2012 NFL Mock Draft: 5 First-Round Predictions and Guarantees

There are very few guarantees when it comes to NFL rookies. So much is based on system, effort, environment and injuries.

For most prospects, all of these things must align properly for them to have a great season.

The fact is, that won't happen for most players. That said—what can we count on from the rookies coming in to the NFL this year?

I have five predictions and guarantees within a full first-round mock draft.

1. Indianapolis Colts: Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford

Luck will be the pick here for the Colts. The keys to the Indy car are his, and his development will dictate the organization's success level over the next five years.

It is unrealistic to expect Luck to have 40 TD passes and a QB rating of 100 or better. A practical expectation is to see consistent improvement from the first preseason game, to the final regular season game. 

If that happens, Colts' fans should be pleased.

First Prediction: Colts 2012 regular season record: 5-11

First Guarantee: Luck will throw for 3,250 yards and 20 TDs

2. Washington Redskins: Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor (via trade with St. Louis)

RG3 to the Redskins is almost as big of a foregone conclusion, as Luck to the Colts. If the Skins do take him, he isn't guaranteed to start from Day 1.

Rex Grossman had some success in 2011, and Mike Shanahan could lean towards Grossman—especially if they believe Griffin doesn't have as good a grasp of the offense.

This is the first big difference in Griffin's and Luck's situations.

There is no incumbent starter in Indy. If RG3 isn't named the starter for Week 1, it will obviously affect his production and impact.

That said—I can't imagine him not seeing the field as a starter in 2012.

Second Prediction: RG3 will be named the starter by Week 5

3. Minnesota Vikings: Matt Kalil, OT, USC

This should be the pick for the Vikings, but there have been recent discussions about Kalil, Justin Blackmon and Morris Claiborne going here.

4. Cleveland Browns: Trent Richardson, HB, Alabama

I would love to see the Browns trade down here or take Justin Blackmon. But something tells me, it'll be Trent Richardson.

While I believe Richardson will be a solid NFL player, I don't think he addresses their biggest need.

When the Browns had Peyton Hillis rush for 1,177 yards in 2010, they were 5-11. Richardson's rookie year will likely be in the same category. 

So while he'll shine individually, I don't think he takes the Browns to the next level.

Third Prediction: Browns'2012 regular season record: 6-10

Second Guarantee: Richardson will rush for 1,200 yards

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU

The Bucs need to select a top-flight CB with Aqib Talib's future uncertain. Claiborne would be an excellent choice.

6. St. Louis Rams: Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State

Blackmon could become Sam Bradford's go-to man if the Rams take him here. The Rams' offense needs a true No. 1 receiver.

7. Jacksonville Jaguars: Melvin Ingram, DE/OLB, South Carolina

The Jags could look for a receiver, but if Blackmon is off the board, they may not want to go with Malcolm Floyd this high. Ingram is a potentially dynamic pass-rusher and a solid pick.

8. Miami Dolphins: Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M

Tannehill shouldn't be a first-round pick, but because there is a shortage of franchise QBs, he'll likely be picked here.

He has the potential to become a solid QB, but I think the Dolphins would be better suited trading down.

It would benefit them most in the short- and long-term.

Third Guarantee: RG3 will take more snaps in 2012 than Tannehill

9. Carolina Panthers: Michael Brockers, DT, LSU

The Panthers must look at the defensive side of the ball with this pick. Brockers is a potentially disruptive force, and that would be ideal for the Panthers.

10. Buffalo Bills: Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa

The Bills' chief need is at LT. They must resist all temptation to look elsewhere.

11. Kansas City Chiefs: David DeCastro, G, Stanford

DeCastro is one of the surest bets in this draft. He is fundamentally sound and strong, and he has the perfect intangibles for the position.

Translation: He's nasty as hell.

If the Chiefs draft him, you can pencil him in on Sundays for the next five to seven years.

Fourth Guarantee: DeCastro will start all 16 games in the 2012 season.

12. Seattle Seahawks: Luke Kuechly, MLB, Boston College

Kuechly fills a need in the middle for the Seahawks. The defensive unit needs a leader, and Kuechly could be that guy.

13. Arizona Cardinals: Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame

The last time Larry Fitzgerald had a viable option with him at WR, the Cardinals went to the Super Bowl. Of course, they need to upgrade the QB position, but Floyd and Fitz would make anyone better.

