    UNLV    3313.50
25    Washington    3232.00
26    Villanova    3217.50
27    Purdue    3158.75
28    UCLA    3158.50
29    Texas    3084.00
30    Kentucky    3082.00
31    Missouri    3059.50
32    Florida    3053.50
33    Virginia Tech    2992.50
34    Brigham Young    2912.50
35    Ohio State    2908.75
36    Tennessee    2850.25
37    Georgetown    2847.50
38    Gonzaga    2790.75
39    Utah State    2782.00
40    Davidson    2770.75
41    Kansas    2705.50
42    Wisconsin    2647.75
43    Illinois State    2610.25
44    Penn State    2573.75
45    Boston College    2535.75
46    Oklahoma State    2458.25
47    Miami (FL)    2445.50
48    Utah    2436.75
49    Creighton    2432.25
50    Baylor    2418.25
51    USC    2395.00
52    Virginia Commonwealth    2357.25
53    Texas A&M    2324.25
54    Michigan    2301.75
55    Niagara    2187.25
56    Northern Iowa    2174.25
57    Northeastern    2173.00
58    Stanford    2171.00
59    Mississippi State    2147.50
60    UAB    2108.75
61    Providence    2107.25
62    Buffalo    2091.25
63    Temple    2055.25
64    Wisconsin-Green Bay    2052.00
65    Tulsa    2049.25
66    South Carolina    2019.00
67    Drake    1998.50
68    George Mason    1981.50
69    Cincinnati    1954.00
70    Maryland    1954.00
71    LSU    1921.00
72    Miami (OH)    1876.75
73    Saint Joseph's    1825.75
74    Rhode Island    1771.50
75    New Mexico    1761.00
76    Arizona    1728.00
77    Notre Dame    1713.50
78    Northwestern    1697.50
79    Houston    1644.25
80    Boise State    1626.50
81    Iowa    1594.50
82    San Diego    1570.25
83    TCU    1570.25
84    Washington State    1519.50
85    Bradley    1474.50
86    UCF    1463.75
87    Arkansas    1454.00
88    San Diego State    1435.50
89    Vanderbilt    1430.25
90    Hofstra    1426.50
91    La Salle    1367.25
92    Wright State    1356.50
93    Duquesne    1337.50
94    UTEP    1328.25
95    Arkansas-Little Rock    1251.00
96    Nebraska    1243.50
97    Drexel    1241.00
98    Western Kentucky    1240.50
99    Virginia Military    1234.50
100    Auburn    1214.50
101    Evansville    1204.50
102    Vermont    1176.25
103    Kansas State    1172.50
104    Fairfield    1165.50
105    Nevada    1126.50
106    Texas Tech    1120.00
107    Southern Miss    1113.75
108    Cleveland State    1104.50
109    Milwaukee    1098.25
110    Ohio    1082.00
111    Charleston    1075.75
112    Iowa State    1049.50
113    James Madison    1008.50
114    St. John's    1005.00
115    Cornell    942.00
116    Wyoming    891.00
117    Portland State    886.75
118    Alabama    858.75
119    North Carolina State    828.50
120    Stephen F. Austin    810.25
121    Mississippi    808.00
122    East Tennessee State    788.50
123    St. Bonaventure    724.50
124    Rider    717.50
125    Portland    695.50
126    Seton Hall    690.75
127    Richmond    676.50
128    North Dakota State    661.50
129    Akron    654.00
130    Oakland    606.25
131    American University    596.00
132    Virginia    582.50
133    Loyola (IL)    562.50
134    Long Beach State    525.50
135    Navy    505.50
136    Robert Morris    497.50
137    Iona    495.75
138    Middle Tennessee State    494.50
139    Albany    475.50
140    Arkansas State    466.00
141    North Texas    427.00
142    Southern Illinois    379.50
143    Weber State    372.50
144    Oral Roberts    345.25
145    Missouri State    335.00
146    Belmont    332.00
147    Tennessee-Martin    328.25
148    South Florida    315.00
149    Illinois-Chicago    271.50
150    Georgia Tech    269.50
151    Bowling Green    262.75
152    Old Dominion    236.00
153    Saint Louis    209.25
154    Liberty    185.75
155    Wichita State    173.25
156    Mount St. Mary's    159.00
157    Texas A&M-CC    142.75
158    Marshall    137.50
159    Pacific    135.50
160    Rutgers    115.50
161    Binghamton    112.00
162    Oregon State    103.50
163    Oregon    89.25
164    Georgia Southern    88.50
165    Lamar    86.00
166    Manhattan    61.50
167    South Alabama    44.50
168    Austin Peay    44.00
169    Loyola (MD)    -7.00
170    DePaul    -26.00
171    Jacksonville    -29.50
172    Morehead State    -40.75
173    Georgia    -100.00
174    East Carolina    -101.00
175    Massachusetts    -121.50
176    Boston University    -153.00
177    Texas-San Antonio    -210.00
178    Wofford    -226.25
179    Troy    -239.00
180    Montana State    -264.00
181    Colorado State    -311.25
182    Kent State    -329.00
183    Charlotte    -335.50
184    San Francisco    -347.50
185    Chattanooga    -369.50
186    Morgan State    -378.00
187    Lehigh    -398.00
188    Ball State    -421.50
189    Murray State    -438.00
190    Texas-Arlington    -452.50
191    New Mexico State    -462.00
192    Eastern Kentucky    -484.00
193    Idaho    -489.50
