2012 NFL Draft First-Round Odds: Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs GM Scott Pioli has seen a lot of turnover, but he also got his team to the playoffs early in his reign. The Chiefs were closer to the playoffs than most remember last year, despite injuries to their best players on offense and defense early in the season.

How will they use their first-round pick to get back atop the AFC West?

35% - David DeCastro, OG, Stanford - DeCastro is an easy best-player-available pick and he would be an upgrade, but his low positional value makes it far from a lock that he will go to the Chiefs.

35% - Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis - Poe bears some resemblance to Vince Wilfork, so Pioli seeing what old colleague Bill Belichick does with Wilfork in New England may influence him to take the plunge on Poe as a nose tackle who can also shoot gaps and change up looks in defensive fronts.

10% - Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M - The chances of the Chiefs taking Tannehill are at least 50/50 if he is there, but what are the chances that he gets past Miami? Pretty slim, but enough that we have to consider Tannehill one of the most likely picks out of "the pack" after Poe and DeCastro.

7.5% - Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi State - Cox would be a best-player-available pick if he gets out of the top 10. He might not be the best fit at 3-4 DE, but the Chiefs could be parting ways with Tyson Jackson soon, and Cox certainly has the size and strength to man the position.

7.5% - Luke Kuechly, LB, Boston College - The Chiefs have plenty of options at ILB next to Derrick Johnson in the short term, but Kuechly would lock up the job long-term. He is a high-floor prospect.

5% - Michael Brockers, DL, LSU - Even though the team was burned by taking Tyson Jackson third overall with Pioli's first pick as GM, they could go back to the well for a player even more physically talented than Jackson who will come a lot cheaper.