Bubble Weekend: Which Teams Will Make Their Move?

ACC: Clemson at Maryland

It's pretty much the consensus that the Tigers are in the NCAA tournament, especially with a couple more wins down the stretch.  A win at Maryland would be a quality notch in their belt.  The Terps are another story.  They overcame an unimpressive nonconference showing to get to 7-4 in the ACC, third in the conference standings.  But then the Terps stumbled, losing to Virginia Tech and Miami back-to-back.  They got their feet back under them with a crucial four-point win at Wake Forest. Maryland now sits at 8-6 in the conference and needs a couple more wins to feel anywhere near comfortable, seeing as how it's up against non-conference losses to American, Ohio, and VCU.

Big East: Pittsburgh at Syracuse

Both of these teams need this win.  Pittsburgh is said to be a safe bet right now, but their margin for error is small.  Syracuse, on the other hand, is in all-out panic mode.  The Orange are 7-8 in the conference and have little to brag about in their nonconference resume.  The win over Georgetown is about all they have to hang their hat on at this point.  With this and two other tough games (at Seton Hall, vs. Marquette) remaining, Cuse needs to turn it on quickly if they don't want to be left out of the dance for a second straight year.

Big Ten: Ohio State at Minnesota

The Big Ten is basically void of bubble drama with four tournament locks already and Ohio State being the only legitimate at-large contender remaining.  That said, the Gophers are the next best option, and could possibly stake a claim if they can down the Buckeyes and pull off a couple more wins.  At this point, Ohio State is probably out.  They are an abysmal 1-9 against the RPI top 50, and have a very mediocre RPI themselves.  This game is a must-win if they want to keep hope alive, because a loss would put them at .500 in the conference, with games still remaining against Purdue and Michigan State.  These games do, however, pose possible big-win opportunities, which the Buckeyes are in need of.

Big XII: Texas A&M at Oklahoma

The Aggies (7-6 Big XII) and Sooners (6-7) are both squarely on the bubble and in need of wins to sway the committee.  Well, only one team will get one on Saturday, in a game where the desperation on both benches will be palpable.  Oklahoma may actually have an edge as it stands right now, by virtue of significantly better computer numbers and good OOC wins against Gonzaga and West Virginia.  This is probably a moot point, however, seeing as how Saturday's winner will gain the upper hand by default.  Oklahoma does also own a very important sweep of fellow bubble team Baylor.  Texas A&M looked poised for the dance, but they hit a three-game slide that may end up costing them dearly if they can't take care of the Sooners.

Pac-10: Southern Cal at Arizona State

This is another wouldn't-mind-a-win vs. have-to-have-a-win game.  USC's win at Arizona was unbelievably huge and may ultimately be what sends the Trojans to the dance.  With good computer numbers and a marquee win over UCLA, they probably only need to win one of their last three to feel pretty safe.  The Sun Devils may need to win this game and the following two at the Oregon schools (both are winnable), because they lack big OOC wins aside from Xavier and have an RPI in the mid-70's.  They do have a win over Stanford and a sweep of bubble brethren Arizona in the conference slate, but they also endured a five-game losing streak in conference play.

SEC: Kentucky at Tennessee

This year's Kentucky team has one of the strangest tournament profiles in recent memory.  They started the season 6-7 with losses to the likes of Gardner-Webb and San Diego.  But the beginning of conference play must have woken the Cats up, because they now sit at 10-3 in the SEC and 16-10 overall.  Can the committee look past the terrible start and appreciate UK's conference resume?  A win in Knoxville would be a great stride for Kentucky if they want real at-large consideration.  And if they can get to 13-3 in the conference, or even 12-4 if they can't beat the Vols, can the committee leave out a team with a record like that in a power conference?  Their situation would be much less stressful if they could have won a couple more games outside of the SEC.

Missouri Valley: Illinois State at Southern Illinois

The Valley is still a one bid league as we speak, but for either of these teams, a win in this game coupled with a run in the MVC tournament would create a very compelling at large case.  For Illinois State it would be a 13-5 conference record and a pretty solid RPI.  For Southern Illinois it would be a 12-6 conference mark and good OOC wins over Saint Mary's, Mississippi State, and Western Kentucky (despite a less than desirable overall record).