194    San Jose State    -504.50
195    UC Riverside    -509.50
196    Hampton    -525.00
197    Holy Cross    -527.50
198    Indiana    -528.00
199    Harvard    -571.00
200    Radford    -590.50
201    Sam Houston State    -605.00
202    Montana    -629.00
203    Mercer    -650.00
204    Santa Clara    -660.50
205    Delaware    -691.50
206    George Washington    -697.00
207    Colorado    -700.25
208    Citadel    -737.00
209    Central Arkansas    -750.25
210    Stony Brook    -765.00
211    Western Carolina    -767.00
212    Cal State Fullerton    -771.75
213    Louisiana Tech    -785.00
214    North Carolina-Asheville    -790.50
215    Hawaii    -807.50
216    Air Force    -808.75
217    Tulane    -819.75
218    Presbyterian    -840.50
219    Gardner-Webb    -852.50
220    Western Michigan    -862.00
221    Samford    -875.00
222    Rice    -906.00
223    Pennsylvania    -906.50
224    UC Santa Barbara    -911.00
225    Central Connecticut State    -924.50
226    Alabama State    -938.50
227    Nicholls State    -942.50
228    Canisius    -951.50
229    Yale    -955.00
230    Idaho State    -973.00
231    IUPUI    -978.00
232    Cal State Northridge    -985.50
233    UC Davis    -1004.50
234    Appalachian State    -1032.50
235    Longwood    -1034.50
236    Eastern Washington    -1051.00
237    New Orleans    -1069.00
238    Bethune-Cookman    -1083.50
239    Fresno State    -1121.75
240    UMBC    -1132.75
241    Marist    -1150.25
242    Centenary    -1166.25
243    Towson    -1172.50
244    Valparaiso    -1185.00
245    Florida International    -1216.00
246    Florida A&M    -1237.00
247    Brown    -1252.00
248    Utah Valley    -1264.00
249    Jacksonville State    -1266.50
250    Coastal Carolina    -1274.75
251    Tennessee Tech    -1281.50
252    Alabama A&M    -1299.50
253    Southeastern Louisiana    -1301.00
254    Southern Methodist    -1308.00
255    Arkansas-Pine Bluff    -1353.00
256    IPFW    -1356.00
257    Chicago State    -1356.50
258    Savannah State    -1375.50
259    Sacred Heart    -1376.50
260    Louisiana-Lafayette    -1382.50
261    Northwestern State    -1407.25
262    Long Island    -1446.50
263    McNeese State    -1489.00
264    Stetson    -1493.50
265    Denver    -1498.75
266    Princeton    -1529.50
267    William & Mary    -1531.75
268    Cal Poly    -1541.00
269    UC Irvine    -1544.50
270    Norfolk State    -1552.50
271    South Dakota State    -1590.50
272    Jackson State    -1591.00
273    Eastern Illinois    -1601.50
274    Youngstown State    -1612.50
275    New Hampshire    -1613.50
276    Northern Colorado    -1645.75
277    Bucknell    -1666.00
278    Indiana State    -1716.25
279    Coppin State    -1783.00
280    Texas State    -1797.00
281    Maine    -1799.25
282    UMKC    -1815.00
283    Winthrop    -1820.00
284    Detroit    -1824.50
285    Prairie View A&M    -1829.50
286    Hartford    -1848.00
287    Southern Utah    -1880.50
288    Elon    -1900.00
289    Lipscomb    -1905.00
290    Wagner    -1914.00
291    Columbia    -1928.25
292    North Carolina-Wilmington    -1966.50
293    Louisiana-Monroe    -1991.00
294    Lafayette    -2024.50
295    Campbell    -2046.00
296    North Carolina A&T    -2050.25
297    St. Francis (NY)    -2095.50
298    Tennessee State    -2105.50
299    Texas-Pan American    -2110.50
300    Northern Illinois    -2145.25
301    Quinnipiac    -2170.00
302    Delaware State    -2170.50
303    Toledo    -2188.50
304    Grambling State    -2205.50
305    St. Peter's    -2279.00
306    Florida Gulf Coast    -2281.50
307    Charleston Southern    -2312.50
308    Cal State Bakersfield    -2372.50
309    Georgia State    -2372.50
310    Central Michigan    -2390.00
311    Florida Atlantic    -2410.75
312    Northern Arizona    -2508.00
313    Fordham    -2511.00
314    Colgate    -2543.50
315    Maryland-Eastern Shore    -2640.50
316    USC Upstate    -2656.75
317    South Carolina State    -2662.50
318    Pepperdine    -2706.75
319    Kennesaw State    -2772.50
320    Howard    -2775.00
321    Western Illinois    -2794.25
322    Mississippi Valley State    -2826.50
323    St. Francis (PA)    -2859.00
324    Fairleigh Dickinson    -2925.50
325    Houston Baptist    -2942.50
326    Bryant University    -2984.75
327    Monmouth    -2988.50
328    Eastern Michigan    -3035.50
329    UNC Greensboro    -3064.50
330    Army    -3106.00
331    High Point    -3158.00
332    Loyola Marymount    -3185.00
333    Furman    -3242.50
334    Alcorn State    -3347.00
335    Dartmouth    -3371.00
336    Winston-Salem    -3438.00
337    North Florida    -3454.00
338    Southern University    -3500.50
339    Texas Southern    -3684.50
340    Southeast Missouri State    -3733.00
341    North Carolina Central    -4539.00
342    Sacramento State    -4647.00
343    N.J.I.T.    -4670.50