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Bracketology: Bubble Teams Who Have Gone Bust

Jason FrayMar 10, 2012

To the respective fanbases of Miami, Northwestern, Oregon and Seton Hall: You won’t be seeing your teams in the NCAA tournament.

The sacred bubble has burst.

A combination of weak strength of schedules, a lack of quality wins and poor conference play illustrate why none of the aforementioned quartet will be dancing.

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Let's take a look at each individual case...

Miami Hurricanes

The Hurricanes blew their chance to cement a spot in the field with a lackluster showing in the ACC tournament.

After knocking off Georgia Tech in the first round, Miami ran into Florida State. The Seminoles took control of the game right from the get go, and the Hurricanes were soundly beaten.

A deep run into the ACC tournament was imperative to get Miami off the proverbial bubble. However, it just wasn't meant to be for first-year coach Jim Larranaga.

For the season, Miami sits at a respectable 19-12, with a 9-7 record in conference play. Despite the Hurricanes' solid record, there are a few things going against them.

Miami's record against the RPI top 50 is 2-8. In addition, its record against the RPI top 100 is 3-11. That's not exactly playing up to par with the "big boys."

Due to the amount of mediocre teams earning automatic bids via their conference tournaments, it will ultimately keep Miami home and out of the field.

Northwestern Wildcats

Unfortunately for the tormented Northwestern fanbase, the Wildcats will have to wait another year to get into the NCAA tournament.

Northwestern has never made it into the NCAA tournament. Despite that, the Wildcats actually had a viable shot at earning a berth this season.

They compiled an 18-13 record overall, with a 8-10 conference record in a tough Big Ten Conference.

Heading into the conference tournament, the Wildcats were no lock by any means. A couple victories would have gone a long way in solidifying a spot in the Dance.

However, a first-round exit in the Big Ten tournament against Minnesota dashed any dreams of Northwestern dancing.

Bill Carmody's squad went a startling 1-10 against the RPI top 50 (with the win coming against Michigan State). In addition, it lost a number of extremely close games that would have enhanced its resume greatly had it been victorious.

A lack of quality wins is the main culprit behind the Wildcats' likely NIT berth.

Oregon Ducks

Similarly to Northwestern, the Ducks needed to make a deep run in the Pac-12 tournament to give themselves a change at an at-large berth.

It just didn't work out that way.

The Ducks were unceremoniously bounced from their conference tournament by Colorado. It not only sent the Ducks back to Eugene, but it probably sent them to the NIT as well.

The Pac-12 Conference just wasn't very good this year. The number of automatic bids won't get above two. In essence, unless you were Washington or Cal, you had to win the conference tournament outright to garner a bid to the Big Dance.

In Oregon's case, it simply did not do enough outside of conference play to get an at-large bid. For the season, Oregon had an impressive 22-9 record, with a 13-5 conference record.

Nonconference play is what ultimately killed Oregon's chances.

It went 0-5 against the RPI top 50 and didn't capitalize in any of the high-profile nonconference tilts (against the likes of Vanderbilt, BYU and Virginia).

As a result, the Ducks won't be dancing.

Seton Hall Pirates

Seton Hall is the absolute epitome of a bubble team.

Sitting at 20-12 overall, 8-10 in conference play, the Pirates need a bit of help if they are to sneak in to the tournament.

The record against top 50 RPI teams hurts Seton Hall's chances tremendously. It is only 3-8 against quality opponents.

Another factor looked at by the selection committee is the recent play of the prospective team. More often than not, a team will get the benefit of the doubt if it is playing its best basketball toward the end of the season.

That's not the story with Seton Hall. In the Pirates' last 15 games, they've only won five. That record includes a second-round exit in the Big East tournament to Louisville.

Due to their lack of good wins and recent play of late, the Pirates won't be dancing.

They Control the NBA This Summer ✍️

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