A Three Bid Conference: Could it be the ACC?

With all the NCAA tournament bubble talk being bandied about, I get worked up.  I love speculating about who’s in and who’s out and all that tomfoolery.   Everyone wants to know, "Can Conference X get Y invitations to the big dance?" 

Well, I’m bringing some doom and gloom to the fancy party.  I’m here to break the bad news: the ACC might just be like that pale, unibrowed girl on sorority bid day—short a couple of bids.  That is to say, the ACC could very well be a three-bid conference.

OK—little Johnny, put down that knife.  Brenda—turn off your chainsaw.  Everyone just CALM DOWN!  Let’s look at this rationally.

I'll operate on a few assumptions.  First, Duke, UNC, and Clemson are in.  All these teams could lose the rest of their games and still be cutting a rug. 

Second, Wake Forest is now eliminated from the discussion, as were the others below them.  With the loss last night versus Maryland, it puts the Deacs at 16-10.  Dino Gaudio has done an excellent job with this crew and deserves whatever Coach of the Year talk he garners.  However, a pithy non-conference schedule and a weak RPI (76 according to kenpom.com) ultimately do them in.

Our assumptions are on the table.  How does the ACC manage to blow the one or two additional at large bids?

Clemson must pile on.  Le Tigres must throw on their best Magnum to beat bubblers Maryland and Virginia Tech handily.  Surprisingly, the Maryland game is easier than the Virginia Tech game. 

I was underwhelmed by the effort the Terps gave in their win versus Wake Forest.  You’re a team on the edge of NCAA bid and only two guys, Greivis Vasquez and James Gist, show up to play? Weak, weak, weak.  If Clemson sees these games as resume boosters, it very well could thump them good.

Wahoos need to wake up.  It’s painfully obvious: Virginia hasn’t played too well this season. UVa has lost five ACC games by two points or in overtime.  It’s high time for King Karma to kick in and the bounces need to fall in favor of my hometown squad.  If that happens, I foresee a squeaker of an upset at Miami and a beat-down of Maryland at the John Paul Jones arena in Charlottesville. 

The Terps would then be at 8-8 in the ACC, but a pedestrian 18-13 overall.  I simply can't envision them dancing with that record and some zits like Ohio and American at home.

Keystone regular season game: Miami at Florida State.   I think Miami can still make it into the tourney if they drop a shocker to the Cavs.   If they drop a second ugly one to the Seminoles, uh – oh.  That would put them at 7-9 or 6-10 in the ACC, depending on their game against Boston College.  Not good at all.

If Virginia Tech loses to Wake Forest—or even if it doesn’t—this scenario would leave them at .500 or above in the ACC.  Their non-conference schedule is pretty feeble, though, and they have taken advantage of a weak SOS in the ACC.  Therefore, I think they’re out too in this hypothetical.

And finally…

Either a clunker’s got to make a run in the ACC tournament or it has to be a Duke-UNC final.  Give me Georgia Tech in the final, like NC State last year that takes the headlines.  

None of these bubble teams can make a run—maybe even they could all lose their games.  If a trip to the finals occurs for a bubbler, then, as they say, all bets are off.  A tournament where Duke and UNC crush their opponents would have the same effect.

Please, dear reader, distinguish this crazy scenario from what I actually wish to happen, with the exception of Virginia’s wins, obviously.  

I would love nothing more than the ACC to show five teams in the NCAA tournament.  The point of this hyperbolic exercise is to point out to all those hopefuls that it can all slip away so, so easily.