Cleveland Browns: If They Want Brandon Weeden, They'd Better Pick Him 22nd

In my latest first round mock draft, I projected the Browns to take Oklahoma State quarterback Brandon Weeden at No. 22, and it's becoming harder to picture anything else happening unless the Browns just aren't sold on him.

Going in the first round is a huge touchstone of potential success for a QB. Rotoworld's Evan Silva broke down the ugly picture of the second round QB track record:

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Favre was the 33rd overall pick in the 1991 draft. If you generously include Plummer and rush to crown Dalton, the NFL is 3-for-22 on second-round signal callers in the past 20 drafts.

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It's not like the first round is magic, but the reality is that if the "stuff that a starter is made of" is there, a team will commit a first-round pick to the player. If we look at quarterbacks drafted since 2000, more starters have come out of the 22 drafted in the first than the 91 drafted in the second to seventh rounds.

So, if the Browns have come to the conclusion in their evaluation that Weeden is indeed the quarterback to lead them, that should inspire a strong enough belief to spend the No. 22 pick they acquired from Atlanta last year on him

Of course, the Browns also have the No. 37 pick in the second round and could gamble that Weeden falls to them, which would give them the ability to grab another blue-chip player in the first. To me, that would indicate that their belief in Weeden isn't very strong.

The late first round should be chock full of teams looking to trade down. The Patriots can trade down with impunity since they hold the 27th and 31st picks. If the Browns have clarity about Weeden's long-term potential being high, then they must assume that other teams have come to that conclusion. Those teams will have ample opportunities to jump ahead of the Browns' No. 37 pick.

The Browns could always trade up from the No. 37 pick themselves to block other teams from acquiring Weeden, but the player available at No. 22 would have to be very compelling to take that route. There is no guarantee that a team sold on Weeden wouldn't pay more to trade up for him than the No. 22 is worth, which would then mean the Browns would actually pay more for Weeden than if they just picked him there.

If the Browns pass on Weeden at 22 and he is still there at 37, their fans may consider that to be a stroke of luck. But, it could just be another sign that they missed on getting a quarterback of the future, because if Weeden is one, he's likely to go in the first round.