Mel Kiper Jr 2012 NFL Mock Draft: 5 Picks Certain to Change from Latest Mock

With the wave of free agency also comes the winds of change in NFL mock drafts, even for widely respected draft analysts.

ESPN draft guru Mel Kiper, Jr. is no different. His third mock draft, which he released on March 7, is likely to have some big changes now that free agency has mostly run its course.

Here's five of the changes we're most certain of:

Buffalo Bills: Melvin Ingram, South Carolina

Drafting a pass-rusher looked like a sure bet for the Bills before free agency started, but they spent big on both Mario Williams and Mark Anderson to fill big needs.

A defensive end is no longer a first-round need. Free agency has created a need at offensive tackle, however, with Demetrius Bell likely to leave Buffalo. Iowa's Riley Reiff is going to be a popular pick at No. 10 overall.

Seattle Seahawks: Ryan Tannehill, Texas A&M

Before the Seahawks signed free-agent quarterback Matt Flynn, drafting Tannehill looked like a real possibility.

Now that they've brought in Flynn to compete with Tarvaris Jackson for the starting job, Tannehill shouldn't be an option. Either way, the Seahawks might not even have the choice. Recent speculation has linked several teams with a move for Tannehill before Seattle picks in the first round.

Arizona Cardinals: Michael Floyd, Notre Dame

Kiper gave Floyd to Arizona under the assumption that the team would address a few spots on the offensive line through free agency.

That never really materialized for the Cardinals, even with a pursuit of Peyton Manning thrown into the process. Floyd just doesn't seem like the smart first-round pick with so many holes up front both offensively and defensively. 

Tennessee Titans: David DeCastro, Stanford

The Titans signed a future Hall of Famer in Steve Hutchinson this offseason, but DeCastro may still be a viable option if he falls to No. 20.

In my mind, that scenario is looking less and less likely. DeCastro looks like a solid bet to be taken in the teens, which would force the Titans to look elsewhere. Expect Kiper's next mock to reflect that.

San Francisco 49ers: Stephen Hill, Georgia Tech

Hill was a logical choice for the 49ers when the team was looking at Michael Crabtree and little else at receiver before free agency. Now that San Francisco has added Randy Moss and Mario Manningham over the last three weeks, drafting Hill in the first round seems like a long shot.

The 49ers may still look for a receiver in this draft, but taking one in the first round doesn't appear to be the best course of action for a team so close to the Super Bowl.