2012 NFL Draft 1st-Round Odds: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

GM Mark Dominik has maybe the most desirable position in the first round. No matter what happens in front of the Buccaneers, the team will get a top-five-worthy prospect at a position of need. Let's break down the odds.

49.98 percent—Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama—In every scenario that the Browns don't take Richardson (50 percent), he's there for the Bucs. The Vikings won't take him third, and he's probably not an attractive enough target to move up to No. 3 for because of the low positional value of running backs.

New head coach Greg Schiano would love to build a strong running game around Richardson, and there is clearly some hesitation about making LeGarrette Blount the feature back. If somehow the Bucs have the choice between the two because Matt Kalil and Ryan Tannehill went third and fourth, I expect the Bucs to take Richardson. 

49.92 percent—Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU—The Cleveland Browns have a 50 percent (at least) chance of taking Trent Richardson at No. 4. One of their other scenarios is a trade down, but that would almost certainly be for QB Ryan Tannehill or OT Matt Kalil, not Richardson.

So basically, the Bucs next move after the Browns take Richardson would be to take Morris Claiborne. Aqib Talib and Ronde Barber might only be around for one more year, so don't assume CB isn't a long-term need just because Tampa signed Eric Wright to a long-term deal. Claiborne is still absolutely worth a top-five pick regardless of anything you've heard about his intelligence this week.

.1 percent—Matt Kalil, OT, USC—The numbers for Richardson and Claiborne aren't 50-50 because there is a scenario where the Vikings trade down with a team selecting Ryan Tannehill and the Browns pass on Matt Kalil, leaving him as a choice along with one or both (if the Browns took Justin Blackmon) of Claiborne and Richardson.

We have to allow for the very small but non-zero chance that the Bucs would choose to not pass on a left tackle of Kalil's talent despite having less need there than they have at RB and CB. Elite left tackles are almost as rare as elite quarterbacks, so they would have to consider Kalil.