14. Dallas Cowboys: Dontari Poe, NT, Memphis

Poe will be either a bust or a superstar, I don't believe there will be an in-between with him. If Dallas selects him and he makes an immediate impact, it would make the defense nasty

15. Philadelphia Eagles: Fletcher Cox, DT Mississippi State

Cox proved he was one of the best athletes at DT in the draft. His skill set is an exciting possibility in Philly.

16. New York Jets: Courtney Upshaw, OLB/DE Alabama

The Jets have two major needs: safety and a pass-rusher. I believe the need for a pass-rusher is the most pressing, so selecting Upshaw here makes the most sense.

17. Cincinnati Bengals: Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama

I'd still like to see the Bengals improve at the CB position. At this stage of the first round, Kirkpatrick is a solid pick.

18. San Diego Chargers: Nick Perry, DE/OLB, USC

If you buy into Perry's combine performance, he could have a Shawne Merriman effect on the Chargers.

19. Chicago Bears: Whitney Mercilus, DE/OLB, Illinois

Mercilus led the nation in sacks with 16 in 2011, and that is exactly the type of player the Bears are looking for.

Even if Mercilus isn't available or they go a different route, the Bears will be much improved this season.

Provided they don't lose Jay Cutler to injury again, they will challenge the Packers for the NFC North crown.

Adding Brandon Marshall and losing offensive coordinator Mike Martz will have a positive effect on this team.

Fourth Prediction: Bears 2012 record: 11-5

Fifth Guarantee: The Bears will make the playoffs

20. Tennessee Titans: Cordy Glenn, G, Georgia

This is a very safe pick for the Titans, but understandable. Trading down wouldn't be a bad idea here either, as there are no real difference-makers available for them here.

21. Cincinnati Bengals: Doug Martin, RB, Boise State

Martin is one of my favorite players in this draft. He's what I consider a solid size for a RB at 5'9", but over 200 pounds. He reminds me of Ray Rice in stature and style, and I think he'd be a great fit in Cincinnati.

Even if Martin doesn't go to Cincinnati, look for him to have a solid rookie season. He is a good blocker, very good runner and receiver out of the backfield.

Fifth Prediction: Martin will have at least 800 yards rushing and 300 yards receiving in 2012

22. Cleveland Browns: Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford

Jonathan Martin and Joe Thomas as bookend tackles would be great for the Browns.

23. Detroit Lions: Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina

After the Lions lost Eric Wright, I think it became imperative that they address the CB position in the first round. Gilmore is a solid and balanced prospect.

24. Pittsburgh Steelers: Dont'a Hightower, LB, Alabama

Hightower could replace Larry Foote in the Steelers' 3-4 scheme. If Hightower lasts this long, he will be one of the draft's biggest values. 

25. Denver Broncos: Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor

If the Broncos take Kendall Wright, it'll be exciting to see him work with Peyton Manning. He could also contribute in the return game.

26. Houston Texans: Stephen Hill, WR, Georgia Tech

Hill is the offensive equivalent to Dontari Poe. Both of them are freaks athletically, but didn't have highly productive collegiate careers. If he is what we saw at the NFL Combine, then he's a star.

27. New England Patriots: Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina

The Patriots could be the perfect environment to get Coples to maximize his enormous potential. He needs to be around veterans and a winning environment.

28. Green Bay Packers: Chase Minnifield, CB, Virginia

It's time to find Charles Woodson's eventual replacement. Minnifield is a marvelous athlete, and he would be a solid pick for the Packers.

29. Baltimore Ravens: Peter Konz, C, Wisconsin

Konz is the best center prospect in the draft, and with Matt Birk at 35 years old, Konz would be an excellent successor.  

30. San Francisco 49ers: Coby Fleener, TE, Stanford

Fleener and Vernon Davis could become the best TE tandem in the NFL. It would be a new wrinkle in the suddenly formidable and balanced 49ers offense.

31. New England Patriots: Alshon Jeffery, WR, South Carolina

Jeffery had a great pro day. If that wasn't enough to raise his stock, the Patriots would be smart to grab him.

32. New York Giants: David Wilson, RB, Virginia Tech

Not since Tiki Barber was a Giant have the G-Men had a home run threat in the backfield. Wilson would be just that for Eli Manning.

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